The slide in IREN is being read as a cancelled Microsoft book. It is not. IREN Limited ordinary shares closed at $19.73 on Tuesday 10 November 2026, the last completed session on the Nasdaq Global Select Market. The house path through the 31 December 2026 close is a bull of $27.22, a base of $14.45, and a bear of $9.48. Those prices use the last 90 daily log returns and 35 sessions still left in 2026. They are not a sell-side target. The missing point is the definition of funded. In the 5 November 2026 exhibit, fully funded means remaining capital spending from 30 September 2026 on the 0.3GW (IT) program behind a contracted annualized run-rate above $4 billion. The same release says $6 billion of $15 billion in remaining planned fiscal 2027 capital spending is still subject to market conditions. Recognized revenue may be materially lower than that run-rate, and year-on-year total revenue fell from $240 million to $228 million.
Key facts
- Official close $19.73 on Tuesday 10 November 2026, down $1.68, or 7.85 percent, from Monday’s $21.41. Volume 75,818,390. Open $20.85, high $21.67, low $19.03. Source: Nasdaq historical file and info endpoint, close stamped 4:00 p.m. Eastern time, exchange NASDAQ-GS.
- The 20-day average of saved closes is $25.07 and the 50-day average is $35.24. The close sits 21.3 percent below the first and 44.0 percent below the second. Five sessions through 10 November traded from a high of $23.70 to a low of $17.155. Source: the same Nasdaq file.
- Nasdaq lists a 52-week range of $17.16 to $70.71. The file high on 3 June 2026 was $70.7066. The 5 November 2026 low was $17.155 and that session closed at $18.03 on 130,226,700 shares.
- Quarter ended 30 September 2026: revenue $228 million, AI cloud $200 million, bitcoin mining $28 million, net loss $263 million. A year earlier: $240 million, $7 million, $233 million, and a profit of $385 million. Source: Form 10-Q filed with the 5 November 2026 results.
- Backlog $20.3 billion, up 22 percent sequentially, about two-thirds with investment-grade counterparties or guarantors as of 30 September 2026. The more than $4 billion ARR target is now aimed at 31 January 2027 and may run to the end of February 2027. Source: Exhibit 99.1, 5 November 2026.
- Footnote 5 limits fully funded to remaining capex from 30 September 2026 for the 0.3GW (IT) program, still subject to funding conditions. Separately, $9 billion of cash and committed GPU financing and prepayments plus $6 billion subject to market conditions are the exhibit’s split of $15 billion in remaining planned fiscal 2027 capex.
- Cash and cash equivalents $3,522 million at 30 September 2026, down from $5,896 million at 30 June. Total assets $20,613 million. Capital commitments $18,947 million. Ordinary shares outstanding 424,357,381 as of 30 October 2026, plus 2 B Class shares. Source: the 10-Q.
- House bull $27.22, base $14.45, bear $9.48, N of 35, through 31 December 2026. Mean log return minus 0.008889 and sample standard deviation 0.071332 on 90 Nasdaq closes ending 10 November 2026. No collision with a live English FinanceFeeds pair.
What just happened, and why the obvious reading is wrong
On 5 November 2026 IREN reported the quarter ended 30 September 2026 and moved a more than $4 billion annualized run-rate from year-end 2026 to January 2027, with a possible extension into February, after a customer-requested change and supplier timing. The share closed that day at $18.03. It then closed at $21.64 on 6 November, $21.41 on 9 November, and $19.73 on 10 November. The obvious reading is that a flagship customer walked. The exhibit does not say that.
Daniel Roberts, Co-Founder and Co-CEO, said Horizon 1 went into service for Microsoft with NVIDIA Exemplar status. The redesign sentence says customer. It does not name Microsoft, and this article does not add that name. Funded, in footnote 5, means cash, restricted cash, undrawn committed GPU financing, and contracted prepayments not yet received, as of 30 September 2026, cover remaining capex for one 0.3GW (IT) program. It does not mean the rest of the fiscal 2027 build is raised. The $6 billion slice is still subject to market conditions.
