AppLovin is being traded as if the November earnings jump settled the argument about its advertising model. It did not. The Nasdaq historical close on Tuesday 10 November 2026 was $395.51. Thirty-five sessions from the next open through the 31 December 2026 close put the bull at $552.64, the base at $349.45, and the bear at $257.44. The figure the consensus coverage keeps reaching for is a separate 12-month average target of $454.28. What that average leaves out is how the September quarter was earned: net revenue per installation rose 55 percent while installation volume rose 2 percent, and management says the new models are only partly rolled out. A complaint filed on 16 September 2026 alleges the company misled investors about the pace of that improvement. The bands below keep the 5 November gap inside the sample. They are not a broker target.
Key facts
- Tuesday 10 November 2026 official close $395.51, down $14.49, or 3.53 percent, from Monday’s $410.00. Open $405.59, high $408.65, low $383.3082, volume 5,452,097. Source: Nasdaq historical file for APP, saved 11 November 2026. A premarket last of $389.26 that morning is not the spot. Nasdaq historical file.
- The info endpoint names the listing NASDAQ-GS and the security “Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock.” The 52-week range is $225.19 to $738.01, with the high printed on 22 December 2025 and the low of $225.1901 printed on 30 October 2026. Source: Nasdaq info and historical endpoints, 11 November 2026.
- The 20-day average of closes is $285.38 and the 50-day average is $296.87. Tuesday sits 38.59 percent above the 20-day average and 33.23 percent above the 50-day average. The prior five sessions, 3 November through 9 November, ranged from a low of $231.10 to a high of $412.90. Source: the same Nasdaq file, 11 November 2026.
- Third-quarter revenue was $2,184.815 million, up 55 percent from $1,405.045 million. Net income was $1,438.902 million. Diluted earnings were $4.30 against $2.45. Adjusted EBITDA was $1,842.230 million, an 84 percent margin. Source: AppLovin earnings release, 4 November 2026. Company release.
- The release says AppLovin repurchased and withheld 4.1 million Class A shares for $1.4 billion, and the board raised the authorization by $3.2 billion, to $3.6 billion as of the end of October. The balance sheet shows 331.322 million Class A and Class B shares at 30 September 2026. At Tuesday’s close that count is worth $131.04 billion. Source: the same 4 November release.
- Fourth-quarter guidance in that release is revenue of $2,365 million to $2,395 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1,995 million to $2,025 million, a margin of 84 percent to 85 percent. Against third-quarter revenue, the low end is 8.25 percent higher and the high end is 9.62 percent higher.
- StockAnalysis, citing 32 analysts polled by S&P Global, shows a Buy consensus and an average target of $454.28, with a low of $345, a median of $450, and a high of $610. Jason Bazinet at Citi maintained a $500 Buy on 10 November 2026. Source: StockAnalysis forecast, page saved 11 November 2026.
- PPC Land on 6 November 2026, quoting the Form 10-Q, says net revenue per installation increased 55 percent and the volume of installations increased 2 percent. The same article reports a securities complaint filed on 16 September 2026 about the pace of model improvement. Source: PPC Land.
What just happened, and why the obvious reading is wrong
The obvious reading is that AppLovin reported a clean beat and the only open question is the walk up to the street average. The tape does not say that. On 4 November, before the after-close release, APP closed at $271.75. On 5 November it closed at $356.10, up $84.35, or 31.06 percent, on 22,224,300 shares. Friday closed at $391.22. Monday closed at $410.00, with a high of $412.90. Tuesday gave $14.49 back.
That jump sits on a longer decline. The 31 December 2025 close is $673.82, so Tuesday is still down $278.31, or 41.30 percent. The 1 June 2026 close is $613.70. The bull at $552.64 does not reach either print. A year-end bull that cannot regain prices the stock already traded is the upper band of a sample that includes the break to $228.50, not a new plateau.
The quarter was strong on the statement. Revenue was $2,184.815 million and net income was $1,438.902 million, up 55 percent and 72 percent on the highlights table. The release does not date a full model rollout. The 31 percent day priced a beat. It did not price a finished transition.
Who is exposed
Advertisers pay the bills. The release calls AppLovin a marketing platform in Palo Alto. PPC Land, reading the quarterly report, says the third-quarter increase was due primarily to AppLovin Ads, “where net revenue per installation increased 55 percent and the volume of installations increased 2 percent.” Over nine months the same account says revenue per installation rose 68 percent while installation volume fell 7 percent. Game studios are the core payers. E-commerce is the newer budget, and Adam Foroughi has called that side early.
Tripledot is both a customer and a stake. PPC Land says the 10-Q records about 22 percent of Tripledot, valued at $285.0 million, plus $1.8 million of third-quarter revenue and $44.7 million over nine months. On the share register, 30 September shows 301.258 million Class A shares and 30.064 million Class B shares. PPC Land says each Class B share carries 20 votes. The Class A line is what trades on NASDAQ-GS. Cash was $3,173.731 million against long-term debt of $3,516.136 million.
