Samsung Electronics did not print a new bull market by finishing Wednesday higher. The common share, KRX:005930, closed at $155.89 on 11 November 2026. This Samsung stock prediction runs to the last Korea Exchange session of the year, Wednesday 30 December 2026: a bull case of $213.99, a base case of $130.35, and a bear case of $93.67. Those prices are this desk’s volatility maths on the last 90 daily log moves, not a broker target and not a recycled won forecast. The fact consensus coverage skips is the sign of the drift. The average daily log move is negative, so the base case sits under the close. The bull case clears $155.89 only because one and a half standard deviations outweigh that drift, and $213.99 is still well under the 19 June high of $280.67. Wednesday’s bounce left the close under both moving averages and under the prior five-session high, on lighter volume than the 6 November selloff.
Key facts
- Samsung Electronics common shares (KRX:005930) closed at 208,000 won on Wednesday 11 November 2026, or $155.89 at the one rate used here, 1,334.30 won per dollar, the Hana Bank USD/KRW print on Naver Finance at 20:43 Korea time that day. Source: Naver Finance, 11 November 2026.
- Tuesday 10 November was $147.87. Wednesday rose $8.02, or 5.42%, in a $147.12 to $156.26 range, on 15,900,858 shares versus 35,516,270 shares when 6 November closed at $145.02. Source: Naver Finance daily bars, 11 November 2026.
- The 20-day average is $161.28 and the 50-day average is $182.45. The close is $5.39 (3.34%) under the first and $26.56 (14.56%) under the second. The 4 to 10 November range was $134.30 to $170.88. Source: Naver Finance daily bars, 11 November 2026.
- Since 11 November 2025 the file high is $280.67 on 19 June 2026 and the low is $70.82 on 21 November 2025, so the close is about 44.46% under the high. A delayed screen’s $154.39 print for this session is not used. Source: Naver Finance daily bars; StockAnalysis, 11 November 2026.
- The 29 October 2026 company release reported third-quarter revenue of $146.37 billion and operating profit of $80.49 billion, and said Samsung was the first tech company above the equivalent of $74.94 billion in quarterly operating profit. Device Solutions earned $79.82 billion of it. Source: Samsung newsroom, 29 October 2026.
- That release set a third-quarter cash dividend of $3.45 on each common share, about $22.48 billion in total, and left the rest of the 2026 return, including a substantial buyback, to a late January 2027 board. Full-year capital spending is expected at about $63.25 billion. Source: Samsung newsroom, 29 October 2026.
- Naver’s foreign-retention field on the 11 November bar was 45.93%, down from 46.06% on 4 November. Source: Naver Finance daily series, 11 November 2026.
- Kim Jae-joon, executive vice president of the memory business, said the second-half HBM share goal looked already met in the third quarter, as reported by Seoul Economic Daily on 29 October 2026. That English page says it is translated from Korean.
What just happened, and why the bounce is the wrong reading
The obvious reading is that the autumn air pocket is over. The share opened at $147.72, hit $147.12, and closed at $155.89, only $0.37 under the $156.26 high. That is not a trend change. The close is $5.39 under the $161.28 20-day average, $26.56 under the $182.45 50-day average, and $14.99 under the $170.88 high on 4 November. A bounce that clears none of those levels is still a decline.
Wednesday’s 15,900,858 shares were under half the 35,516,270 shares traded on 6 November, when the close was $145.02 and the low was $134.30. Foreign retention was 45.93% from Monday through Wednesday, after 46.06% on 4 November. The $8.02 rise did not pull that field back up.
A second false reading is a screen that still says about $154.39. That is 206,000 won at the Key Facts rate, and it implies a 3.57% day off a prior mark that is not Tuesday’s $147.87 close. The file’s gain is $8.02, or 5.42%. The 206,000 won print is dropped. The screen’s 52-week range does match the file, which is why $70.82 to $280.67 stays.
Who is exposed
This price is one common share on the Korea Exchange, not a preferred line and not an OTC print. Holders face a central case that is still a decline into 30 December. Foreign retention near 45.93% has slipped from 46.19% on 28 October and then stalled. One firm session does not show that supply is finished.
The profit pool is narrower than the brand. Device Solutions produced $79.82 billion of the $80.49 billion quarterly operating profit, about 99.2% once 106.5 is divided by 107.4. Device eXperience lost $0.60 billion. Mobile and networks together posted $28.25 billion of revenue and a $0.45 billion operating loss. Visual display and appliances posted $10.42 billion of revenue and a $0.15 billion loss. Display made $0.82 billion on $6.00 billion of revenue. A Galaxy shopper is not the earnings engine. Memory customers are.
Peers share the demand story and not the shareholder calendar. SK hynix has already announced a large cancellation program after a sharp drop. Samsung has said a substantial buyback is coming and has not set the size. Index holders already saw the two names fall together when the KOSPI broke after Chuseok. On Wednesday, @businessline posted that Google’s push to sell custom AI chips to outside customers could open high-bandwidth memory demand for Samsung and SK hynix beyond Nvidia, citing a Korea Herald report. That is a demand hope, not an order Samsung confirmed. If buyers later treat memory as a value trap, the compression already discussed around Micron and SanDisk is the channel that would pull this close toward the bear case.
