Updated 2 November 2026. Spot gold is trading near $3,906 an ounce on Monday, up $30.55 or 0.79 percent from Friday’s $3,875.84 close (Trading Economics, 2 November); Reuters had it up 0.6 percent at $3,900.05 early in the Asian session. The bounce follows Friday’s drop of about 3.5 percent to a one-year low. Verdict: cheaper oil is giving gold room to recover, but with markets still pricing about a 75 percent chance of a December Fed hike, the bounce has to clear $3,920 before it means much. Reference levels: $3,830 below, $4,025 above.
Key facts
- Price: $3,906.39 on Monday 2 November, up 0.79 percent on the day (Trading Economics). Reuters put spot gold at $3,900.05, up 0.6 percent, in early Asian trade (via FX Leaders).
- Friday: gold fell about 3.5 percent to a one-year low and silver lost about 6 percent to near $49, as the S&P 500 fell 1.8 percent and the Nasdaq 2.9 percent (FX Leaders). Kitco put last week’s low at $3,870.25.
- Why it fell: investors facing margin calls after the tech-stock selloff sold liquid assets, gold and silver included. Gold did not benefit even as the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.93 percent (Mitrade / Trading Central, 2 November).
- Why it is bouncing: Brent crude fell more than 3 percent to below $110 on Monday as Iran and Qatar continued talks on ending the war, which eased inflation worries and hike expectations (Trading Economics).
- The Fed: rates were held at 3.75-4.00 percent last week with two officials voting for a hike, and markets price about a 75 percent chance of a December hike (Trading Economics, FX Leaders).
- The week: ISM manufacturing today, the US midterms and JOLTS on Tuesday, ADP and ISM services on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday and October payrolls on Friday 6 November (FX Leaders).
What changed since Sunday
Our Sunday gold page was written with markets closed and gold at $3,875, after Kitco’s survey found 10 of 16 Wall Street analysts expecting lower prices this week. Monday’s first sessions have gone the other way so far: gold is about $31 higher, and the move has come from oil rather than from anything in gold itself.
The link runs through the Fed. Thursday’s data showed GDP growth of 3.4 percent and PCE inflation of 3.6 percent, and that hot inflation reading is what pushed gold below $4,000 last week (FX Leaders). Higher oil feeds the next inflation prints. When Brent drops 3 percent on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, the case for a December hike weakens slightly, and gold, which pays no interest, gets some relief. Our Monday Brent page has the Iran-Qatar plan behind the oil move.
A bounce, not yet a turn
The technical picture still leans bearish. FX Leaders’ analysis puts first resistance at $3,920.31, the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the fall, then $3,951.69 and the 50-period EMA near $4,023.54. It keeps a bearish bias while gold trades below $3,951.69, with support at $3,869.48, then $3,828.37 and $3,793. The relative strength index is near 32 after dipping below 30, so the market was oversold going into Monday.
Mitrade’s Trading Central analysis maps a similar floor: support at $3,885-$3,904, then $3,829-$3,849 and $3,780-$3,800, with resistance at $3,971-$3,982. Both sets of levels agree that a fall back under Friday’s low would open the $3,830 area quickly.
The analysts are still split. Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex has said gold could fall to the $3,750-$3,850 range, and Daniel Pavilonis of StoneX sees a possible move toward $3,000. On the other side, Giovanni Staunovo of UBS still expects gold at $5,000 or higher next year (all via FX Leaders). For the October damage in full, see our gold and silver October review.
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,830 | Oil rebounds if Iran talks stall after the midterms, strong ISM and payrolls data add to December hike bets, and gold loses Friday’s low. | FX Leaders support at $3,828.37, inside Trading Central’s $3,829-$3,849 zone; about 2 percent below Monday’s $3,906. |
| Base | $3,870-$3,950 | The bounce holds while hike odds stay near 75 percent and markets wait for Friday’s jobs report. | Between Friday’s low area and FX Leaders’ $3,951.69 resistance. |
| Bull | $4,025 | Oil keeps falling on a Hormuz deal, payrolls miss the roughly 68,000 consensus and hike bets fade. | The 50-period EMA near $4,023.54 (FX Leaders); about 3 percent above Monday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Monday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified spot, not forecasts.
What to watch
- $3,920: the first resistance. A close above it turns the bounce into a test of $3,950.
- Brent and the Iran talks: gold’s relief today comes from oil. A reversal in crude would remove it.
- ISM manufacturing at 15:00 GMT today, then the midterms and JOLTS on Tuesday.
- Friday’s payrolls at 13:30 GMT: consensus is about 68,000 jobs after 29,000 in September (FX Leaders). Silver traders will be watching the same print; see our silver week-ahead page.
Quick take: Gold is near $3,906 on Monday, up about 0.8 percent after Friday’s slide to a one-year low, helped by a 3 percent drop in oil on Iran-Qatar talks. Markets still price about a 75 percent chance of a December hike and the technical bias stays bearish below $3,950. Expect $3,870-$3,950 until the data arrives; $3,830 needs oil and hike bets to climb again, $4,025 needs a weak payrolls report.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold is trading near $3,906 an ounce on Monday 2 November, up about 0.8 percent from Friday’s $3,875.84 close (Trading Economics).
Why did gold fall to a one-year low on Friday?
A tech-stock selloff forced investors facing margin calls to sell liquid assets including gold, while hot inflation data and Fed hike bets weighed on it (Mitrade / Trading Central, FX Leaders).
Why is gold up today?
Brent crude fell more than 3 percent toward $110 as Iran and Qatar continued talks on ending the war. Cheaper oil eases inflation worries and slightly reduces the case for a December Fed hike (Trading Economics).
Will the Fed hike in December?
Markets price about a 75 percent chance of a December hike after two officials voted for a hike at last week’s meeting (Trading Economics, FX Leaders). Friday’s payrolls report is the next major test.
What are the key gold levels this week?
Resistance at $3,920, $3,951 and about $4,023; support near $3,869, $3,828 and $3,793, according to FX Leaders’ technical analysis.
Do analysts still expect gold to recover?
Views are split. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo still sees $5,000 or higher next year, while Bannockburn’s Marc Chandler sees a possible move to $3,750-$3,850 and StoneX’s Daniel Pavilonis a possible move toward $3,000 (via FX Leaders).
Sources: Trading Economics, 2 November (Monday price, oil link, December hike odds); Reuters via FX Leaders, 2 November (early-Monday price, technical levels, analyst views, data calendar, payrolls consensus); Mitrade / Trading Central, 2 November (Friday selloff cause, support and resistance zones, yields); Kitco (last week’s low and survey).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.