The sequential increase is real and easy to over-read. Revenue rose from $137 million to $228 million, AI cloud from $71 million to $200 million, and adjusted EBITDA from $19 million to $66 million. Against the year-ago quarter, services were $135 million versus $7 million, lease revenue was $65 million versus none, and bitcoin mining was $28 million versus $233 million. Total revenue is $12 million, or 5.0 percent, below $240 million. Net income swung from a $385 million profit to a $263 million loss.
A premarket last sale of $21.14 at 6:45 a.m. Eastern time on 11 November 2026 is marked Pre-Market on the Nasdaq info file. The historical file has no 11 November bar. The closes used here are Tuesday’s completed prints.
Who is exposed
Microsoft is a named customer. Horizon 1 was delivered to Microsoft. Horizon 2 through Horizon 4 are in late-stage construction. The exhibit also lists contracts with NVIDIA, Microsoft, and 13 other customers. NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status for GB300 NVL72 systems is claimed at Horizon 1, so NVIDIA is both a technology mark and a counterparty. The other 13 customers are not named.
After the quarter, IREN expanded a contract with a Leading Frontier AI Lab, signed a short-term contract at $40 million per IT megawatt, and signed a five-year contract at about $22 million per IT megawatt with a prepayment covering 90 percent of associated GPU capex. H100 GPUs were contracted at double previous pricing. The lab is unnamed. FinanceFeeds has already reported a market story that attached a specific name neither company confirmed. That name is not a filing fact and is not an input here.
Holders are exposed to issuance. Ordinary shares were 406,865,943 at 30 September 2026, against 380,193,608 at 30 June, and 424,357,381 on the cover page as of 30 October 2026. Basic weighted-average shares were 398,557,846 and the basic loss was $0.66. Stock-based compensation was $106 million. Financing inflow was $2,779 million, including $498 million of share proceeds and $2,360 million from facilities. Times the Tuesday close, that October count is $8,372,571,127.13, a scale check rather than an exchange market cap, and smaller than the backlog and the $18,947 million commitment list.
Peer pages are context, not inputs. A Nebius note that also discusses IREN, CoreWeave bond pricing, and Galaxy’s Helios phase cover other landlords. The exhibit lists more than 30,000 acres, more than 5 GW of secured power, and a pipeline above 35 GW. Sweetwater’s 2 GW hub has conditional inclusion in ERCOT Batch Zero as base load. Liquid-cooled work is underway at Sweetwater 1 and has started at 100 MW in Mackenzie. Badajoz has a civil-works licence for 300 MW. Sweetwater 2, Kiowa, and Bundey are early-stage.
What the tape and the primary documents show
From the 31 December 2025 close of $37.77 the share fell $18.04, or 47.8 percent, to $19.73. The 25 September close was $44.125 and the 23 October close was $24.905. Tuesday’s range was $19.03 to $21.67. Both moving averages sit above the print. The prior five sessions ran from $24.665 to $17.155. Adding Tuesday sets the five-session high at $23.70. The close is $3.97 under that high, or 16.8 percent, and $2.575 above the low, or 15.0 percent.
One session dominates sigma and stays in the window. On 30 July 2026 the close went from $29.31 to $38.26, a log return of 0.266476. Sample standard deviation on the 90 returns is 0.071332. That session stays in sigma. The window runs from 6 July 2026 through 10 November 2026.
| Line | Quarter ended 30 Sep 2026 | Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026 | Quarter ended 30 Sep 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $228 million | $137 million | $240 million |
| AI cloud | $200 million | $71 million | $7 million |
| Bitcoin mining | $28 million | $67 million | $233 million |
| Net income (loss) | $(263) million | $(684) million | $385 million |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $66 million | $19 million | Not taken from the year-ago column |
| Selling, general and administrative | $(217) million | Not the comparison used | $(138) million |
| Depreciation and amortization | $(148) million | Not the comparison used | $(85) million |
| Operating loss | $(186) million | Not the comparison used | $(76) million |
The June revenue column is Exhibit 99.1. The year-ago column is the 10-Q. Footnote 1 splits the $200 million of AI cloud into $135 million of services and $65 million of lease revenue. At 30 September against 30 June, property, plant and equipment, net, was $12,344 million against $6,753 million, GPU hardware $5,819 million against $2,035 million, construction in progress $4,608 million against $3,657 million, and mining hardware $226 million against $597 million. Liabilities were $15,497 million. Equity was $5,116 million. Operating cash inflow was $529 million and investing outflow was $5,146 million.
