Updated 3 November 2026. Spot gold is trading near $3,921 an ounce on Tuesday, down $25.56 or 0.65 percent, giving back part of Monday’s rebound from Friday’s one-year low of $3,870.27 (Trading Economics, 3 November). Americans vote in the midterm elections today, and oil is edging higher after a report of a US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island. Verdict: the bounce has stalled below $3,950 and strong US factory data has kept December hike odds near 75 percent, so gold needs a weak jobs report on Friday 6 November to get back above $4,000. Reference levels: $3,830 below, $4,075 above.
Key facts
- Price: $3,921.47 on Tuesday 3 November, down 0.65 percent on the day (Trading Economics). Mitrade put gold near $3,946-$3,948 at Monday’s close and early Tuesday, after the rebound from the annual low.
- Monday: gold rose more than 1 percent to above $3,940 as Brent crude settled 7.6 percent lower at $104.77 on signs of US-Iran diplomacy, easing inflation worries (Trading Economics, CNBC).
- The data that capped it: the ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 55.5 for October against 54.7 expected, with prices paid at 75.2, and the 10-year Treasury yield sat near 4.90 percent (Mitrade, 3 November).
- The Fed: markets price about a 75 percent chance of a December rate hike (Trading Economics, Mitrade). The fed funds rate stands at 4.00 percent and US inflation was 3.7 percent in September (Trading Economics).
- Oil: Brent rose about 0.5 percent to $105.25 in early Asian trade after the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials, that the US struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters via Yahoo Finance).
- The calendar: midterm elections and JOLTS job openings today; October payrolls on Friday 6 November.
What changed since Monday
Our Monday gold page called the move a bounce, not yet a turn, with $3,920 as the first resistance. Gold did push through it, reaching about $3,947 by the close, but the move did not hold into Tuesday. The price is back near $3,921, right on that line.
Two things worked against it. First, the ISM survey showed US factories growing faster than expected, with the prices-paid index at 75.2, which supports the case for another Fed hike. Second, oil stopped falling. Monday’s 7.6 percent slide in Brent was the main reason gold rose, because cheaper energy lowers the inflation outlook. The Qeshm Island report has put a small risk premium back into crude; KCM Trade’s chief market analyst Tim Waterer said the report “added a degree of risk premium back into the oil price” (Reuters via Yahoo Finance). Our Tuesday Brent page covers the oil side.
Why $4,000 is the line that matters
Dilin Wu, strategist at Pepperstone, said gold drew speculative buying after the annual low, but that “the technical structure has been severely damaged” by the breaks below $4,000 and $3,900 (via Mitrade). Analysts quoted by Mitrade say gold has to reclaim and hold $4,000 before the downside pressure eases. A related Mitrade note described Monday’s rise as a short-covering bounce rather than new money, with gold ETF holdings still shrinking.
Mitrade’s levels map the range. Support sits at $3,885-$3,904, then $3,829-$3,849 and $3,780-$3,800. Resistance sits at $3,971-$3,982, then $4,074-$4,083 and $4,104-$4,115. Tuesday’s price is just above the first support zone.
The bigger forecasts lean lower. Trading Economics’ models put gold at about $3,815 by the end of the quarter and about $3,530 in 12 months. Gold is down about 5.3 percent over the past month and far below its all-time high of $5,608.35 in January (Trading Economics). For the full October damage, see our gold and silver October review.
Does the midterm vote matter for gold?
Directly, not much. Indirectly, through oil. Trading Economics notes that the Trump administration and Republicans face political pressure over high energy costs tied to the Iran conflict, and Trump has said he will not attack Iran before the midterms (CNBC). Markets had priced a risk of escalation after the vote. If talks stall once the election is over and oil climbs again, the inflation case for a December hike gets stronger, which is negative for gold. If the Qatar-mediated talks produce a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, oil falls and gold gets relief.
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,830 | Oil climbs after the midterms, JOLTS and Friday’s payrolls come in strong, hike odds rise above 75 percent and gold loses Friday’s $3,870 low. | Mitrade support at $3,829-$3,849; about 2.3 percent below Tuesday’s $3,921. |
| Base | $3,885-$3,980 | Gold holds the first support zone and trades sideways until Friday’s jobs report. | Between Mitrade’s $3,885-$3,904 support and $3,971-$3,982 resistance. |
| Bull | $4,075 | A US-Iran deal pushes oil lower, payrolls disappoint, hike bets fade and gold reclaims $4,000. | Mitrade resistance at $4,074-$4,083; about 3.9 percent above Tuesday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Tuesday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified spot price, not forecasts.
What to watch
- $3,885-$3,904: the first support zone. A close below it opens Friday’s low.
- Brent and the Qeshm report: US Central Command had not confirmed the strike at the time of writing. Confirmation and an Iranian response would lift oil and weigh on gold.
- JOLTS today and the midterm results overnight.
- Friday’s payrolls: the main test for December hike odds. Silver traders face the same print; see our silver week-ahead page.
Quick take: Gold is near $3,921 on midterm election day, down 0.65 percent after Monday’s rebound stalled below $3,950. A strong ISM report kept December hike odds near 75 percent and oil is edging up on a reported US strike on Qeshm Island. Pepperstone says gold has to reclaim $4,000 before the pressure eases. Expect $3,885-$3,980 into Friday’s payrolls; $3,830 needs a strong jobs report and higher oil, $4,075 needs a US-Iran deal and a weak report.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold is trading near $3,921 an ounce on Tuesday 3 November, down about 0.65 percent on the day (Trading Economics).
Why is gold down today?
Monday’s rebound ran into resistance as strong ISM manufacturing data kept December Fed hike odds near 75 percent, and oil edged higher after a reported US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island (Mitrade, Reuters via Yahoo Finance).
What was gold’s one-year low?
$3,870.27, hit on Friday 30 October during a tech and AI stock selloff that forced investors to sell gold for cash (Trading Economics).
Do the US midterm elections affect gold?
Mainly through oil. Markets had priced a risk of renewed US-Iran fighting after the vote. Higher oil would add to inflation and hike bets, which weighs on gold; a peace deal would do the opposite.
What are the key gold levels this week?
Support at $3,885-$3,904, $3,829-$3,849 and $3,780-$3,800; resistance at $3,971-$3,982 and $4,074-$4,083, with $4,000 as the psychological level (Mitrade).
What do forecasters expect for gold?
Trading Economics’ models see about $3,815 by the end of the quarter and about $3,530 in 12 months. Pepperstone’s Dilin Wu says the technical structure is damaged until gold reclaims $4,000.
Sources: Trading Economics, 3 November (Tuesday price, Monday move, hike odds, Fed rate, inflation, forecasts, all-time high); Mitrade, 3 November (Monday close, ISM data, yields, support and resistance, Pepperstone comments, ETF flows); Reuters via Yahoo Finance, 3 November (Qeshm Island report, Brent price, KCM Trade comment); CNBC, 2 November (Brent settlement, midterms and Iran).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.