The rest of digital advertising is the competing venue. Meta priced a $25 billion common sale at $625 plus a 6.50 percent preferred. A September order left Google’s AdX exchange in place and argued over a 20 percent take rate. CMC Markets is hiring to build agents that buy ads on Meta, Google, and programmatic pipes. Those are not named AppLovin customers.
What the tape and the filings actually show
The comparison is a four-session jump against a guide that asks for a high-single-digit sequential step. PPC Land says the August range for this quarter was $2,055 million to $2,085 million, so $2,184.815 million cleared the top by about $100 million. That is the company’s yardstick, not a re-rating back toward $600.
| Item | Figure | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday close | $395.51 | Nasdaq official close, 10 November 2026 |
| Monday close | $410.00 | Prior session, down $14.49 on Tuesday |
| 5 November close | $356.10 | Up 31.06 percent from $271.75, the largest log-return in the 90 |
| 30 October close | $228.50 | Low close in the file for 2026, low print $225.1901 |
| 1 June close | $613.70 | Start of the chart window, still 35.55 percent above Tuesday |
| Q3 revenue | $2,184.815 million | Statement line, release dated 4 November 2026 |
| Q4 revenue guide | $2,365 million to $2,395 million | 8.25 percent to 9.62 percent above Q3 revenue |
| Street average | $454.28 | 12-month target, 32 analysts, not this note’s bull |
| This note | $552.64 / $349.45 / $257.44 | Bull, base, and bear on 35 sessions |
Nine-month revenue was $5,950.950 million. The midpoint of the fourth-quarter range is $2,380 million, and the sum is $8,330.950 million. StockAnalysis lists a 2026 revenue forecast of $8.34 billion. That figure is a street construct, not an input to the bull or the bear. Tuesday at $395.51 is 38.59 percent above the 20-day average of $285.38 and 33.23 percent above the 50-day average of $296.87, because October pulled both averages down. The prior five-session high is $412.90, or $17.39 above the close. The prior five-session low is $231.10.
What Foroughi and Stumpf said, and what they would not date
Adam Foroughi, co-founder and chief executive, told the 4 November call, as transcribed by PPC Land: “During the quarter, we partially rolled out the next generation of our models, built on the architectural changes I described last quarter. Performance was strong. Advertisers saw more spend deploying profitably at their target return on ad spend goals, and budgets stepped up.” He also said, “Our gaming business grew nearly 50 percent year-over-year, re-accelerating right alongside the rollout,” and “we won’t promise a cadence.” He called the change “a model transition as significant as Axon 2.0.” Asked whether it was an Axon 3.0, he put the technical complexity on that level and declined a completion date.
On the same transcript he said, “We believe this business can compound at roughly 30 percent annually over the long term,” and that e-commerce should bring bigger fourth quarters and tougher first quarters. The 30 percent line is not a 35-session price. The seasonal line can be checked inside this year, because the guide is the fourth quarter and this note ends on 31 December.
Matt Stumpf, chief financial officer, put the guide at “approximately 43 percent to 44 percent year-over-year growth, or 8 percent to 10 percent sequentially,” as reported by PPC Land. The sequential half matches the release arithmetic of 8.25 percent to 9.62 percent. The year-over-year half is his comparison. This release does not print fourth-quarter 2025 revenue. On the buyback he said, “That was us opportunistically ramping up the buyback because we saw this dislocation in the stock price versus the actual intrinsic value of the company.” The monthly table, on that reading, is July at 674,000 shares and $442.75, August at 2.07 million shares and $316.66, and September at 1.31 million shares and $311.44.
On the evening of 4 November, Dimitry Nakhla posted the quarter as revenue of $2.185 billion, earnings of $4.30, and $1.4 billion of stock repurchased, and he linked the company PDF. Those three figures match the release. The post circulates the document. It is not a second source for the numbers. The status is here.
The complaint, the old short report, and the buyback
The earnings release does not mention a new lawsuit. PPC Land says the Form 10-Q filed the same day does. On its account, Stephen Talbot filed on 16 September 2026 in the Northern District of California against the company, Foroughi, and Stumpf. The complaint, in the language PPC Land quotes, “alleges that the defendants made materially false and misleading statements concerning the pace of improvement of the Company’s advertising models and the development timeline for a certain ad-generation tool.” The class period runs from 12 February 2026 to 5 August 2026.
The bull at $552.64 needs the partial rollout to keep lifting revenue per installation inside the guide. The complaint attacks statements about that pace. The 4 November release does not answer it in a quoted line. Separately, AppLovin has already rejected a Capitalwatch short report, calling claims about money laundering and unauthorized downloads untrue. That denial is not a ruling on Talbot. The buyback is a different comment on price: about $312 to $317 in August and September, against Tuesday’s $395.51 and a July average of $442.75. The $3.6 billion left at the end of October is unused capacity, not a floor.
Bull, base, and bear through 31 December
The title prices are a distribution, not an analyst mark. The sample is the last 90 daily log-returns in the Nasdaq file, from the close on 6 July 2026 through the close on 10 November 2026. Log-return is the natural log of one close divided by the prior close. The mean, mu, is -0.003537634129. The sample standard deviation, sigma, is 0.051650465078. The largest absolute return in the 90 is the 5 November session, a log-return of 0.270329 from $271.75 to $356.10. Dropping that session only as an illustration would cut sigma to 0.042851. The session stays in. It is why the bands are wide.
