Updated 5 November 2026, 07:00 GMT. Brent crude traded at $94.12 a barrel at 06:35 GMT on Thursday, down 0.53 percent (ICE data via DealPlexus), with the January 2027 contract at $94.17 on Investing.com and an overnight range of $93.50-$94.77. That comes after Wednesday’s crash of roughly 9 percent, as traders priced a US-Iran settlement. Feeds disagree on the exact close: $93.52, down 9.73 percent (Oilprice.com futures data), or $94.62, down about 8.7 percent (Investing.com, Kitco). Verdict: the selling has slowed but not reversed, and Brent is sitting just above its 200-day average near $93.15 (DealPlexus). The next move depends on whether talk of a deal turns into a signed one. Reference levels: $90 below, $100 above.
Key facts
- Price: Brent $94.12 at 06:35 GMT Thursday 5 November (DealPlexus, ICE); Oilprice.com showed $93.99, down 0.67 percent. WTI traded at $87.02, down 1.25 percent (Oilprice.com).
- Wednesday: Brent January 2027 fell $10.08 to $93.52, after opening at $104.23, and WTI fell 8.88 percent to $87.56 (Oilprice.com futures data). At 9:40 a.m. ET Brent had still been at $100.60.
- The week: FinanceFeeds carried Brent at $113 on Sunday, which makes this a fall of about 17 percent in four sessions.
- The curve: the January-December 2027 spread narrowed from $18.72 to $14.96 in one session (Oilprice.com futures data).
- Physical oil: Murban slipped only 1.24 percent to $100.90 on Wednesday while futures fell about 9 percent (Oilprice.com).
- Inventories: the API reported a 5.27 million-barrel US crude draw for the week to 30 October (Oilprice.com). It did not stop the slide.
Why Brent crashed
Several signals on a deal landed together. Donald Trump told the Financial Times that Washington has no immediate plans to strike Iran, saying “We seem to be getting everything we want,” and JD Vance said the two sides had “certainly made some progress” (Oilprice.com). A senior Iranian official said Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the US lifts oil sanctions and releases frozen assets.
Priyanka Sachdeva at Phillip Nova put part of the fall down to “profit-taking and reduced speculative long positions” after October’s rally (Oilprice.com). Our desk report on Wednesday’s $93.52 settlement breaks down the session contract by contract.
The shape of the move matters. The front of the curve fell the most and the back the least, so the January-December 2027 spread shrank by $3.76. That is what happens when a war premium comes out of prompt barrels. A demand scare would hit the whole curve more evenly.
What has not changed
There is no signed agreement. Trump also told Fox News that a “heavy hit” on Iran remains possible, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed four tankers were destroyed by mines near the Strait, a claim Oilprice.com said has not been independently confirmed.
Supply is also looser than the war headlines suggested. JPMorgan estimated the October oil surplus at 1.4 million barrels per day, up from 1.1 million in September, with Middle East exports back to about 20.7 million barrels per day from a March low of 9.8 million (Oilprice.com). That cushion is one reason the market was willing to sell so quickly.
The midterms play a smaller part. Michelle Brouhard at Kpler noted that the new Congress is not seated until 3 January, which gives the administration almost two months to act before a Democratic majority can constrain war funding (Oilprice.com). Our Wednesday Brent page set $100 as the floor; it broke the same day.
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $90 | Washington and Tehran announce terms with a date for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the remaining war premium comes out. | Below the S2 pivot at $92.67 and the 200-day average near $93.15 (DealPlexus); about 4.4 percent below $94.12. |
| Base | $92-$97 | Talks continue without a signed deal and the market consolidates after the crash. | Between the $92.67 support and the $95.67 R2 pivot (DealPlexus), with a little room above. |
| Bull | $100 | Talks stall, a tanker incident is confirmed or Washington repeats strike threats, and shorts cover. | The level Brent held at 9:40 a.m. ET on Wednesday ($100.60, Oilprice.com); about 6.2 percent above spot. |
The bear case sits below Thursday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified price, not forecasts. The 14-day RSI of 32.9 (DealPlexus) shows Brent is close to oversold, which can slow a further fall without reversing it.
What to watch
- Any text of a US-Iran agreement, especially a date for Hormuz and the terms on sanctions and frozen assets.
- Confirmation or denial of the tanker mine claims near the Strait.
- $92.67-$93.15: the support pivot and the 200-day average. A daily close below both opens the $90 area.
- Friday’s US payrolls at 8:30 a.m. ET, which move the dollar and therefore oil priced in dollars. Gold has been the mirror image of oil this week; see our Thursday gold page.
Quick take: Brent is at about $94 on Thursday, down another 0.5 percent after Wednesday’s roughly 9 percent crash on US-Iran deal bets. The curve says a war premium is coming out, but there is no signed deal yet and threats continue on both sides. Expect $92-$97 while talks run; $90 needs a signed Hormuz agreement, $100 needs talks to break down.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
Brent traded at $94.12 a barrel at 06:35 GMT on Thursday 5 November, down 0.53 percent (ICE data via DealPlexus). Investing.com showed the January 2027 contract at $94.17.
Why did oil prices crash on Wednesday?
Traders priced a settlement between the US and Iran after Trump said there were no immediate plans to strike, Vance said progress had been made and an Iranian official said Hormuz could reopen within two days if sanctions are lifted (Oilprice.com). Profit-taking after October’s rally added to the fall.
How much did Brent fall?
Brent January 2027 settled at $93.52, down $10.08 or 9.73 percent, on Oilprice.com’s futures data. Other feeds show a $94.62 close, down about 8.7 percent. Either way it was a fall of roughly $10 in one session.
What is the WTI price today?
WTI traded at $87.02 on Thursday morning, down 1.25 percent (Oilprice.com), after falling 8.88 percent to $87.56 on Wednesday.
Could oil go back above $100?
Yes, if the talks fail. There is no signed agreement, Trump has said a “heavy hit” on Iran remains possible, and tanker attacks near the Strait would bring the risk premium back.
Did the US midterms move oil?
Only at the margin. Analysts said a Democratic Congress could constrain war funding, but it is not seated until 3 January (Kpler via Oilprice.com). The Iran talks were the main driver.
Sources: DealPlexus ICE Brent quote, 5 November 06:35 GMT (price, range, pivots, moving averages, RSI); Investing.com Brent January 2027 contract (last, previous close, range); Oilprice.com price charts and news, 4-5 November (WTI, Murban, Wednesday settlement, curve spreads, API inventories, Trump, Vance, Iranian official, Phillip Nova, Kpler and JPMorgan comments); Kitco PM report, 4 November (Brent close).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.