What the company and the short seller said
Roberts’s words are in the exhibit: “This quarter Horizon 1 went into service for Microsoft with NVIDIA Exemplar status, AI Cloud revenue nearly tripled to $200 million, and operating ARR doubled to a billion.” He continued: “The more than $4 billion of contracted ARR is funded and now targeted for January, after a customer-requested design change and supplier timing moved it from year-end; it may extend to the end of February. Since quarter-end we have signed a five-year contract at about $22 million per megawatt with 90% of the GPU capex prepaid by the customer, and a short-term contract at $40 million per megawatt. We own the land, the power and the data centers under all of it, which gives us more ways to fund growth and lets us set its pace.” He is Co-Founder and Co-CEO of IREN. The page is the SEC exhibit.
@IREN_Ltd posted the same bullets at 21:49 GMT on 5 November 2026, including the fully contracted and fully funded line. The status is the company post. The exhibit also says contracted pricing rose 11 percent on three-year deals and 12 percent on five-year deals. A 2025 Microsoft dollar total is not in that post, and it is not restored here.
James Chanos posted on 6 November 2026 at 00:24 GMT: “$IREN Reality Check: By the time it hits its $4B ARR target in February, IREN will have roughly $20B in average capital employed in the middle of the March quarter($12B at 9/30). A 5x ratio of capital to revenues is not viable long-term.” The status is his post. He is the founder of Kynikos Associates, known for short selling. Wikipedia, citing a November 2023 Wall Street Journal report, says he would close the hedge fund and return outside capital, so he is not described here as a current manager. His $12 billion sits next to property, plant and equipment, net, of $12,344 million, not next to total assets of $20,613 million.
Financing tension, and a docket that is not a price input
Footnote 5 still conditions the funded slice on facility terms, escrow release, and availability periods. The $9 billion and the $6 billion are a different pot, the $15 billion of remaining planned fiscal 2027 capex. Capital commitments of $18,947 million exceed cash of $3,522 million plus current restricted cash of $2,208 million, together $5,730 million. Undrawn facilities are not unrestricted cash. GPU hardware gross moved from $2,035 million to $5,819 million in the quarter.
A putative securities class action was dismissed with prejudice and is on appeal. The 10-Q says the opening brief was filed on 21 September 2026, the company response on 4 November 2026, and the reply is due on 11 November 2026, subject to any extension. The company says the claims are without merit. This article does not say whether a reply was filed, and the docket date is not a term in the price formula.
What happens next
Tuesday 24 November 2026 is the tenth session, counting 11 November as day one and skipping only Thanksgiving on Thursday 26 November and Christmas on Friday 25 December. Friday 27 November and Thursday 24 December still count. No new contract is required for that date. The unused ten-session path is a bull of $25.32, a base of $18.05, and a bear of $14.41. The year-end pair of $27.22 and $9.48 did not land within $1 of a banned English pair.
Wednesday 11 November 2026 is the reply due date in the appeal, subject to extension. The response brief is already described as filed on 4 November. A reply, an extension, or silence does not change mu, sigma, or N. The formula’s inputs are 90 closes and a session count.
The third date sits after the model. Footnote 4 targets the more than $4 billion ARR as operational by 31 January 2027 and allows the end of February 2027, subject to commissioning, testing, and customer acceptance. The bull of $27.22 does not require that date inside December. The live test is whether the $6 billion still marked subject to market conditions is raised. If it is not, the bear of $9.48 is the negative drift minus one standard deviation. Fifteen sessions, ending Wednesday 2 December, would print $26.13, $17.27, and $13.10. Twenty sessions, ending Wednesday 9 December, would print $26.65, $16.52, and $12.01. Neither pair is the title.
