Palantir’s Friday drop is being treated as a verdict on a quarter the company has not published. It is not that verdict. Nasdaq’s historical file shows the Class A shares closed on Friday, 30 October 2026, at $184.11. The Palantir stock prediction from that close is a bull of $344.78, a base of $230.74, and a bear of $176.53, across 42 sessions through 31 December 2026.
The missing piece in the consensus coverage is the gap between Palantir’s own range and the number the tape is already using. The 3 August exhibit still guides third-quarter revenue to $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion. The MarketBeat page fetched Monday morning puts consensus revenue at $2.18 billion. A print inside the company range can miss that consensus. The same ranges imply an adjusted operating margin of 59.70 percent to 60.00 percent, under the June quarter’s 62 percent. Monday’s release was not out. The premarket sale is not the close.
Key facts
- Friday 30 October 2026 official close: $184.11, down $12.31, or 6.27 percent, from Thursday’s $196.42. Volume was 27,070,010 shares, against 20,102,920 on Thursday. Source: Nasdaq historical file, rows dated 29 and 30 October 2026, saved before the Monday open.
- Year-end distribution from that close: bull $344.78, base $230.74, bear $176.53. That is 42 sessions and the last 90 daily log returns, using the sample standard deviation. Source: FinanceFeeds calculation, 2 November 2026, on the Nasdaq file.
- Second-quarter revenue was $1,935,464 thousand, up 93 percent from $1,003,697 thousand. Source: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, filed 4 August 2026.
- U.S. commercial revenue was $764 million, up 149 percent from $306 million. U.S. revenue was $1,573,047 thousand, 81 percent of the quarter. Source: the same 10-Q, filed 4 August 2026.
- Third-quarter outlook: revenue of $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion and adjusted income from operations of $1.292 billion to $1.296 billion. Full-year revenue guidance: $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion. Source: Exhibit 99.1 to the 3 August 2026 8-K.
- Consensus on the page fetched 2 November 2026: earnings of $0.4061 and revenue of $2.18 billion, against a year-earlier $0.21 and $1.18 billion on that page. Source: MarketBeat.
- Results for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 were scheduled for Monday 2 November 2026, after the U.S. close, with a webcast at 5:00 p.m. ET. Source: the 12 October 2026 announcement.
- Cash was $2,030,047 thousand and marketable securities were $7,379,052 thousand at 30 June 2026. The exhibit separately highlights $9.2 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasuries. Those are not the same line. Source: the 4 August 10-Q and the 3 August exhibit.
What Friday’s tape did, and why the obvious reading is wrong
The obvious reading is that the commercial story cracked because the stock fell through both moving averages into an earnings session. The file says something narrower. Friday was a completed official close, one session before a release the company had already dated. Thursday finished at $196.42. Friday opened at $193.625, traded between $180.81 and $193.92, and closed at $184.11. The decline is $12.31, or 6.27 percent of Thursday’s close, which matches the percentage on the Nasdaq info file’s closed line.
Friday’s log return is -0.0647218187, about -1.57 sample deviations of 0.04131669636567907. It is a large down day. It is not a revenue print. The 20-day average is $197.2455, so the close is $13.1355, or 6.66 percent, under it. The 50-day average is $186.9048, so the close is $2.7948, or 1.50 percent, under it. Both means use closes through Friday only.
From 26 October through 30 October the highest daily high was $201.83 and the lowest daily low was $180.81. The close is $17.72 under that high and $3.30 above that low. The info file, still marked Pre-Market at 6:41 a.m. ET, showed a primary sale of $186.3412. Its closed line is the spot, $184.11. The file high of $212.9399 was 12 October, and the highest close was $209.05 on 9 October. Friday is 13.54 percent under that high and 11.93 percent under that close. The selloff under $190 was a separate note. This page uses the 30 October close.
The arithmetic behind $344.78 and $176.53
The path uses the last 90 daily log returns ending Friday. The mean, mu, is 0.00537478409052954. The sample standard deviation, sigma, divides by 89 and is 0.04131669636567907. N is 42: weekday sessions from Monday 2 November through Thursday 31 December 2026, skipping Thanksgiving on 26 November and Christmas on 25 December. The early closes on 27 November and 24 December still count. November contributes 20 sessions and December 22.