What the tape and the primary documents show
The comparison that matters is Wednesday against the sessions that broke the range, and against the June extreme.
| Session | Close | Versus $155.89 | What the bar did |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 November 2026 | $165.93 | $10.04 above | High of the prior five sessions, $170.88 |
| 5 November 2026 | $151.02 | $4.87 below | Intraday high $160.01, top of the latest five sessions |
| 6 November 2026 | $145.02 | $10.87 below | Low $134.30 on 35,516,270 shares |
| 9 November 2026 | $140.15 | $15.74 below | Lowest close of the slide |
| 10 November 2026 | $147.87 | $8.02 below | Prior daily close in the saved file |
| 11 November 2026 | $155.89 | spot | Near the $156.26 high, still under both averages |
| 19 June 2026 | $265.31 | $109.42 above | Session of the $280.67 intraday high |
The chart converts each Naver close at the Key Facts rate. The top panel is the close, the daily low, and both averages, with a marker on $155.89. The bottom panel adds the house bull, base, and bear. The $213.99 line is a level the stock still traded in early October. It is not the June high.
The earnings document is the 29 October release: revenue 195.3 trillion won ($146.37 billion, up 14% on the quarter) and operating profit 107.4 trillion won ($80.49 billion). Device Solutions was 147.1 trillion won of revenue ($110.24 billion) and 106.5 trillion won of profit ($79.82 billion). The release says 2027 AI spending should hit a historic level. That sentence is about the year after this horizon, not the 30 December close.
What the company and its executives have said
On the third-quarter call, Kim Jae-joon, executive vice president of the memory business in Device Solutions, said “the goal of securing an HBM market share on par with our DRAM market share in the second half appears to have already been achieved in the third quarter,” as reported by Seoul Economic Daily. The same account has him adding that HBM4 revenue tripled from the prior quarter and reached about 60% of HBM revenue, and that “We have completed LTAs with 10 large customers and are in negotiations with another 10 major customers.” Kang Seok-chae, executive vice president of the foundry business, said “For advanced processes at 8 nanometers and below, demand far exceeds capacity, and utilization is expected to top 100% in the second half,” and that the company plans to more than double 2-nanometer order wins from last year. The page says the English is AI-translated from Korean and may not match the original wording, so these lines are used as that page reports them.
From industry accounts, not a guidance line, the same paper puts Samsung’s HBM share in the high 30% range and SK hynix near 50%. That is not a newsroom figure and not a share price. The release does not name Kim or Kang, does not publish a foundry operating profit, and does not confirm a Google award. It does say foundry revenue and earnings improved, and that Taylor, Texas, is a 2027 supply point. The buyback count is the item management has not fixed. “Substantial” is the adjective. The number waits for late January 2027.
Spending now, and a return that is still open
Fabs are being paid for now. The extra holder return is a January 2027 decision, after the last session in the forecast. Third-quarter capital expenditure was 29 trillion won ($21.73 billion). January through September was 56.9 trillion won ($42.64 billion). The full-year figure is about 84.4 trillion won ($63.25 billion), including 76.8 trillion won ($57.56 billion) for Device Solutions and 3.9 trillion won ($2.92 billion) for display.
The third-quarter dividend is already set: 4,601 won per common share, $3.45, about $22.48 billion in total. Estimated 2026 returns are 90 trillion to 110 trillion won ($67.45 billion to $82.44 billion). With 35 trillion won ($26.23 billion) already planned or completed, 55 trillion to 75 trillion won remains ($41.22 billion to $56.21 billion). Those are the won totals divided by the Key Facts rate. The remainder has no per-share price yet. Buying Wednesday’s close for the cancellation is early by a board meeting.
The exchange rule that binds the count is on the global KRX page: no KOSPI trading on government holidays, Labor Day, Saturdays, or 31 December. Friday 25 December 2026 is out. Thursday 31 December is out because the page names that date. Thursday 19 November was not confirmed as a full closure, so it stays in. US Thanksgiving is not a Korea session. If memory pricing cools while phones, networks, and appliances are still loss-making, the consolidated profit falls faster than a chip-only story, but that is a 2027 argument, not a reason to ignore the holiday list.
How the bull, base, and bear were built
The spot in the formula is 208,000 won, not the dollar figure and not the 206,000 won screen. The sample is the last 90 daily log returns, ending 11 November 2026 and starting from the 30 June close. Mu is -0.005262. Sigma, the n-1 sample standard deviation, is 0.056675. N is 34 Korea Exchange sessions from 12 November through 30 December 2026, and the square root of 34 is 5.831. That is 13 November sessions and 21 December sessions, skipping 25 December and 31 December. A US calendar also totals 34, but it would drop 26 November and keep 31 December. This piece uses the Korea list.