Bull, base, and bear
Spot S is $19.73. N is 35. Mu is -0.008888908494878917. Sigma, sample standard deviation with the n-1 divisor, is 0.07133232884114617. The square root of 35 is 5.916079783099616. Base is S times e to the power of N times mu, or $14.454828669448387, which rounds half up to $14.45. Bull is S times e to the power of N times mu plus 1.5 times sigma times the square root of N, or $27.222399502432015, which rounds half up to $27.22. Bear is S times e to the power of N times mu minus one times sigma times the square root of N, or $9.47844974774001, which rounds half up to $9.48. The no-drift bull would have been $37.16 and was not used, because $27.22 is already above the close. Banned bulls at $100, $30.63, $65, and $21.71, and live English pairs at $92 with $16, $84 with $22, and $105 with $46, did not collide.
| Case | Price | Versus the $19.73 close | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $27.22 | $7.49 higher, 38.0 percent | Negative drift plus 1.5 standard deviations over 35 sessions. The January 2027 ARR date need not move into December. |
| Base | $14.45 | $5.28 lower, 26.8 percent | Log returns stay at the 90-day mean. AI cloud growth is not an input. The $6 billion slice can stay unresolved. |
| Bear | $9.48 | $10.25 lower, 52.0 percent | Negative drift minus one standard deviation over 35 sessions. A miss on the conditional $6 billion fits this band. Horizon 1 need not be cancelled. |
Frequently asked questions
What is the IREN stock prediction through 31 December 2026?
The bull is $27.22 and the bear is $9.48. The base, which the title leaves out, is $14.45. All three use the Tuesday 10 November 2026 close of $19.73, the mean and sample standard deviation of the last 90 daily log returns, and 35 sessions. The bull adds 1.5 standard deviations to the drift. The bear subtracts one. These figures are the house distribution, not a broker target.
Why is the base below the close if AI cloud revenue rose?
The base takes the sign of the average daily log return, and that average is negative over the last 90 sessions. Sequential AI cloud revenue of $200 million, up from $71 million, is not in the formula. Year-on-year total revenue is also lower, at $228 million against $240 million, because bitcoin mining fell from $233 million to $28 million. A model that marks the share up with the mix shift is a different model.
Does fully funded mean the whole fiscal 2027 build is paid for?
No. Footnote 5 limits fully funded to remaining capex from 30 September 2026 for the 0.3GW (IT) program behind the more than $4 billion run-rate, and that coverage still has funding conditions. The exhibit separately lists $6 billion of $15 billion in remaining planned fiscal 2027 capex as subject to market conditions. Capital commitments in the 10-Q were $18,947 million.
Did Microsoft cancel the Horizon 1 deployment?
The exhibit says Horizon 1 went into service for Microsoft with NVIDIA Exemplar status for GB300 NVL72 systems. The date slip is a customer-requested design change plus supplier timing. The release does not put Microsoft’s name on that design-change sentence. Horizon 2 through Horizon 4 are described as late-stage construction. A cancelled book is what the tape suggested. It is not what the company printed.
How should a reader use the Chanos capital figure?
On 6 November 2026 James Chanos said a $4 billion ARR target against roughly $20 billion of average capital employed is not viable long term, with $12 billion employed at 30 September. That $12 billion is close to property, plant and equipment, net, of $12,344 million. Total assets were $20,613 million. His $20 billion is his own March-quarter average. He founded Kynikos Associates. A 2023 report said the hedge fund would close.
What would have to happen for the bull case?
The bull of $27.22 is 38.0 percent above $19.73. It keeps the negative drift and adds 1.5 sample standard deviations over 35 sessions. It does not require the January 2027 run-rate date to land in December, and it does not require a new sell-side note. A tape that merely stops falling is closer to the unused ten-session base of $18.05 than to $27.22. Wednesday’s premarket print is not that shock.
This is not financial advice.