Updated 28 September 2026. Brent crude trades at $107.29 a barrel on Monday, up 2.84 percent from Friday’s $104.32, according to TradingEconomics market data on 28 September. WTI is back above $94. Verdict: the weekend took the cheapest outcome off the table. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, and the Wall Street Journal reported he has told aides he sees renewed strikes as likely after the 3 November midterms. That leaves the oil market pricing a grind with a dated risk attached: a quick deal pushes Brent back toward the mid-$90s, a resumed bombing campaign opens the $120 case.
Key facts
- Brent: $107.29 (+2.84 percent on the day, +18.56 percent over a month, +59.91 percent year on year) – TradingEconomics, 28 September 2026. Euronews reported WTI above $94, up nearly 2 percent, on Monday morning.
- Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day proposal. “I reject their proposal,” he said, telling Axios that Tehran had “overplayed their hand” and that the offer was “not the deal that I want” (Euronews, CBS News, 28 September).
- Iran’s offer, first floated on 22 September, tied a Hormuz reopening within seven days to an end to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, the release of frozen assets and an end to what Tehran calls US “acts of aggression” (OilPrice.com, 22 September; CNBC citing the Wall Street Journal, 26 September).
- The Wall Street Journal reported on 26 September that Trump has told aides he views a renewed bombing campaign as likely after the midterms, but has not decided its scale, partly because of dwindling munitions.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is “fully prepared for the war to be resumed” while remaining “ready for diplomacy” (CBS News). Bloomberg reported Iran said it will not soften its Hormuz demands.
- The offer alone had knocked Brent below $100, to about $98, on 22 September (OilPrice.com) – a live read on where the market goes if a deal looks real.
- Cross-asset: the US 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5.21 percent, the highest since 2007, and gold fell more than 2 percent to about $4,220 an ounce (Euronews, 28 September).
What changed over the weekend
For six days the oil market traded Iran’s offer as a possible off-ramp. Tehran put a seven-day reopening timeline on the table on 22 September, conditioned on Washington lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen assets and ending military operations. Brent reacted the way a supply-constrained market reacts to a hint of relief: it fell 3 percent in a session and dipped under $100 for the first time in a week, according to OilPrice.com.
That option has now been declined, at least in its current form. “I’m rejecting their deal,” Trump told reporters, according to CBS News. “They want to make a deal where they open the strait immediately because they are losing so badly.” He added that the terms were “what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago.” In the same breath he said he expects negotiations to resume this week – which is why Brent is up about $3, not $10.
Patrick O’Hare, an analyst at Briefing.com, called it “a dubious offer considering Iran hasn’t changed its conditions from before.” Read that way, the rejection did not destroy a deal so much as confirm that the two sides are still where they were in the summer. For oil, that means the Strait stays constrained: TradingEconomics currently puts flows through Hormuz at about 33.7 million barrels a week, a fraction of pre-war traffic.
The midterm timeline is the new variable
The more consequential line came before the rejection. On 26 September the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has told aides he sees renewed US strikes on Iran as likely after the November midterm elections, while stressing he does not want to resume major combat operations and has not decided on scale. Officials cautioned the position could change and could be shaped by the election result itself.
Asked directly whether strikes were possible before the midterms, Trump told reporters: “I don’t want to say that… it’s possible, but I just don’t want to say that,” according to CBS News. That gives oil traders something they rarely have in a geopolitical market – a date. The US midterm elections are on 3 November. Anything that looks like a deal before then caps the upside; nothing by then keeps the resumed-strikes tail in the price.
The other side is not blinking either. Araghchi said Tehran had not been formally notified of the rejection and is prepared for the war to resume, and Bloomberg reported Iran will not ease its conditions. A negotiation where both sides say talks are coming and neither side moves is exactly the environment in which a risk premium stays sticky.