N is 35. From Wednesday 11 November through Thursday 31 December, the weekday count skips Thanksgiving on Thursday 26 November and Christmas on Friday 25 December. The early closes on Friday 27 November and Thursday 24 December still count. November contributes 13 sessions and December contributes 22. The base is the close times the exponential of N times mu. The bull adds 1.5 times sigma times the square root of N. The bear subtracts 1.0 times sigma times the square root of N. The square root of 35 is 5.91608. Rounded half up to cents, that is a base of $349.45, a bull of $552.64, and a bear of $257.44. The bull with the drift included is already above the spot, so no drift was stripped out. A ten-session check, which is not the title, would print a bull of $487.75 and a bear of $324.23. No English AppLovin title was found with a bull inside a dollar of $552.64, so the year-end pair stands.
| Case | Price | Versus $395.51 | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $552.64 | 39.73 percent above | Revenue per installation keeps rising inside the $2,365 million to $2,395 million guide. The close still ends below the 1 June print of $613.70. |
| Base | $349.45 | 11.65 percent below | Only the negative average daily log-return, with no volatility band. The path into the 30 October close of $228.50 dominates the 90 sessions. |
| Bear | $257.44 | 34.91 percent below | That same drift minus one standard deviation. The price still finishes above the $228.50 close and the $225.19 low print. |
The street average of $454.28 sits between the base and the bull, 14.86 percent above Tuesday. The street low of $345 is $4.45 under the base. The street high of $610 is $57.36 above the bull. None of those three street figures is $552.64 or $257.44.
What happens next
Through Tuesday 24 November 2026, the tenth session, the tape either retakes the prior five-session high of $412.90 or it loses Tuesday’s low of $383.3082. The cause is Foroughi’s seasonal claim: bigger fourth quarters as e-commerce spend arrives. If that bid does not show up, the averages underneath are $285.38 and $296.87, not the street average of $454.28. A ten-session distribution, not the title, would be a bull of $487.75, a base of $381.76, and a bear of $324.23.
By Thursday 31 December 2026 the title path is the one that stands. The bull at $552.64 needs the 8 percent to 10 percent sequential guide to look conservative because more of the model rollout lands. The base at $349.45 is only the drift already in the last 90 sessions. The bear at $257.44 is that drift minus one standard deviation, still above the October low. Missing the guide’s low end of $2,365 million would hit the bull first.
The Talbot class period already ended on 5 August 2026. What can change before year-end is whether anyone dates the ad-generation tool the complaint names. Foroughi has refused a rollout calendar, so the 31 December price stays a volatility outcome. Spending the $3.6 billion authorization above $395.51 would also differ from the August and September purchases near $312 to $317. The release does not promise that spend.
Frequently asked questions
What is the AppLovin stock prediction through 31 December 2026?
The bull is $552.64 and the bear is $257.44, with a base of $349.45, off the $395.51 Nasdaq close on 10 November 2026. The path uses 35 sessions, a mean log-return of -0.003537634129, and a sample standard deviation of 0.051650465078. It is not the $454.28 average target. The base sits below the close because that mean return is negative.
Why is the base case under Tuesday’s close?
The base compounds the close at the average daily log-return and adds no volatility band. Over the 90 sessions from 6 July through 10 November, that average is negative. The file shows $613.70 on 1 June and $228.50 on 30 October. Thirty-five sessions of that drift land at $349.45, 11.65 percent under $395.51. The 5 November session stays in the sample.
Is $552.64 a broker price target?
No. The bull and the bear are the house distribution on Tuesday’s close, not a price a bank has published as its target. StockAnalysis shows an average of $454.28, a low of $345, a median of $450, and a high of $610 from 32 analysts. Citi’s $500 on that page is a 12-month opinion. This note stops at the 31 December 2026 close.
What did the September quarter actually report?
The 4 November statement prints revenue of $2,184.815 million, net income of $1,438.902 million, and diluted earnings of $4.30, against $2.45 a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was $1,842.230 million, an 84 percent margin. Free cash flow was $1,418.443 million. PPC Land’s account of the 10-Q says installation volume rose only 2 percent. The December-quarter guide is $2,365 million to $2,395 million.
How does the buyback compare with Tuesday’s price?
The release says 4.1 million shares were repurchased and withheld in the quarter for $1.4 billion, and the authorization stood at $3.6 billion at the end of October. PPC Land, citing the monthly table, puts August at $316.66 and September at $311.44, against July at $442.75. Tuesday’s $395.51 sits above August and September and below July. The authorization is capacity, not an order at the current print.
Does the September lawsuit change these prices?
The bull, the base, and the bear are calculated from closes, not from a court outcome. PPC Land says Stephen Talbot filed on 16 September 2026 over the pace of model improvement, for a class period ending 5 August 2026. The 4 November release does not answer that complaint in a quoted sentence. A later ruling would show up in the tape. It is not inside these three numbers.
This is not financial advice.