Updated 3 November 2026. Brent crude is trading near $106 a barrel on Tuesday, up about 1.1 percent (Trading Economics, 3 November), after Monday’s 7.6 percent plunge to a $104.77 settlement on signs of US-Iran diplomacy (CNBC). Oil is recovering only part of that loss after the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials, that the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Verdict: diplomacy took out a large part of the war premium on Monday, and a single strike report has not put it back; with Americans voting in the midterms today, Brent is stuck between the talks and the risk of escalation after the vote. Reference levels: $100 below, $113 above.
Key facts
- Price: about $105.96 on Tuesday 3 November, up 1.13 percent (Trading Economics). Reuters had Brent up 48 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $105.25 at 01:04 GMT; WTI was at $96.93.
- Monday: Brent settled at $104.77, down $8.66 or 7.63 percent; WTI fell 7.4 percent to $96.46, its biggest daily loss since 27 July (CNBC). Brent traded as low as about $103.30 intraday (The Nation, FXEmpire).
- Why it fell: Trump said Iran wants to “make a deal and that could happen”, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had granted the government authority to pursue peace talks (CNBC).
- Why it is up today: the Wall Street Journal reported a US strike on Qeshm Island. Some US officials described it as defensive, aimed at stopping Iran from targeting commercial ships. US Central Command had not confirmed it at the time of the reports (Reuters via Yahoo Finance).
- October: oil gained more than 10 percent last month, and Brent ended October at a six-month high, as traders priced a possible escalation after the midterms (CNBC, Reuters).
- The talks: Iranian and Qatari talks ended with altered proposals but no breakthrough; Tehran says contacts with the US are continuing (Reuters via Yahoo Finance).
What changed since Monday
Our Monday Brent page was written with Brent near $110, after OPEC+ held its December targets, and put the bear case at $104. Monday’s session went straight through it: the settlement at $104.77 and the intraday low near $103.30 were both below that level. The move came from the diplomacy headlines, not from supply. The desk’s report on Monday’s oil drop has the session in detail.
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said a deal is possible if Washington “demonstrates goodwill”, and that mediators are discussing Iran’s September UN General Assembly proposal. Iran wants US sanctions lifted, the US military presence in the region cut back and the blockade lifted (CNBC). Those are large demands, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump “hasn’t made a decision” on whether to strike Iran again.
How much war premium is left?
Analysts do not expect it to disappear on headlines alone. Ryan McKay, director of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said “we do not anticipate a complete erosion of the risk premium via diplomacy headlines alone”, given continued tanker and Houthi attacks (CNBC). KCM Trade’s Tim Waterer said the Qeshm report “added a degree of risk premium back into the oil price” just as markets were pricing a diplomatic path (Reuters via Yahoo Finance).
The physical picture explains why. The war began in late February and has sharply reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about a fifth of global crude and natural gas supplies (Reuters). Until ships move through it again, any break in the talks can send prices back up quickly. Trading Economics’ models put Brent at about $116.80 by the end of the quarter.
The levels traders are using
FXEmpire’s analysis puts first support at $103.29, near Monday’s low, then $101.05, with $100 as significant support. Resistance sits at $105.89 and then $107.50, and the analysis keeps a slight bearish lean while Brent stays below $107.50. Traders Union names a $100.34-$107.85 range, with a sustained break either way as the signal for the next trend. On the upside, ActionForex marks strong resistance at $113.20, close to Friday’s $113.43 settlement.
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $100 | The Qatar-mediated talks produce a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after the midterms, and the Qeshm report fades without an Iranian response. | FXEmpire’s significant support at $100, the bottom of Traders Union’s $100.34-$107.85 range; about 5.6 percent below Tuesday’s $106. |
| Base | $103-$108 | Talks continue with no breakthrough and no new strikes; Brent holds Monday’s low but stays below the bearish line. | Between FXEmpire support at $103.29 and resistance at $107.50. |
| Bull | $113 | The Qeshm strike is confirmed, Iran retaliates against shipping or the talks collapse after the vote. | ActionForex resistance at $113.20 and Friday’s $113.43 settlement; about 6.6 percent above Tuesday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Tuesday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified price, not forecasts.
What to watch
- Confirmation of the Qeshm strike and any Iranian response against shipping.
- The midterm results: markets have priced a risk of renewed fighting once the election is over.
- The Qatar talks: any deal on the Strait of Hormuz would remove most of the remaining premium.
- Gold: cheaper oil helped gold on Monday; see our Tuesday gold page for how the two are linked through Fed hike bets.
Quick take: Brent is near $106 on Tuesday, up about 1 percent after Monday’s 7.6 percent plunge to $104.77 on US-Iran diplomacy. A Wall Street Journal report of a US strike on Qeshm Island added some risk premium back, but not much. TD Securities expects part of the premium to stay while tanker attacks continue. Expect $103-$108 while the talks run; $100 needs a Hormuz deal, $113 needs the talks to break down after the midterms.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
Brent is trading near $106 a barrel on Tuesday 3 November, up about 1.1 percent on the day (Trading Economics). Reuters had it at $105.25 in early Asian trade.
Why did oil fall 7 percent on Monday?
The US and Iran both signalled openness to a diplomatic solution. Trump said a deal “could happen” and Iran’s president said the government had authority to pursue peace talks. Brent settled 7.63 percent lower at $104.77 (CNBC).
Why is oil up today?
The Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials, that the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. The strike had not been confirmed by US Central Command at the time (Reuters via Yahoo Finance).
What is the difference between Brent and WTI today?
Brent settled at $104.77 on Monday and WTI at $96.46, a gap of about $8. In early Tuesday trade Brent was at $105.25 and WTI at $96.93 (CNBC, Reuters).
What are the key Brent levels this week?
Support at $103.29, $101.05 and $100; resistance at $105.89, $107.50 and $113.20 (FXEmpire, ActionForex).
Will oil prices rise after the midterms?
That depends on Iran. Markets priced a risk of escalation after the vote, and Trump has said he will not attack Iran before it. A breakdown in talks would lift prices; a Hormuz deal would push them lower.
Sources: Trading Economics, 3 November (Tuesday price, end-of-quarter model forecast); Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 3 November (early Asian prices, Qeshm Island report, talks status, Hormuz flows, KCM Trade comment); CNBC, 2 November (Monday settlements, Trump, Rubio, Pezeshkian and Araghchi comments, TD Securities comment, October gains); The Nation and FXEmpire (Monday intraday low); FXEmpire, Traders Union and ActionForex, 3 November (technical levels).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.