Updated 26 September 2026 (weekend – prices are Friday’s close). Silver finished the week at $64.17 an ounce, up $0.45 on Friday after trading between $63.24 and $65.22, per Kitco’s closing quote. The spot market reopens Sunday evening New York time, so this is the level that carries into next week.
Verdict: silver is holding above its 16 September low while the 10-year Treasury yield sits at a 19-year high. That is a stand-off, not a recovery. Bull case $70, base case $65-$67.50, bear case $62.
Key facts
- Silver at $64.17 at Friday’s close (Kitco, quote stamped 26 September), with a day range of $63.24 to $65.22. Trading Economics had the metal down 5.63 percent over the month and up 39.48 percent year on year.
- The week opened near $66.40 on 22 September (Eastern Herald), so silver gave back roughly 3.4 percent over five sessions.
- The metal is still about 47 percent below its all-time high near $121.6, set in January 2026 (Trading Economics, GoldSilver).
- The US 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.22 percent this week, its highest in 19 years, before easing to about 5.15 percent on Friday (FXStreet). The dollar index traded near 101.05.
- Gold held at $4,280.19 on Friday and the gold-silver ratio tightened to about 66.8 from above 67 (USAGOLD).
- The Fed raised rates to 3.75-4.00 percent on 16 September, its first hike since 2023. Markets price roughly a two-thirds to 70 percent chance of another hike in October (USAGOLD, Trading Economics).
- Next week’s data: August PCE inflation on Wednesday 30 September and the September jobs report on Friday 2 October, both at 8:30 a.m. ET (BEA and BLS release calendars).
Why silver fell this week
The move was almost entirely about the price of money. A run of strong US data, including PMI readings that showed business activity accelerating, pushed traders to price further tightening after the September hike. The 10-year yield followed, reaching 5.22 percent – a level last seen in 2007 – and the dollar climbed to two-month highs. For a metal that pays no interest, that is the least forgiving combination there is: the opportunity cost of holding silver instead of a Treasury is now the highest in nearly two decades.
Fed officials did nothing to push back. Governor Michael Barr said “further policy adjustments are likely to be needed” to bring inflation to target, and New York Fed President John Williams described the economy as showing “remarkable resilience” while calling inflation “the big challenge” (both quoted by FXStreet on 25 September). Our report on the Fed’s first hike since 2023 and the dot plot that signalled another move sets out how the committee got here.
What is notable is what did not happen. Silver did not break down. On Friday, with yields cooling from their peak, it bounced back through $65 intraday before settling at $64.17 – above the level that matters most on the chart.
The levels that decide the next move
FXStreet’s technical read on 25 September puts it simply. Support is the 16 September low at $62.30, the floor that held through the Fed decision itself. Resistance sits first at the 20-period exponential moving average near $65.15 – which capped Friday’s bounce almost to the cent – and then at the 3 September high of $67.52. The RSI at 50 is neutral: neither oversold enough to invite bargain hunters nor stretched enough to warn of exhaustion.
That leaves silver pinned inside a $62.30-$65.15 box, with a thin cushion of about $1.90 below spot and about $1 of room above before the first test. For context on how silver behaved immediately after the Fed decision, see our earlier silver price analysis at $64 after the Fed hike.
What the banks are saying
The forecast range has narrowed sharply, and mostly downward.
- J.P. Morgan cut its fourth-quarter 2026 silver forecast from $90 to $63, with a 2026 average of $70 and $63 for 2027. The driver is solar: the bank expects photovoltaic silver demand to fall sharply this year as panel makers use less silver per cell at current prices (J.P. Morgan Global Research, via TheStreet).
- UBS strategists Wayne Gordon and Dominic Schnider have reaffirmed a path of $70 by December 2026, $75 by March and June 2027 and $80 by September 2027, while flagging a more hawkish Fed as the near-term headwind (reported by Exchange Rates UK, 8-23 September).
- Trading Economics’ model projects about $66.68 by the end of the quarter and $81.81 on a 12-month view.
The supply side has not changed. The Silver Institute forecasts a 46.3 million-ounce market deficit for 2026 after 40.3 million ounces in 2025, but its partner Metals Focus sees photovoltaic demand falling to about 151.0 million ounces this year from 186.6 million in 2025 (via GoldSilver and FXEmpire). The deficit is still there – it is just smaller than the bull case of early 2026 assumed, which is why the $90-$100 targets have gone.
