Most people who have a prescription for a weight-loss drug have to take a shot once every week. For people who are on Wegovy or Zepbound, that’s 52 shots a year.
That can be inconvenient for some people, especially those who dislike injections, and missing too many shots can hinder your progress.
That’s why Amgen (AMGN) wants to reduce the number of shots needed. The company is developing an obesity drug called MariTide that patients would only need to take once a month, or possibly once every three months.
If the drug’s late-stage trials pan out, patients could drop from having to take 52 injections a year to as few as four or 12.
Amgen started a Phase 3 trial comparing MariTide directly with Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide during the third quarter. Amgen also finished enrollment in its sleep apnea and heart health studies, and beat Wall Street’s earnings estimate during the quarter.
During the earnings call, CEO Robert Bradway said Amgen “delivered another strong quarter,” and the company raised its full-year outlook as well.
Why less frequent dosing could change the weight-loss routine
The weight-loss market is mostly dominated by Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Zepbound and Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Wegovy right now. Both of those drugs are weekly injections.
And there are instances of many patients quitting them within a year, usually because of side effects, cost, or the hassle of injecting every week, a JMCP study showed.
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That’s why Amgen feels a monthly option would help anyone who has struggled with that routine. Fewer doses are also more convenient for people who live far from a pharmacy or travel often for work.
To complete their goal, Amgen said its first Phase 3 Type 2 diabetes study that will compare MariTide directly with Novo’s semaglutide is now enrolling. The company also has two more diabetes trials apart from that one scheduled to start before the end of 2026. In addition, enrollment is already done for two sleep apnea studies and a cardiovascular outcomes trial.
What Amgen’s third-quarter earnings mean for the MariTide bet
Amgen‘s third-quarter revenue rose 8% to $10.4 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share increased 14% to $6.45. That beat Wall Street’s estimate of $5.79, Investing.com reported, citing LSEG data. The company also raised its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to $22.90 to $23.70 per share.
While Amgen’s updated forecast shows strong execution across its current commercial portfolio, the company’s long-term stock valuation depends heavily on pipeline delivery. That means the stock’s next move depends a lot on the outcome of MariTide’s Phase 3 trials.
The big winners in this Amgen quarter were Repatha, a cholesterol drug that rose 37% to $1.08 billion, and UPLIZNA, a rare autoimmune disease medicine that rose 191% to $451 million. Amgen’s lung cancer therapy IMDELLTRA also increased by 128% to $406 million.
What could still go wrong with MariTide
The obesity market is huge, with Goldman Sachs expecting it to reach $114 billion by 2030. But MariTide is still far from being approved.
The drug’s Phase 2 data showed an efficiency of about 20% average weight loss over a year, which came in below Zepbound’s numbers and was also short of the 28% delivered by Lilly’s experimental drug, retatrutide.
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Truist Securities wrote earlier this year that MariTide “remains the focal point” for Amgen, but added that its real-world potential depends on whether the drug can actually successfully pull off the less frequent dosing for long-term use.
If the Phase 3 results in 2027 come in similar to Phase 2, Amgen may struggle to catch up to Lilly and Novo on weight loss alone.
What everyday investors should think about
Amgen is a diversified company with 17 products already on track to earn more than $1 billion a year. The company also has extra potential if MariTide succeeds.
However, if MariTide disappoints in its late-stage testing, the pipeline will become less exciting, even as the base business remains.
Before buying, I’d suggest speaking with a financial advisor and checking whether your portfolio already has exposure to the weight-loss theme. A single biotech investment should not take up too much room in a diversified portfolio.
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