Updated 18 September 2026. Gold: $4,394.29 an ounce, up $52.90 (+1.22%) on the day. Silver: $66.71, up 2.33%. Gold is advancing for a second session, recovering the ground it lost into the Federal Reserve’s 16 September decision, while the Bank of Japan has just raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 1.25%.
Verdict: the driver is not the metal, it is the oil price. Brent has fallen for a third straight session to $102.41, which has pulled Treasury yields back from their post-Fed spike and taken the inflation input out of the bond market. Gold is the direct beneficiary. The Bank of Japan hike is a second, slower-burning support, because it removes the cheapest funding leg in global markets.
Spot prices are Trading Economics quotes as of 18 September 2026.
Key facts
- Gold is at $4,394.29 an ounce, up 1.22% and pressing toward $4,400.
- This is a two-day recovery, not a breakout. Gold touched a six-week low of $4,263.19 on 15 September as the dollar firmed ahead of the Fed, closed 16 September at $4,328.39, then rose roughly 2% on 17 September toward $4,360.
- Silver is outperforming at $66.71, up 2.33% on the day, after gaining about 3% on 17 September.
- The Fed hiked on 16 September, raising the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote, its first increase since 2023, and raised its median end-2026 projection to 4.1% from 3.8%.
- The Bank of Japan hiked on 18 September, lifting its policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25% on a 7-2 vote. Board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissented. Reporting on the decision described the new level as the highest since 1995.
- The BoJ cited upside inflation risk, pointing to the danger that inflation deviates above its 2% target, with higher oil prices named among the pressures.
- The yen barely moved. USD/JPY was around 156.25 after the decision, up about 0.18%, with the 10-year JGB yield sitting just below 3%.
- Falling crude is doing the work. Brent at $102.41 is down 2.30% on the day and lower for a third session, which is what has let yields and inflation expectations retreat.
Why gold is rising after a rate hike
A quarter-point increase in the fed funds rate should, in the textbook version, be bad for a non-yielding asset. Gold fell into the decision precisely on that logic, printing a six-week low on 15 September. What has happened since is a lesson in why the textbook version is incomplete.
The Fed’s hike was a response to energy-led inflation. Within 48 hours of the decision, the energy input reversed: Saudi Arabia signalled it could restore roughly half its damaged East-West pipeline within days, Brent dropped for three consecutive sessions to $102.41, and the inflation premium that had been building in the Treasury market came back out. Yields fell from their post-decision spike.
Gold does not care about the nominal policy rate in isolation. It cares about the real rate, which is the nominal yield minus expected inflation, and about the dollar. When the Fed hikes because inflation is rising, and then the thing causing the inflation stops rising, the real-rate impulse turns out to be far weaker than the headline suggested. That is the trade that has run on 17 and 18 September, and it is why silver, which carries more industrial beta, has moved further than gold in percentage terms.
What the Bank of Japan’s move to 1.25% changes
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on 18 September, on a 7-2 vote with Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting. Reporting on the decision characterised the level as the highest since 1995. The central bank framed the move around the risk that inflation deviates upward beyond its 2% target, with energy costs among the pressures cited.
Two features of the decision matter beyond Japan. The first is pace: this hike came three months after the previous one, compressed from the roughly six-month intervals the BoJ had used since it began normalising policy in March 2024. A faster cadence changes what markets assume about the next meeting, and traders have been pricing a stronger chance of another increase in December.
The second is the funding channel. For most of the last two decades the yen was the cheapest funding currency in the world, and a meaningful share of long positions in dollar assets and in commodities has historically been financed against it. Each increment of Japanese tightening raises the cost of that leg. The effect on gold is ambiguous in the short run and supportive over a longer horizon: it erodes the case for holding yen-funded carry and pushes capital toward assets that do not depend on rate differentials at all.
The immediate market reaction was muted. USD/JPY traded near 156.25 after the decision, up about 0.18%, because the dollar side of the pair has been strengthening on the Fed’s own hawkish turn. The 10-year JGB yield sat just below 3%. In other words, a good deal of this had already been priced during the week.
Silver is the sharper expression of the same trade
Silver is at $66.71 an ounce, up 2.33%. It climbed about 3% on 17 September and has extended again as oil has fallen. Because silver carries industrial demand alongside its monetary role, it tends to amplify moves that come from falling real yields rather than from pure risk aversion, and that is the shape of this move.
The ratio is worth watching more than either price alone. With gold at $4,394.29 and silver at $66.71, the gold-silver ratio sits near 66, which is toward the lower end of its long-run range. A ratio compressing while both metals rise is characteristic of a reflation-driven advance rather than a flight to safety. If the oil-led disinflation continues, silver is likely to keep leading; if the Iran file reopens and crude spikes again, gold should take the lead back.
