The Bitcoin price was $73,444 at 11:39 GMT on Thursday, down 0.79% over 24 hours and 8.66% over the week, per TradingView. US spot exchange-traded funds have now recorded five consecutive sessions of net redemptions, the streak that began on 5 November and ran through Solana and XRP funds as well.
Producer price data for October lands on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule. It follows an October consumer price report that put core inflation at 0.3% for a third straight month and moved the December meeting from a question of whether to one of how much, which is the backdrop the Bitcoin price is trading against.
Five Straight Sessions of Spot ETF Redemptions
SoSoValue’s tally shows the twelve US spot funds shed $299.90 million on 11 November, more than three times the previous session. That followed $95.00 million on 10 November, $201.08 million on 9 November, $411.92 million on 6 November and $430.20 million on 5 November.
Five sessions have taken $1.44 billion out of the funds. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $269.73 million of Wednesday’s total on its own, with Grayscale’s GBTC adding $39.13 million, while Morgan Stanley’s MSBT was the single fund to take money in at $8.96 million.
The 4 November inflow of $74.57 million is the only green bar in the window, so the Bitcoin price has absorbed nine days of selling against one day of buying. Source: SoSoValue · Chart: FinanceFeedsPreliminary figures circulating on 11 November had put the previous session at a small net inflow, before BlackRock’s fund reported. The finalized series turned it negative.
Investor Takeaway
BlackRock’s IBIT supplied $269.73 million of the $299.90 million that left on 11 November, so the pressure on the Bitcoin price is concentrated in one fund rather than spread across the complex.
Redemptions Are Only a Sixth of the $8.56 Billion Drop
Total net assets across the funds fell from $102.26 billion on 4 November to $93.70 billion on 11 November. Redemptions account for $1.44 billion of that $8.56 billion decline, leaving roughly $7.12 billion to price.
Five to one is the ratio of market losses to redemptions, which means the Bitcoin price has been driving the ETF numbers rather than the other way around. Source: SoSoValue · Chart: FinanceFeedsCumulative net inflow since launch now reads $55.10 billion, down from $56.54 billion on 4 November, so the Bitcoin price has taken back more value than the funds have returned to holders. The funds hold 6.24% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization, which stands at $1.48 trillion against 20.11 million coins in circulation.
Bitcoin Price Did Not Join Wednesday’s Chip Rally
Semiconductors ran hard on Wednesday, with AMD closing up 7.32%, Micron 11.89%, Arm 12.05% and Intel 7.52%. The Bitcoin price finished the same session roughly flat before slipping overnight, which is a split that follows the funding cost of each trade rather than the enthusiasm behind it.
Binance Research put the crypto market capitalization down 9.1% to $2.70 trillion in a month, tying the drawdown to AI capital expenditure outrunning cash flow, which is a liquidity story rather than an equity one. Spot volume supports that reading, with average daily turnover at about 126,000 BTC, the lowest since 2016.
PPI Lands at 8:30 Friday After a 0.3% Core CPI
October headline CPI rose 0.4% on the month against a 0.3% consensus, with core at 0.3% for the third consecutive month, on TradingKey’s read of the release. Fed Governor Christopher Waller had said before the print that a reading at or above 0.3% might warrant a 50 basis point move.
CME FedWatch showed the odds of a 50 basis point December hike rising from 1.1% to 15.3% after the data on 10 November, with 84.7% on a 25 basis point move, while Polymarket priced an 85% chance of a hike on 11 November. A hot PPI on Friday would push the Bitcoin price into a December meeting that is tightening rather than easing.
Support at $72,000, Resistance at $75,600
The Bitcoin price is trading below the $75,600 short-term holder cost basis, which puts the average recent buyer underwater. Support sits at $73,000 to $73,300 and then near $72,000, with resistance at $75,000 to $75,700.
The 10.14% fall across this window came with the lowest spot volume since 2016, so the Bitcoin price has been set by thin books rather than heavy selling. Source: TradingViewMSCI is dropping companies it classifies as non-operating from its indexes after the close on 30 November. That removes Strategy from the MSCI USA Index and Metaplanet from its Japan Small Cap Index. JPMorgan has estimated the Strategy deletion alone could force $2.8 billion of selling, rising toward $8.8 billion if other index providers follow, which sets a second dated risk for the Bitcoin price two weeks after Friday’s print.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index fell to zero on 11 November with eight of its ten indicators bearish, against a reading of 90 on 13 October. Options pricing has moved with it, and the probability of clearing $90,000 by Christmas fell to 6% from 18% in a week. Bitcoin last traded above $75,700 on 6 November, when $1.1 billion of positions were liquidated, and it set a seven-week low at $75,653 on 4 November.
Investor Takeaway
Friday’s producer price report is the near-term driver, because a second hot inflation print would harden the December hike into a 50 basis point debate and the bitcoin price has spent five sessions failing to hold $75,600 with rates still expected to rise.