Updated 4 November 2026, 06:36 GMT. Gold is back above $4,000 an ounce on Wednesday. December COMEX gold futures traded at $4,027.30, up 2.2 percent from Tuesday’s $3,940.40 settlement, after an overnight range of $3,929.30-$4,032.40 (Yahoo Finance). Democrats won the House in Tuesday’s midterm elections and CBS News projects they will also control the Senate, the dollar index slipped to about 101.5 and Treasury yields fell. Verdict: the election gave gold the catalyst it lacked all week and it has reclaimed the $4,000 line that StoneX called the obvious resistance, but December hike odds near 78 percent have not moved, so Friday’s 6 November jobs report decides whether the break holds. Reference levels: $3,920 below, $4,115 above.
Key facts
- Price: December gold futures at $4,027.30 at 06:36 GMT on Wednesday 4 November, up 2.2 percent; overnight high $4,032.40, low $3,929.30 (Yahoo Finance, COMEX data). PANews reported spot gold through $4,000 at $4,000.21, up 1.78 percent on the day.
- How it got there: spot was only up 0.1 percent at $3,931.24 at 03:06 GMT (Reuters via CNBC) and up about 1 percent above $3,975 by 05:57 GMT (Goodreturns live blog), as US results came in.
- The election: Democrats won the House; CBS News projects Democratic control of both chambers, while CNN said Democrats were closing in on the Senate and some races are still uncalled (CNBC, CNN live coverage).
- The dollar: the US dollar index was at 101.50 at 06:36 GMT, down from 101.87 (Yahoo Finance), which Goodreturns described as a five-week low.
- Silver: December silver futures rose to $51.67, up about 4.2 percent from $49.59 (Yahoo Finance).
- The Fed: CME FedWatch still shows about a 78 percent chance of a December rate hike (CNBC, 4 November).
- Next: US October payrolls on Friday 6 November.
What changed since Tuesday
Our Tuesday gold page had gold near $3,921 with the rebound stalled below $3,950. It said gold needed a weak jobs report on Friday to get back above $4,000. It got there two days early, on the election result instead.
The move came in steps. Early in the Asian session, with results still coming in, gold was flat. Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said a weaker dollar and a sharp fall in both nominal and real Treasury yields were supporting gold (Reuters via CNBC). As the House call firmed up and the Senate tilted to Democrats, the dollar fell further and gold accelerated, gaining about $100 from the overnight low in a few hours.
Stocks went the other way. Nasdaq-100 futures traded as low as 27,738 overnight, a drop of about 2 percent at the worst, before recovering to 28,203 by 06:36 GMT (Yahoo Finance). Election-night coverage tied the tech selloff to the prospect of tighter oversight from a Democratic Congress. That mix, a weaker dollar, lower yields and nervous equities, is close to the best setup gold gets.
Why a Democratic Congress lifts gold
Before the vote, one analyst told Investing.com that a Democratic clean sweep could put pressure on the dollar, which would support gold. That is what happened overnight. Split government in Washington lowers the odds of new fiscal measures passing, markets read that as slower growth and a softer dollar, and gold is priced in dollars.
There is also an oil channel. Brent has been the main driver of gold’s direction this month, because cheaper energy lowers the inflation outlook and the case for a Fed hike. Brent settled at $103.60 on Tuesday, its lowest close since 7 October (Mitrade). Our Wednesday Brent page covers that side.
What the break does not fix
The Fed problem is still there. FedWatch shows about a 78 percent chance of a December hike (CNBC), barely different from the 75 percent priced on Tuesday. Higher rates raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no yield. The World Gold Council has also cut its 2026 gold investment growth forecast to 200 tonnes from 400, while raising its estimate for central bank buying (Goodreturns).
Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at StoneX, said on Wednesday morning that “$4,000 is the obvious resistance level” and that a break on either side could set gold’s next move (Reuters via CNBC). Gold is now on the upper side of it. The test is whether it closes there, and then whether it holds through Friday’s payrolls. For the October damage that took gold below $4,000 in the first place, see our gold and silver October review.
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,920 | The dollar recovers once the Senate is settled, Friday’s payrolls come in strong, hike odds rise above 80 percent and gold gives back the whole election move. | Tuesday’s close area and Wednesday’s overnight low of $3,929; about 2.7 percent below $4,027. |
| Base | $3,980-$4,080 | Gold holds the $4,000 handle but stalls into Friday’s jobs report. | Between Wednesday’s 05:57 GMT level and the $4,074-$4,083 resistance zone (Mitrade, 3 November). |
| Bull | $4,115 | Payrolls disappoint, hike bets fade, the dollar keeps falling and Brent moves back toward $100. | Top of Mitrade’s $4,104-$4,115 resistance zone; about 2.2 percent above $4,027. |
The bear case sits below Wednesday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified futures price, not forecasts.
What to watch
- The daily close above $4,000: an intraday break that fails by the close would put gold back in Tuesday’s range.
- The Senate call: the remaining races could still move the dollar either way.
- Brent and Wednesday’s EIA inventory report: a second weekly draw would support oil and cut into gold’s inflation relief.
- Friday’s payrolls: the main test for December hike odds. Silver has jumped more than gold today; see our silver week-ahead page.
Quick take: Gold is back above $4,000 on Wednesday, with December futures at $4,027.30, up 2.2 percent, after Democrats won the House and moved toward Senate control. The dollar index fell to about 101.5 and yields dropped. December hike odds are still near 78 percent, so Friday’s payrolls decide whether the break holds. Expect $3,980-$4,080 into the report; $3,920 needs a strong jobs number and a dollar rebound, $4,115 needs a weak one.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
December gold futures traded at $4,027.30 an ounce at 06:36 GMT on Wednesday 4 November, up 2.2 percent (Yahoo Finance). Spot gold crossed $4,000 at about the same time (PANews).
Why is gold up today?
Democrats won the House in the US midterm elections and are projected by CBS News to control the Senate. The dollar weakened and Treasury yields fell, which supports gold (Reuters via CNBC).
Is gold above $4,000 again?
Yes. Futures reached $4,032.40 overnight and spot crossed $4,000.21 (Yahoo Finance, PANews). StoneX’s Matt Simpson called $4,000 the obvious resistance before the break; the daily close is the first test.
Do the midterm results matter for gold?
Yes, through the dollar. A divided government makes new fiscal measures less likely, and markets read that as dollar-negative. Oil and the Fed still matter more over the next few weeks.
What are the key gold levels this week?
Support near $4,000 and then the $3,920-$3,930 area; resistance at $4,074-$4,083 and $4,104-$4,115 (Mitrade, 3 November).
What could reverse the move?
A strong payrolls report on Friday 6 November that lifts December hike odds above the current 78 percent, or a dollar rebound once the Senate result is settled.
Sources: Yahoo Finance COMEX and ICE futures data, 4 November 06:36 GMT (gold and silver futures, overnight range, dollar index, Nasdaq-100 futures); Reuters via CNBC, 4 November (spot gold at 03:06 GMT, Pepperstone and StoneX comments, FedWatch odds); Goodreturns live blog, 4 November (spot gold above $3,975, five-week dollar low, World Gold Council forecast); PANews, 4 November ($4,000.21 spot); CNBC and CNN midterm live coverage, 3-4 November; Investing.com, 3 November (clean-sweep dollar comment); Mitrade, 3-4 November (resistance zones, Brent close).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.