Scenarios for gold
Anchors below are published bank forecasts and recent traded levels, not our own targets. Spot at the time of writing is $4,394.29.
| Scenario | Gold range | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $4,200 – $4,265 | Oil keeps falling, but the Fed’s dot plot is taken at face value and the dollar extends. Real yields rise on a strong-dollar, disinflating combination, and gold retests the low it printed going into the decision. | The six-week low of $4,263.19 set on 15 September. |
| Base | $4,400 – $4,500 | Crude stabilises somewhere near $100, the Fed delivers at most one more hike, and gold grinds into the level most of the sell-side has converged on for year-end. | JPMorgan cut its end-of-year gold forecast to $4,500 an ounce from $6,300, citing softer demand and the prospect of earlier Fed hikes. |
| Bull | $4,700 – $4,900 | The Saudi pipeline repair slips, or strikes on Iran resume, and the energy shock returns with the Fed already near the end of its hiking room. Inflation hedging demand reasserts itself into year-end. | Goldman Sachs’s end-2026 target of $4,900, cut from $5,400 on 20 June 2026 by analysts Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas on fading ETF inflows and the removal of 2026 rate cuts from their forecast. |
The spread between those bank numbers is itself the story. Goldman cut from $5,400 to $4,900; JPMorgan cut from $6,300 to $4,500. Both revisions were driven by the same realisation, that the Fed would not be cutting in 2026, and both were made before the Fed actually hiked. The hike is now in the price. What is not in the price is a second energy shock.
Quick take
Watch oil, not the Fed. Gold’s two-session recovery maps almost exactly onto Brent’s three-session decline. The Fed decision is done; the pipeline repair is not. If Brent breaks below $100 and stays there, the bear column becomes live because the disinflation narrative strengthens the dollar. If repairs slip and Brent retraces toward $108, the bull column opens.
The BoJ is a slow variable, not a fast one. A move to 1.25% did not shift USD/JPY meaningfully on the day, and it will not set gold’s direction this week. It matters over quarters, by raising the cost of yen-funded positions across the market and by adding a second major central bank to the tightening side of the ledger.
Silver is the higher-beta version. At $66.71 and up 2.33%, it is outrunning gold on the same catalyst. That is normal when the driver is falling real yields. It also means silver gives back more if the trade reverses.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Gold is trading at $4,394.29 an ounce on 18 September 2026, up $52.90 or 1.22% on the day, according to Trading Economics.
Why is gold rising if the Fed just raised rates?
Because the reason for the hike is reversing. The Fed moved on 16 September largely in response to energy-led inflation. Brent crude has since fallen for three straight sessions to $102.41, Treasury yields have retreated from their post-decision spike, and the real-rate pressure on gold has eased. Gold responds to real yields and the dollar, not to the nominal policy rate on its own.
What did the Bank of Japan do on 18 September 2026?
It raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on a 7-2 vote, with board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting. Reporting on the decision described the level as the highest since 1995. The BoJ cited the risk that inflation deviates upward beyond its 2% target.
How did the yen react to the BoJ hike?
Very little. USD/JPY traded around 156.25 after the decision, roughly 0.18% higher, with the dollar supported by the Fed’s own hawkish turn. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield sat just below 3%.
What is the silver price today?
Silver is at $66.71 an ounce on 18 September 2026, up 2.33%, after climbing about 3% on 17 September.
What is gold’s recent low?
Gold printed a six-week low of $4,263.19 on 15 September 2026, as the dollar firmed ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. It has recovered roughly $130 from that level.
What do banks forecast for gold at the end of 2026?
Goldman Sachs holds a $4,900 an ounce target, reduced from $5,400 on 20 June 2026 by analysts Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas. JPMorgan cut its end-of-year forecast to $4,500 from $6,300. Both revisions reflected the removal of expected 2026 Fed rate cuts, and both were made before the Fed actually hiked in September.
Sources
Spot prices for gold, silver and Brent crude: Trading Economics, 18 September 2026. Gold’s 15 and 16 September levels: USAGOLD daily precious metals market reports. Federal Reserve decision of 16 September 2026 and dot-plot revision: FOMC statement and projections. Bank of Japan decision of 18 September 2026, vote split and rationale: CNBC and Trading Economics reporting. Bank forecasts: Goldman Sachs end-2026 gold target as revised 20 June 2026; JPMorgan end-of-year gold forecast revision.
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