The square root of 42 is 6.48074069840786. N times mu is 0.2257409318022407. Sigma times that square root is 0.2677627956608165, and 1.5 times that quantity is 0.40164419349122477. The bull exponent is 0.6273851252934655. The bear exponent is -0.042021863858575814. e to the power of N times mu is 1.2532509457538956.
Base equals 184.11 times exp(42 times mu). Bull equals 184.11 times exp(42 times mu plus 1.5 times sigma times the square root of 42). Bear equals 184.11 times exp(42 times mu minus 1.0 times sigma times the square root of 42). The raw products are 344.7841366593116, 230.73603162274975, and 176.53365555212693. Rounding half up, adding 0.0000000001 before rounding to cents, prints $344.78, $230.74, and $176.53. From those rounded dollars the bull is 87.27 percent above the close, the base is 25.33 percent above it, and the bear is 4.12 percent under it. The bull is above the spot, so the no-drift override does not apply.
One session dominates sigma and stays in the sample. On 4 August 2026 the close was $162.66, against $125.65 on 3 August. The simple gain is $37.01, or 29.45 percent. The log return, 0.2581618687490279, is 6.25 sample deviations. Dropping that day would pull the bull and the bear toward the base. This calculation does not drop it.
Shorter horizons were computed and not used. Ten sessions, ending Friday 13 November, print $236.34, $194.28, and $170.48. Twenty sessions, ending Monday 30 November, print a bull of $270.48, a base of $205.00, and a bear of $170.42. That bull is within $1 of an older $270 title, so the horizon collides. The year-end pair does not. The bull is $11.23 under the older $356.01, and the bear is $8.68 above the older $167.85. A search of English FinanceFeeds titles on 2 November found no live pair within $1 of $344.78 and $176.53. The banned neighborhood also includes $285 and $118, $382 and $70, $245 and $98, $213 and $184, and $148 and $108.
What the June documents show
The quarter on file ended 30 June 2026. The 3 August exhibit and the Form 10-Q filed 4 August agree on revenue of $1,935,464 thousand, against $1,003,697 thousand, on net income attributable to common stockholders of $1,061,890 thousand, and on diluted earnings of $0.41. That net income exceeded the year-ago quarter’s entire revenue by $58,193 thousand. The diluted weighted average, 2,568,694 thousand shares, is for earnings per share, not for a market value.
United States revenue in the 10-Q was $1,573,047 thousand. U.S. commercial revenue was $764 million, up 149 percent from $306 million. The exhibit adds U.S. government revenue of $809 million, up 90 percent year over year. GAAP operating income was $912,004 thousand. Adjusted operating income was $1,194,472 thousand, a 62 percent margin. The bridge is stock-based compensation of $265,209 thousand plus payroll taxes of $17,259 thousand. The Rule of 40 score of 155 percent is 93 plus 62. The 93 percent growth piece covered that quarter. It is not this year-end path. Cash plus marketable securities was $9,409,099 thousand, against total liabilities of $1,793,680 thousand.
| Measure | Figure | Source | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Official close | $184.11 | Nasdaq historical file | 30 October 2026 |
| 20-day average | $197.2455 | Closes through Friday | 30 October 2026 |
| 50-day average | $186.9048 | Closes through Friday | 30 October 2026 |
| Q2 revenue | $1,935,464 thousand | Form 10-Q | Filed 4 August 2026 |
| U.S. commercial revenue | $764 million | Form 10-Q | Filed 4 August 2026 |
| Q3 revenue guide | $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion | 3 August exhibit | 3 August 2026 |
| Consensus revenue | $2.18 billion | MarketBeat | Fetched 2 November 2026 |
| Year-end bull, base, bear | $344.78, $230.74, $176.53 | This distribution | 42 sessions to 31 December 2026 |
The guide versus the number headlines will call a beat
The company did not print a margin on the third-quarter box. The arithmetic is ours. Low income over high revenue, 1.292 divided by 2.164, is 59.70 percent. High income over low revenue, 1.296 divided by 2.160, is 60.00 percent. The other corners sit between them. Every pairing lands under the June quarter’s 62 percent adjusted margin. A quarter that hits the guide can show a lower adjusted margin than the one just reported, even when revenue is inside the company’s band.
