Updated 10 November 2026, 07:10 GMT. Brent crude was near $91 on Tuesday, with Trading Economics showing $91.12, after settling Monday at $92.57, down $5.75 or 5.85 percent (Reuters). Verdict: the market is pricing an end to the Iran conflict before either side has announced one, and Brent is at its lowest since late August. Reference levels: $98 above, $88 below.
Key facts
- Monday settlement: Brent $92.57, down 5.85 percent. WTI $86.85, down $3.98 or 4.38 percent (Reuters).
- After settlement: Brent extended its loss to more than $7 on Monday, and WTI to more than $5 (Reuters).
- Tuesday: Reuters had Brent at $92.33 and WTI at $86.50 at 01:02 GMT. Trading Economics later showed Brent at $91.12, and TradingKey put the Asian-session low at $91.47. These are different quote feeds, and the Trading Economics figure carries no time stamp.
- Last week: Brent fell 16 percent, its steepest weekly drop since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (Reuters).
- Surplus estimate: JPMorgan put the global oil surplus at about 1.4 million barrels a day in October (Reuters).
- OPEC output: up 1.38 million barrels a day in October to 22.87 million, according to a Reuters survey.
- CPI: the US October report is due today at 8:30 a.m. ET, 13:30 GMT (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Why oil fell
President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he was highly unlikely to order fresh attacks on Iran as long as talks to end the conflict progressed, Reuters reported. He later said military action was not necessary at this point, after appeals from regional governments, including Qatar’s prime minister during White House talks. KCM Trade’s Tim Waterer told Reuters the market is prioritising Trump’s “more conciliatory tone” since the midterms.
Traders have also been watching supply. BOK Financial’s Dennis Kissler told Reuters that crude volumes continue to move strongly through the Strait of Hormuz. Morgan Stanley noted that Dated Brent has fallen to a discount to the nearby futures contract, a sign of weakness in the physical market, according to the same report.
Why the risk has not gone away
Reuters reported that Trump plans to keep the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz for now. A senior Iranian security official told state media that Tehran has no plans to negotiate unless Washington takes practical steps on seven conditions in a June interim agreement. Both the US and Iran reported shipping being hit in or near the strait.
Gelber & Associates told Reuters that tanker incidents and an attack on Saudi Aramco’s offices show security risks remain unresolved. That is the main argument against extrapolating the sell-off. A price of $91 assumes a settlement that neither government has announced. Our Monday Brent page set out how the market stood before the settlement, and last Thursday’s page covers last week’s 9 percent crash.
The supply side is moving against the price
JPMorgan’s surplus estimate and the jump in OPEC output both point to a market that is less tight than the war headlines suggested. Against that, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 279.5 million barrels, the lowest since October 1982, according to Department of Energy data cited by Reuters. Any government buying to rebuild it would add demand.
Today’s CPI matters because higher prices have been driving talk of a December rate rise. Reuters cited CME FedWatch at 81 percent for a December hike on Monday morning. Oil’s drop eases one inflation pressure, but the October print will not yet reflect it. Our Saturday week-ahead page covers the calendar in more detail.
Brent price: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $88 | Iran talks gain formal momentum and the surplus narrative dominates. | TradingKey’s $88.21 Fibonacci level; about 3.4 percent below $91.12. |
| Base | $90-$95 | The market holds near Monday’s low while awaiting signs from Tehran and this week’s supply reports. | TradingKey’s $90.56 Monday low and the area above Monday’s settlement. |
| Bull | $98 | Talks stall or a new attack on shipping brings back a risk premium. | Friday’s $98.32 settlement (Reuters); about 7.6 percent above $91.12. |
The bear case sits below the current price. These are reference levels measured from Trading Economics’ Tuesday quote, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
- Today, 13:30 GMT: US October CPI.
- Today: the US Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- Wednesday 11 November: OPEC’s monthly oil market report.
- $90: the round number just below Monday’s $90.56 low.
- Tehran: any public response to Trump’s remarks or sign of talks restarting.
Quick take: Brent settled at $92.57 on Monday, down 5.85 percent, and traded near $91 on Tuesday as Trump played down new strikes on Iran. Surplus data supports the fall, but the blockade, tanker incidents and Tehran’s conditions all remain. Below $90, $88 is the next reference level. A failed peace narrative points back to $98.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
Brent was near $91 on Tuesday 10 November, with Trading Economics showing $91.12. Reuters had the futures contract at $92.33 at 01:02 GMT.
Why did oil prices fall on Monday?
Brent fell 5.85 percent after Trump said he was highly unlikely to order fresh attacks on Iran as long as talks progressed, Reuters reported. Traders also pointed to strong crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
How much did Brent fall last week?
Brent fell 16 percent last week, its steepest weekly drop since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Reuters.
Where did Brent settle on Monday?
Brent settled at $92.57 and WTI at $86.85 on 9 November, according to Reuters. Both kept falling after settlement.
Is the Strait of Hormuz open?
Crude continues to move through the strait, but both the US and Iran reported shipping being hit in or near it, and Reuters reported that Trump plans to keep the naval blockade in place for now.
What are the key Brent levels?
The $90.56 Monday low and the $88 reference level below. Monday’s $92.57 settlement and Friday’s $98.32 settlement above.
Sources: Reuters via Yahoo Finance and The Star, 9-10 November (settlements, Trump remarks, Iranian response, analyst comments, JPMorgan estimate, OPEC survey, Strategic Petroleum Reserve); Trading Economics, 10 November (Tuesday quote); TradingKey, 9-10 November (intraday lows, Fibonacci level); Reuters via FinanceFeeds coverage, 9 November (FedWatch odds, report calendar); Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.