Updated 9 November 2026, 07:00 GMT. Brent crude futures are trading near $96.45 a barrel on Monday, down $1.87 or 1.9 percent from Friday’s $98.32 settlement (Yahoo Finance, 06:40 GMT; Trading Economics showed $96.61). President Trump said new attacks on Iran were “highly unlikely” while talks progress, but ships were still reported hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Verdict: the market is still removing war risk after a 16 percent weekly fall, while no deal has been signed. Reference levels: $93 below, $104 above.
Key facts
- Monday price: about $96.45 at 06:40 GMT (Yahoo Finance). Trading has been choppy: Brent opened near $97.50, then stood at $98.35 by 04:27 GMT, up 3 cents, before falling again (Reuters).
- WTI: US West Texas Intermediate was $91.30 at the same 04:27 GMT check, up 0.5 percent (Reuters).
- Last week: Brent fell 16 percent, the steepest weekly drop since the start of the Covid pandemic (Reuters). Our Saturday Brent page covers that fall.
- The low: January Brent settled at $93.52 on Wednesday 4 November (our Thursday Brent page), and HDFC Sky put last week’s low at $93.22.
- Supply: JPMorgan estimated a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million in October (Reuters).
- Next: US October CPI on Tuesday 10 November at 13:30 GMT, and OPEC’s monthly report on Wednesday.
What Trump said, and what he did not
Trump told CNN he was highly unlikely to order new attacks while talks to end the conflict and reopen Hormuz make progress. The remark was conditional. Asked about the outcome, he said: “It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement” (Reuters).
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, described Trump’s comments as “more measured” (Reuters). Oil’s first reaction was lower, then the market steadied in Asian hours as traders weighed the remaining risks.
Those risks remain real. Both the US and Iran reported shipping being hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters; Gulf News). US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Iran’s demands “unacceptable”, and Trading Economics also noted Houthi attacks on a Riyadh building and Saudi Aramco offices. Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet in New Delhi, told Reuters: “Despite the recent optimism surrounding a potential diplomatic breakthrough, the underlying geopolitical risks remain elevated.”
Why CPI matters for oil this week
Lower oil is already feeding into interest rate expectations. Gold rose on Monday because cheaper crude eased inflation concerns, as covered on our Monday gold page. CME FedWatch shows an 81 percent chance of a December rate hike (Reuters), so a hot CPI report on Tuesday could strengthen the dollar and weigh on commodity prices.
Supply is the other side of the trade. JPMorgan’s surplus estimates argue against a quick return to last month’s prices if Hormuz traffic recovers. If talks fail, that surplus matters less than lost supply.
Levels to watch
FXEmpire’s most recent oil forecast, published last week with Brent near $99.66, identified $104.16 as the retest resistance and kept a slightly bearish bias below it. On the downside, the $93.22-$93.52 zone from last week is the nearest support on the chart.
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $93 | Talks advance towards a signed agreement and Hormuz traffic improves. | Last week’s low: $93.52 settlement and $93.22 intraday; about 3.6 percent below $96.45. |
| Base | $95-$100 | Talks continue with no breakthrough and shipping incidents continue. | Monday’s trading range so far and the level near $100 reached late last week. |
| Bull | $104 | Talks break down or Hormuz attacks increase sharply. | FXEmpire’s $104.16 retest resistance; about 7.8 percent above $96.45. |
The bear case sits below the current price. These are reference levels measured from the 06:40 GMT quote, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
- Iran talks: any sign of a signed framework, or a reversal of Trump’s comment.
- Hormuz: further reports of ships being hit.
- Tuesday 10 November: US October CPI at 13:30 GMT and the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- Wednesday 11 November: OPEC’s monthly oil market report.
- Dollar: a firmer dollar after CPI would add pressure on oil.
Quick take: Brent is near $96.45 on Monday, down about 1.9 percent, after Trump said new Iran attacks were highly unlikely if talks progress. Shipping incidents continue and no agreement exists. A deal path points to $93; a breakdown points to $104.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude price today?
Brent was about $96.45 a barrel at 06:40 GMT on Monday 9 November, down 1.9 percent from Friday’s $98.32 settlement (Yahoo Finance).
Why is oil falling today?
President Trump said he was highly unlikely to order new attacks on Iran while talks progress, which reduced the war risk priced into crude (Reuters).
How much did Brent fall last week?
Brent fell 16 percent last week, its steepest weekly drop since the start of the Covid pandemic (Reuters).
What is the WTI price today?
WTI was $91.30 a barrel at 04:27 GMT on Monday, up 0.5 percent at that time (Reuters). Prices have moved since then.
Is the oil market in surplus?
JPMorgan estimated a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September and 1.4 million in October (Reuters). The Strait of Hormuz disruption remains the main risk to those estimates.
What are the key Brent levels this week?
Support at $93.22-$93.52 from last week and resistance at $104.16 (FXEmpire).
Sources: Yahoo Finance, 9 November (06:40 GMT Brent quote and prior settlement); Trading Economics, 9 November (Brent quote, Rubio and Houthi items); Reuters via Business Recorder and Global Banking and Finance, 9 November (04:27 GMT prices, weekly fall, Trump remarks, Sachdeva and Waterer comments, JPMorgan estimates, FedWatch odds); Gulf News, 9 November (Hormuz shipping); FXEmpire, 6 November (levels); HDFC Sky, November (weekly low).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.