MarketBeat’s fetched page expects $0.4061 on $2.18 billion, and it records the 3 August result as $0.41 against a $0.3446 estimate. The printed consensus is $16 million above the top of the company range. A reported $2.164 billion would be the top of Palantir’s guide and still short of that consensus. A figure under $2.160 billion would miss the company’s floor. A figure above $2.164 billion would clear the guide and, if it also clears $2.18 billion, the consensus as printed. None of the three had been published when this path was run.
On MarketBeat’s $1.18 billion year-ago quarter, the guide is 83.05 percent to 83.39 percent growth. Palantir did not print that rate. The exhibit’s 82 percent figure belongs to full-year revenue of $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion. Full-year adjusted operating income is $4.889 billion to $4.897 billion, adjusted free cash flow is $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion, and U.S. commercial revenue is guided above $3.424 billion, at least 134 percent growth. The stock path does not assume those ranges move.
Who holds the other side
The listed line is Class A common stock, par value $0.001. The 10-Q cover, as of 27 July 2026, reports 2,300,713,329 Class A shares, 101,340,151 Class B shares, and 1,005,000 Class F shares, together 2,403,058,480. At Friday’s $184.11 that July count is $442,427,096,752.80. Class A alone is $423,584,331,002.19. Neither product is a live Nasdaq market cap. The count is six weeks older than the close. Against the $8.154 billion midpoint of the full-year revenue guide, the three-class product is 54.26 times revenue. The multiple is the tension. The cash balance is not. A business with $9.409 billion of cash and securities and $1.794 billion of liabilities does not need Monday’s print to fund itself.
Named customers here are the ones Palantir’s own account listed on 21 October, not a revenue table. The post said: “We are helping our customers build superintelligence they own, with data they control.” It named McCarthy Building, Tampa General, NVIDIA, L3Harris, and Ondas, each with a short description of a sovereign-AI workflow. The post is not a revenue table. The info file marks PLTR as a Nasdaq-100 name. No fund weight is stated here.
What management has said, and what it has not
Alex Karp, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer, said in the 3 August exhibit: “This quarter was otherworldly: our U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year, our overall revenue grew 93% year-over-year, and our Rule of 40 score climbed to 155%.” That is a June-quarter sentence. It is not a sentence about the quarter ended 30 September.
Matt Ashare, writing in Channel Dive on 5 August 2026, quoted Karp’s letter: “Our entire business nearly doubled in the span of 12 months,” and “Put simply, we have now generated more profit in a single quarter than we did in total revenue in the same period the year before,” pointing to about $1.1 billion. The letter page returned a script shell when opened here, so the quotation is Channel Dive’s. The 10-Q table behind it is $1,061,890 thousand of net income against $1,003,697 thousand of year-ago revenue. Channel Dive’s account is the page where both sentences appear.
Ryan Taylor, Chief Revenue Officer and Chief Legal Officer, said on that page: “Enterprises that are not using Palantir are seeing their token meters spinning endlessly just to get slop without any correlation to value.” He added: “This token model may be working for the labs, but it is not working for anyone else. It’s breaking corporate budgets without results to justify the expense.” That is the customer-budget claim. It is not a third-quarter number.
The company account put the same line on X on 21 October, naming those five customers. On 24 October @chrisdoesinvest wrote that Palantir guided $2.16 billion and that Wall Street expected about $2.18 billion, which matches the exhibit rounded and the MarketBeat page. That post is here. The rest of it is not a filing. Investor-relations HTML was a script shell. SEC submissions on 2 November showed the 3 August 8-K and the 4 August 10-Q, and no results after them. The webcast time in the 12 October announcement is 5:00 p.m. ET. A MarketBeat banner says 6:00 p.m. ET. The company text wins.