The base is 208,000 won times e to the power of N times mu. The bull is 208,000 won times e to the power of N times mu, plus 1.5 times sigma times the square root of N. The bear is 208,000 won times e to the power of N times mu, minus 1.0 times sigma times the square root of N. Before rounding, that is 173,924.52 won, 285,523.49 won, and 124,979.89 won. Half-up to the won, the cases are 173,925, 285,523, and 124,980. Dividing by the Key Facts rate and rounding half-up to the cent gives $130.35, $213.99, and $93.67. The same division makes the spot $155.89. The bull is above the spot and the bear is below it. Because the drifted bull already clears the spot, the no-drift override was not used.
One session dominates sigma and was kept. On 31 July 2026 the close went from 207,000 won ($155.14) to 262,500 won ($196.73), a log return of 0.2375, about 26.81%. Dropping it only as an illustration cuts sigma from 0.056675 to 0.050706, about 10.5% lower. It stays in. The ten-session version of the same formula, ending Wednesday 25 November, is a bull of $193.51, a base of $147.90, and a bear of $123.63. Fifteen and twenty sessions are stored beside it. They are not the title. No English FinanceFeeds title showed a dollar bull and dollar bear both within $1 of $213.99 and $93.67, so the horizon stays 30 December.
What happens next
The first checkpoint is Wednesday 25 November 2026, the tenth session after the spot. If the drift continues, the ten-session base of $147.90 gives back Wednesday’s $8.02 and a little more, because one up day did not clear $161.28. A close above the ten-session bull of $193.51 is the optimistic tail. A close under $123.63 would break the $134.30 low from 6 November inside November, not in December.
The title date is Wednesday 30 December 2026, session 34. The base of $130.35 is that same drift with no extra shock. The bull of $213.99 adds about 1.5 standard deviations and does not require a return to $280.67. The bear of $93.67 is the drifted mean minus one standard deviation, which needs the 29 October memory story to cool inside this window: AI spending slips off the pace the company called historic, the supply agreements slip, or consumer losses widen as chip profit cools. The January board cannot cause the 30 December print.
The third date is the late January 2027 board, outside the horizon on purpose. Directors then set the remaining return, in the $41.22 billion to $56.21 billion band. That decision cannot move the 30 December close. Before then, the tape test is a reclaim of $161.28 and then $170.88 on volume closer to 6 November than to Wednesday. Until those two prices break, the tape agrees with the negative drift.
Bull, base, and bear
The title cases are the house distribution. A named analyst target is a separate number, usually on a 12-month clock, and this piece does not adopt one. Older won bull and bear pairs are not the prices below.
| Case | USD price | Versus the $155.89 close | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $213.99 | 37.27% above | The next 34 sessions finish about 1.5 standard deviations above a still-negative drift, without needing the June high of $280.67. |
| Base | $130.35 | 16.38% below | The last 90 sessions’ average log move keeps compounding through 30 December, and Wednesday’s bounce does not flip the sign of mu. |
| Bear | $93.67 | 39.91% below | The path finishes one standard deviation under that drifted mean because the memory upturn cools inside this window, not after the January board. |
This is not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Samsung stock prediction?
The bull case is $213.99 and the bear case is $93.67, with a base case of $130.35, against the Wednesday 11 November 2026 close of $155.89. The horizon is the Korea Exchange session on 30 December 2026, 34 sessions after the spot. The three prices come from the last 90 daily log returns, not from a broker menu. A 12-month street target, if you see one, answers a different question and is not substituted here.
Why is the base case under the latest close?
Because the mean daily log return over the last 90 sessions is negative, at -0.005262. Compounded over 34 sessions, that drift alone pulls 208,000 won to about 173,925 won, which is $130.35 after the Key Facts conversion. The bull case beats the close only because the 1.5 sigma term outweighs that drag. Take the shock away and the centre of the distribution is still a decline into year-end.
Does the record quarter overturn the maths?
No. The 29 October release was already public before Wednesday, and the share is still under both moving averages. Operating profit of $80.49 billion explains why the stock is not back at the November 2025 low of $70.82. It does not force the next 34 sessions to compound at a positive rate. The formula uses the closes that already happened, including the drop from June and the market’s reaction to the record.
When is the buyback actually decided?
The 29 October release says the next return policy, the final 2026 amount, and the plan for the remaining funds will be set at a board meeting in late January 2027. That is after 30 December. The third-quarter dividend of $3.45 per common share is already set. The remainder, $41.22 billion to $56.21 billion, is not a per-share schedule yet. Buying the close for a cancellation that is still uncounted is a 2027 trade.
Did Wednesday break the downtrend?
It did not. The close at $155.89 is under the 20-day average of $161.28, under the 50-day average of $182.45, and under the $170.88 high from 4 November. Volume was 15,900,858 shares, well under the 35,516,270 shares on the 6 November down day. The share did finish near its session high of $156.26, so the day itself was firm. A firm day under both averages is not a new trend.
Which price should a reader ignore?
Ignore a delayed screen that still shows about $154.39 for 11 November, and ignore any unsponsored OTC print. The cash close in the Naver daily file is 208,000 won, converted once at the Key Facts rate to $155.89. Also ignore a 31 December target. The Korea Exchange page used here closes the market that day, so the last session in the count is 30 December. A US holiday calendar does not move this list.