Updated 4 November 2026, 06:35 GMT. Brent crude futures are trading at $104.05 a barrel on Wednesday, up 0.4 percent from Tuesday’s settlement of $103.60 (Yahoo Finance, ICE data). That settlement was down $1.17 and the lowest close since 7 October (CNBC, Mitrade), as traders bet on a US-Iran settlement. Overnight, Democrats won the House in the midterms, and an industry survey showed a 5.3 million barrel US crude draw. Verdict: futures are trading the diplomacy while the physical market keeps tightening, and the election removes the date that markets had marked for a possible escalation, so the risk runs both ways from here. Reference levels: $100 below, $110 above.
Key facts
- Price: Brent at $104.05 at 06:35 GMT on Wednesday 4 November, up 0.4 percent; WTI at $96.34, up from Tuesday’s $96.09 settlement (Yahoo Finance).
- Tuesday: Brent settled at $103.60, down $1.17, its second straight loss, on hopes of a diplomatic deal with Iran (CNBC). It was the lowest close since 7 October and about 8 percent below the week’s start (Mitrade).
- The range: Brent peaked at $117.64 on 30 October and fell 7.6 percent on Monday alone (Mitrade).
- Inventories: the API reported a 5.267 million barrel crude draw for the week to 30 October, against an expected 2.1 million barrel build, the fifth weekly fall in a row (Mitrade). The EIA’s official figures are due on Wednesday.
- Diplomacy: Qatar is mediating; Iran called Washington’s latest response “unsatisfactory”, and further talks are scheduled in Abu Dhabi on 10-11 November (Mitrade).
- The election: Democrats won the House and CBS News projects they will also control the Senate (CNBC, CNN live coverage).
What changed since Tuesday
Our Tuesday Brent page had the price near $106 after Monday’s 7.6 percent plunge, with a report of a US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island adding some risk back. That did not last. Brent swung through a range of more than $6 on Tuesday, above $107 in the morning and briefly below $101, and settled below $104 (CNBC). The market chose the talks over the strike.
The Iranian position has not softened in public. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it would not accept diplomacy based on coercion (CNBC), and a senior official told Reuters the two sides were still far from a deal (via Mitrade). Futures fell anyway, which tells you how much of the war premium traders were ready to give up on any sign of progress.
Paper versus barrels
Mitrade sums up the split this way: price is trading the talks, inventories are trading the barrel. The API draw of 5.3 million barrels was the opposite of what analysts expected, and it was the fifth weekly decline. Cushing stocks rose 511,000 barrels and gasoline 1.4 million, so it is not a clean bullish read, but crude itself keeps leaving storage. An effective blockade in the Strait of Hormuz still affects roughly a fifth of global supply (Mitrade).
Mitrade cites sell-side models that put a no-war Brent price near $86. Against Tuesday’s $103.60, that leaves about $17.60 of war premium still in the price. If the Abu Dhabi talks produce something concrete, that is the amount at risk.
Why the midterms matter for oil
Before the vote, the election was a date in the oil market. Trump said he would not attack Iran before the midterms, and on 28 October CNBC reported that the US had told Gulf countries to prepare for possible strikes after them. That date has now passed. The overnight result does not change who runs foreign policy, but it changes the pressure on the administration: high energy costs tied to the Iran conflict were a campaign issue, and a Democratic Congress will keep them in focus.
For other markets, the cheaper oil of the past two sessions has been a relief. Gold rose back above $4,000 overnight as the dollar fell; our Wednesday gold page covers that move.
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $100 | Talks move toward a framework before Abu Dhabi, the EIA report shows a smaller draw and tanker traffic through Hormuz picks up. | The psychological floor that held in late October (Mitrade); about 3.9 percent below $104.05. |
| Base | $100-$107 | The EIA confirms a draw, talks stall without breaking down, and Brent trades the range into 10-11 November. | Mitrade’s expected range if the EIA is in line and talks stall. |
| Bull | $110 | Talks break down or a new strike or tanker incident follows the election, and the physical draw continues. | Mitrade resistance at $110; about 5.7 percent above $104.05. |
The bear case sits below Wednesday’s price. A close below the 22 September neckline at $97.36 would confirm the double top Mitrade has flagged, with a measured target of $84.53, close to the no-war level. These are reference levels measured from the verified futures price, not forecasts.
What to watch
- The EIA report on Wednesday: a draw above 2 million barrels would confirm the API signal (Mitrade).
- Iranian statements on the US response, and any reports of tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz.
- Abu Dhabi talks on 10-11 November.
- $100: the floor. A close below it opens $97.36.
Quick take: Brent is at $104.05 on Wednesday after settling at $103.60 on Tuesday, its lowest close since 7 October, on hopes of a US-Iran deal. The API showed a 5.3 million barrel draw and the midterms have passed, removing the date markets had marked for possible strikes. About $17.60 of war premium remains above Mitrade’s no-war level of $86. Expect $100-$107 into the Abu Dhabi talks; $100 needs real progress, $110 needs the talks to break down.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
Brent futures traded at $104.05 a barrel at 06:35 GMT on Wednesday 4 November, up 0.4 percent from Tuesday’s $103.60 settlement (Yahoo Finance).
Why is oil down this week?
Traders are betting on a diplomatic settlement between the US and Iran, mediated by Qatar. Brent has fallen from $117.64 on 30 October, including a 7.6 percent drop on Monday (Mitrade, CNBC).
Is the Strait of Hormuz still blocked?
Mitrade describes an effective blockade affecting roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, with shipping disruptions continuing.
How do the midterm results affect oil?
Indirectly. Markets had priced a risk of US strikes on Iran after the vote (CNBC, 28 October). With the election over, diplomacy and any military steps are the drivers. High energy costs will stay a political issue with a Democratic Congress.
What are the key Brent levels?
Support at $100 and $97.36; resistance at $107 and $110; the 30 October high at $117.64 (Mitrade).
What is the next oil catalyst?
The EIA weekly inventory report on Wednesday, then the US-Iran talks in Abu Dhabi on 10-11 November.
Sources: Yahoo Finance ICE and NYMEX futures data, 4 November 06:35 GMT (Brent, WTI); CNBC, 3 November (Tuesday settlements, intraday range, Iranian Foreign Ministry comment) and 28 October (Gulf strike preparation report); Mitrade, 4 November (lowest close since 7 October, API data, diplomacy, Hormuz, no-war level, technical levels); CNBC and CNN midterm live coverage, 3-4 November.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.