Street targets are not this title
FinanceFeeds reported on 17 October that Goldman Sachs upgraded Palantir to Buy on 8 October, lifting the target from $204 to $230, and that Barclays analyst Anthony Valentini started at Overweight the same day at $265. Baird went from $200 to $250 on 13 October. Mizuho went from $215 to $245 on 15 October. Gabriela Borges, in that account, asked whether the best of the AI opportunity was already captured and whether the engineer-heavy model could scale. The 23 October note lists Citi at $250, Barclays at $265, Baird at $250, DA Davidson at $250, Mizuho at $245, Piper Sandler at $231, and Goldman at $230.
Goldman’s $230 is $0.74 under the base of $230.74. That is a twelve-month target next to 42 sessions of drift, not a title collision. Barclays at $265 is $79.78 under the bull. Citi at $250 is $94.78 under the bull. The Gartner and Citi note and the Knox FedRAMP note are tape stories. Neither is this year-end model.
Three dates, and what would change the path
After the close on 2 November, revenue is under $2.160 billion, inside $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion, or above $2.164 billion. Inside the range and under $2.18 billion means the company met its guide and missed the MarketBeat consensus. A result inside both guided ranges still implies about 60 percent, not another 62 percent quarter. At 5:00 p.m. ET the webcast can move the full-year band. This path assumes it does not. The path was fit to closes.
If that drift persists through Thursday 31 December 2026, the levels stay $344.78, $230.74, and $176.53. The unused ten-session checkpoint, Friday 13 November, is $236.34, $194.28, and $170.48. A close that day through either band would say the recent drift has changed. It would not rewrite the year-end call by itself.
Bull, base, and bear
| Case | Price | Versus $184.11 | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $344.78 | Up 87.27 percent | Drift holds for 42 sessions and the path finishes 1.5 sample deviations above it. The 4 August jump stays inside sigma. |
| Base | $230.74 | Up 25.33 percent | Only the mean log return holds. No guidance raise is required, and no analyst target is an input. |
| Bear | $176.53 | Down 4.12 percent | Drift minus one sample deviation. A print under $2.160 billion is a fundamental version of a weak tape, not a term in the formula. |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Palantir stock prediction for 31 December 2026?
The bull is $344.78 and the bear is $176.53. The base, which is not in the headline, is $230.74. All three use Friday’s $184.11 Nasdaq close and 42 sessions through 31 December 2026. The path is the stock’s own log-return distribution. It is not a twelve-month analyst target, and it is not a guess at Monday’s revenue print.
Which close is the model using?
The cited close is $184.11 on Friday 30 October 2026, the last completed row in the Nasdaq historical file when this was run. Monday 2 November had not opened at 6:41 a.m. ET. The info file’s primary sale of $186.3412 was a premarket print. It is not the spot. A later Monday bar does not replace Friday in this calculation.
Why is the bull so far above the Street targets?
The bull adds 1.5 sample deviations to 42 sessions of drift. That is why $344.78 sits $79.78 above Barclays’ $265 and $94.78 above Citi’s $250, both twelve-month targets FinanceFeeds recorded through 23 October. The title is not those targets. The 4 August session, a 29.45 percent jump, remains inside the 90-day sample and widens sigma.
Does this path assume Monday’s quarter beats?
No. The formula has no revenue term. Monday’s release was not out. The 3 August exhibit still guides third-quarter revenue to $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion. MarketBeat’s Monday page shows a $2.18 billion consensus, about $16 million above that top. A print inside the company range can miss that consensus. The year-end prices do not move until the daily closes do.
Where does the close sit versus the moving averages?
Friday’s $184.11 sits $13.1355, or 6.66 percent, under the 20-day average of $197.2455, and $2.7948, or 1.50 percent, under the 50-day average of $186.9048. It is $17.72 under the prior five-session high of $201.83 and $3.30 above the five-session low of $180.81. Both averages are simple means of official closes through Friday.
Is the $230.74 base Goldman’s target?
No. The base is $230.74, which is 74 cents above the $230 Goldman target FinanceFeeds recorded from the 8 October upgrade. One figure is 42 sessions of this stock’s mean log return. The other is a twelve-month analyst price. The nearness is a coincidence, and it is not a title collision. The collision test looks at the bull and the bear.
This is not financial advice.