Gold is steadier, and the ratio says so
Gold has held a $4,300-$4,400 range for two weeks and was at $4,280 on Friday, while silver fell harder. The gold-silver ratio near 66.8 has actually tightened from above 67, which is a small positive: when silver outperforms gold on a down week, it usually means industrial and physical buyers are absorbing the selling rather than stepping away. The parallel setup in gold is covered in our gold price breakdown on October hike odds.
One structural change is worth knowing about if you watch silver on weekends: CME now lists round-the-clock trading in its smaller 100-ounce silver futures contract, so weekend prices can move before the main market reopens. Liquidity in that session is thin – see our report on CME silver futures’ first 24/7 weekend.
Silver price scenarios
| Scenario | Level | What has to happen |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | $62 and below | A daily close under the 16 September low of $62.30 (FXStreet). Most likely trigger: a hot August PCE on 30 September that lifts October hike odds and sends the 10-year back through 5.22 percent. J.P. Morgan’s $63 fourth-quarter average implies the bank sees silver spending the rest of the year around or below this zone. |
| Base | $65-$67.50 | Yields stabilise near 5.15 percent and silver clears the 20-period EMA at $65.15, then tests the 3 September high of $67.52. Consistent with Trading Economics’ quarter-end model at $66.68. Needs nothing new – just no fresh spike in yields. |
| Bull | $70 | A softer PCE print or a weak jobs number on 2 October pulls October hike odds down, yields retreat and the dollar eases. Silver breaks $67.52 and runs toward UBS’s $70 December target. UBS’s $80 September 2027 target and Trading Economics’ $81.81 12-month model sit beyond that as a longer-term stretch. |
All three levels are measured against Friday’s $64.17 close. The bear case sits about 3.4 percent below spot, the base case 1-5 percent above and the bull case about 9 percent above. The narrow bear gap is deliberate: $62.30 is the first real line, and there is no well-defined support under it until much lower.
Quick take
Silver at $64.17 is caught between the highest Treasury yields since 2007 and a supply deficit that has not gone away. The week’s 3.4 percent drop was a rates story, and the metal’s refusal to break $62.30 is the most important thing it did. Next week is data-driven: the 30 September PCE print and the 2 October jobs report will decide whether October hike odds rise or fall, and silver will follow yields. A close above $65.15 opens $67.52; a close below $62.30 opens the bear case.
What would prove this wrong
The analysis assumes silver keeps trading as a rate-sensitive asset. If it decouples from yields – for example on a physical squeeze, a sudden jump in industrial buying, or a shock that sends safe-haven money into metals regardless of rates – the scenario levels would be overtaken. On the other side, further cuts to solar demand estimates could push the bank consensus below J.P. Morgan’s $63, which would make the bear case a floor rather than a target.
FAQ
What is the silver price today?
Silver closed Friday 25 September at $64.17 an ounce, per Kitco. The main spot market is closed on weekends, so that is the reference price until trading resumes on Sunday evening New York time.
Why did silver fall this week?
Rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. The 10-year yield hit 5.22 percent, a 19-year high, as markets priced a possible second Fed hike in October. Higher yields raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest.
What is the key support level for silver?
$62.30, the 16 September low, according to FXStreet’s technical analysis. A daily close below it would put the bear case in play.
What are banks forecasting for silver?
UBS targets $70 by December 2026 and $80 by September 2027. J.P. Morgan cut its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast to $63 from $90, citing weaker solar demand. Trading Economics’ model points to about $81.81 in 12 months.
Is there still a silver supply deficit?
Yes. The Silver Institute forecasts a 46.3 million-ounce deficit in 2026, but photovoltaic demand is expected to fall to about 151 million ounces from 186.6 million in 2025, so the shortfall is smaller than earlier in the year.
What events could move silver next week?
The August PCE inflation report on Wednesday 30 September and the September jobs report on Friday 2 October. Both feed directly into October rate-hike expectations.
What is the gold-silver ratio now?
About 66.8, with gold at $4,280 on Friday, according to USAGOLD. The ratio tightened from above 67 this week, meaning silver held up slightly better than gold.
Sources: Kitco (closing spot quote), Trading Economics, FXStreet, USAGOLD, Eastern Herald, Yahoo Finance, J.P. Morgan Global Research via TheStreet, UBS via Exchange Rates UK, the Silver Institute and Metals Focus via GoldSilver and FXEmpire, BEA and BLS release calendars. Prices and forecasts as of 25-26 September 2026.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.