Robinhood Markets reported record third-quarter revenue on October 27, 2026, as rapid growth in prediction markets and options trading offset a sharp year-over-year decline in cryptocurrency transaction revenue.
Total net revenue reached $1.424 billion for the three months ended September 30, increasing 12% from $1.274 billion a year earlier and 9% from the preceding quarter.
The result was broadly consistent with Wall Street expectations, although slightly below the approximately $1.43 billion consensus cited by market analysts. Net income declined 14% year over year to $476 million, while diluted earnings per share fell 16% to $0.51, missing analysts’ $0.55 estimate.
Shares declined in after-hours trading following the announcement as investors assessed weaker cryptocurrency activity and higher operating expenses. The results illustrate Robinhood’s changing revenue composition, with prediction markets becoming a larger contributor as digital asset trading volumes weaken.
Prediction Markets Overtake Cryptocurrency Trading Revenue
Robinhood generated $173 million from event contracts during the third quarter, more than six times the revenue recorded a year earlier. The business also expanded 11% from the second quarter, when prediction markets generated approximately $156 million.
Event contract trading volume increased more than sevenfold year over year to a record 16.4 billion contracts. The growth placed prediction markets ahead of cryptocurrency trading as a revenue contributor, reflecting rising customer participation in sports, economic and other event-based contracts.
Options trading remained Robinhood’s largest transaction-based revenue category, generating $399 million, up 31% year over year.
Equities transaction revenue increased 41% to $121 million. Together, these businesses helped total transaction-based revenue rise 19% to $867 million despite weakness in cryptocurrencies. Robinhood has continued expanding its prediction-market offerings, including additional contract categories and trading features.
The company also reported that Rothera, its prediction-market business, exceeded $100 million in annualized revenue during its first full quarter of operations. However, the rapid expansion has attracted questions about whether event contracts are generating genuinely incremental customers or primarily increasing activity among existing traders.
Prediction markets also face continuing regulatory scrutiny in the United States, particularly concerning the distinction between federally regulated derivatives and products resembling traditional sports wagering.
Crypto Revenue Falls Despite Quarterly Recovery
Cryptocurrency transaction revenue declined 55% year over year to $120 million, reflecting reduced trading activity compared with the stronger market conditions of 2025. However, the figure increased 20% from approximately $100 million in the second quarter.
Robinhood Chain contributed $26 million during its first full quarter on mainnet, according to additional company disclosures. Excluding that contribution, cryptocurrency trading revenue was approximately $94 million, down 6% sequentially.
Total cryptocurrency notional trading volume fell 38% year over year to approximately $50 billion. Trading through the Robinhood application declined 48% to $21 billion, while Bitstamp volume decreased 28% to $29 billion. The figures indicate that weaker cryptocurrency activity persisted despite Robinhood’s expansion into blockchain infrastructure and institutional trading services.
Beyond transaction revenue, net interest income declined 9% to $415 million, while other revenue increased 61% to $142 million. Operating expenses rose 16% to $739 million, contributing to the earnings shortfall.
Robinhood ended September with $396 billion in total platform assets, up 19% year over year, supported by $15.7 billion in quarterly net deposits. Investment accounts increased to 30.4 million, while Robinhood Gold subscriptions reached 5.2 million, up 34%. The company also narrowed its full-year adjusted expense outlook to $2.675 billion–$2.75 billion.
For investors, the central question is whether prediction-market growth can continue compensating for cryptocurrency revenue volatility while supporting profitability as Robinhood expands into additional financial services.