Brent scenarios: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent level | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | ~$95 | Talks resume this week and produce a reopening framework with a date. The risk premium bleeds out quickly. | The 22 September reaction to the offer alone: Brent fell about 3 percent to ~$98 (OilPrice.com). The EIA’s September outlook has Brent averaging around $90 in the second half of 2026. |
| Base | $102 – $112 | Talks on, talks off, no reopening and no new strikes before the midterms. Brent chops between last week’s low and today’s high. | Trump says negotiations resume this week; Iran says it will not soften its demands. Brent has held above $98 for every session since the offer. |
| Bull | $120+ | The WSJ-reported post-midterm strike plan goes ahead, or Hormuz traffic falls further before then. | Goldman Sachs’ July note put Brent above $120 under a prolonged Hormuz disruption (an upside scenario, not its base case). HSBC’s stalemate case, from its 10 September revision, is also $120. |
The bear level sits about 11 percent below today’s price and is not a low-probability fantasy – the market already traded near it six days ago on a proposal that has not changed. The bull case needs an escalation, and the calendar puts the most likely window for that after 3 November rather than this week.
What to watch this week
- Any date for resumed talks. Trump has said they come this week. A confirmed meeting is the fastest route to the bear case.
- Tehran’s formal response. Araghchi says Iran has not been notified of the rejection; an official Iranian reply that hardens the seven conditions would lift the floor.
- Treasury yields. A 10-year above 5.2 percent tightens financial conditions and weighs on demand expectations – the one force leaning against higher oil right now.
- Red Sea shipping. Houthi activity near Bab el-Mandeb matters more while Hormuz is constrained, because it is the rerouting path.
Quick take: Monday’s jump is a repricing of time, not a new supply shock. The rejection removes the fastest path back to $95, and the reported post-midterm strike plan gives the upside a date. Until talks restart with a real reopening timetable, $100 looks like the floor and $120 the tail.
FAQ
Why did oil prices rise today?
Brent rose about 2.8 percent to $107.29 on 28 September after President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. The rejection pushed back the timeline for restoring oil flows through the waterway.
What did Iran offer on the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran proposed reopening the strait and resuming nuclear negotiations within seven days if the US lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports, released frozen assets and ended what Tehran calls acts of aggression. Trump said Iran had “overplayed their hand.”
Will the US strike Iran again?
The Wall Street Journal reported on 26 September that Trump has told aides he sees renewed strikes as likely after the 3 November midterms, but has not decided on their scale. Trump himself told reporters strikes before the midterms were “possible” but declined to say more.
How high could Brent go?
Goldman Sachs and HSBC have both put $120 on a prolonged-disruption or stalemate scenario. Neither bank treats it as a base case. Spot at $107 already sits well above most banks’ second-half averages, including the EIA’s roughly $90.
What would bring oil back below $100?
A credible reopening deal. When Iran first floated its seven-day proposal on 22 September, Brent fell about 3 percent to near $98 in a single session.
Where is WTI trading?
WTI was above $94 a barrel on Monday morning, up nearly 2 percent, according to Euronews, keeping the Brent-WTI spread around $13.
Related coverage
- Brent at $103: what prediction markets say about Kharg Island and Hormuz
- Crude oil and the Trump-Iran deal after the midterms
- Brent rose 3.4 percent as Hormuz deal talk hit
- Gold at $4,286 as real yields hit a 17-year high
Sources: TradingEconomics (Brent quote and performance, 28 September 2026); Euronews (Monday market moves, WTI, Treasury yields, gold, Trump quotes, 28 September 2026); CBS News live updates (Trump and Araghchi quotes, 28 September 2026); Bloomberg (Iran will not soften Hormuz demands, 28 September 2026); CNBC and the Wall Street Journal (Trump rejects Iran’s conditional proposal, post-midterm strikes, 26 September 2026); OilPrice.com (Iran’s seven-day offer and Brent’s fall to $98, 22 September 2026); Briefing.com (Patrick O’Hare); Goldman Sachs Global Commodities Research (July 2026, via TradingKey); HSBC (10 September 2026 revision); US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (September 2026).
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Commodity prices move continuously and the figures above were accurate at the time of writing. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before trading.