Your grocery bill could rise again, analysts warn

You can cut down on travel or opt for a nearby park instead of weekend day trips to budget for extra expenses.

But groceries still remain an essential that is hard to cut. And today, a trip to the grocery store costs substantially more than it did just a few years ago.

I live in New York, and buying simple essentials like bread, milk, and eggs ends up costing over $40. My friends tell me that a weekly grocery run now costs over $300 for their family of five adults and two children, and has become increasingly expensive in the past year.

A typical 84-item grocery stock-up basket now costs about $366, up from roughly $288 in 2020; an increase of more than $78, or nearly 27%, as tracked by consulting firm Acosta.

And even though grocery inflation has cooled considerably from its pandemic-era highs, consumers are still paying today’s increases on top of several years of earlier price gains.

This helps explain why shoppers do not feel much relief.

Food-at-home prices were unchanged in August from July but remained 2.2% higher than a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But:

Overall food prices increased 2.7%.
Electricity prices were up 3.8%
Utility-piped natural gas rose 4.4%
Gasoline climbed 27.4% from a year earlier.

Those pressures are showing up in consumer behavior.

Seventy-five percent of Americans surveyed by Algolia said they were stressed about their grocery bills, up from 73% a year earlier.

Forty-two percent said they had switched to private-label products to save money, while 36% replaced their favorite brands with cheaper alternatives.

Another 41% cut back on premium meat or seafood, and 39% bought fewer nonessential foods such as snacks and treats.

Now, shoppers may have another reason to watch supermarket prices closely.

Bank of America estimates that food-at-home inflation could accelerate to between 7% and 8% over the next six months as higher fuel, wage, and commodity costs work their way through the food supply chain.

That would represent a sharp increase from today’s 2.2% rate.

Why grocery prices could climb again

Bank of America’s warning centers on costs consumers rarely see on a supermarket price tag.

The firm’s indicator combines wages, fuel, and commodity trends. These are expenses that can affect the cost of growing, manufacturing, packaging, and transporting food.

These pressures moved higher again in August.

BofA said diesel price growth accelerated from 31% in July to 46% in August, after declining over the previous two months.

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Transportation costs are particularly important because fuel touches nearly every part of the grocery supply chain.

Farmers use fuel to operate equipment, and manufacturers use it to process and package food. Distributors move products through warehouses, and trucks deliver them to supermarkets across the country.

If these costs remain elevated, retailers eventually have to decide how much they can absorb and how much they pass on to shoppers.

Bank of America said food retailers historically have been able to pass through price increases and that comparable sales tend to correlate closely with food inflation.

That makes retailers such as Kroger and Albertsons worth watching if grocery inflation accelerates.

Could Kroger and Albertsons prices move higher?

Bank of America is not forecasting specific price increases at Kroger or Albertsons.

But its latest spending data show that shoppers are already spending more per transaction at some grocery chains.

Albertsons’ observed sales rose 1.4%, while average transaction value increased 4%. Transactions, however, remained down 2.5%.

That does not necessarily mean Albertsons broadly raised shelf prices. Customers may be buying different products, filling larger baskets, or sales may have been affected by the Labor Day shift.

But higher spending per transaction alongside fewer transactions highlights the tension grocers face as consumers remain price-sensitive.

Kroger’s observed sales growth accelerated to 3.2%, while its transaction decline narrowed to 0.5%, according to BofA.

Kroger has separately acknowledged some of the same cost pressures BofA is watching. The supermarket chain said its first-quarter gross margin was pressured in part by higher transportation costs and planned price investments intended to keep its offerings competitive.

Albertsons faces a similar problem.

Bank of America lists the risk that an economic downturn could drive customers toward value-oriented rivals, including Walmart, Costco, and Aldi, for Albertsons.

Bank of America warns food at home prices may increase soon.

Tom Werner / Getty Images

Walmart is leaning harder into lower prices

Walmart presents a somewhat different case.

The retail giant has continued emphasizing price cuts as consumers search for value. During its latest quarter, Walmart said its U.S. business delivered more than 11,000 rollbacks.

The company also said it received nearly $2.9 billion in tariff refunds and prioritized investing some of that money in lower prices because customers were looking to Walmart for value.

It does not mean Walmart is completely immune to another sharp rise in food costs.

But the company’s scale and emphasis on price can be increasingly important if grocery inflation accelerates and consumers become even more willing to switch stores.

That behavior is already taking hold.

44% of consumers said they do not necessarily have a go-to grocery store.
28% compare prices across multiple retailers to maximize value
16% compare retailers before choosing the one with the best overall prices.
- Source: Algolia

Shoppers are splitting grocery trips across stores

Location data points to the same shift.

Placer.ai found grocery visit growth in 2026 has increasingly been driven by low- and middle-income households navigating higher food costs.

These shoppers are making more frequent, targeted trips and increasingly splitting purchases among retailers based on price, availability, and their needs.

Visits lasting less than 15 minutes accounted for more than 40% of grocery visits in 2025, up from 37.9% in 2022, according to Placer.ai.

The firm said some of that growth reflects shoppers visiting multiple stores in search of stronger deals.

That means a household may buy staples at Walmart, stock up on certain items at Costco or Aldi, and use Kroger or Albertsons for other products.

For grocers, that makes holding on to each item on the shopping list increasingly important.

For consumers, it means getting the lowest grocery bill may require more comparison shopping than it once did.

Grocery shoppers feel inflation even as rate slows

Acosta’s research helps explain that disconnect.

Its $366 grocery basket is nearly 27% more expensive than in 2020, while median hourly earnings increased by about 29% over the same period.

Acosta said grocery purchasing power has improved from its 2023 low. Yet shoppers have continued to use promotions, scrutinize purchases, and switch brands even as purchasing power improved.

That suggests some of the habits consumers picked up during the inflation surge may be sticking around.

And pressure varies substantially depending on what households buy.

Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 3.7% over the 12 months through August
Fruit and vegetable prices increased 3.2%
Cereals and bakery products were up 2.6%
Meat, poultry, fish, and egg prices rose 1.1%
Dairy and related products fell 0.3%.
- Source: BLS

These differences highlight that every household experiences grocery inflation differently.

Not everyone expects grocery inflation to reach 8%

Bank of America’s outlook is considerably more aggressive than the federal government’s current food-price forecast.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects food-at-home prices to rise an average 2.5% in 2026, with a forecast range of 1.7% to 3.3%.

The two estimates are not directly comparable.

USDA is forecasting the average change in food prices across the full year, while Bank of America’s indicator estimates where the year-over-year food-at-home inflation rate could move roughly six months ahead.

Still, the difference shows that a jump to 7% or 8% is a risk scenario rather than a universal forecast.

USDA nevertheless expects seven grocery categories to rise faster than their 20-year historical averages this year. This includes beef and veal, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, sugar and sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages.

For shoppers, that means pressure could remain significant in individual aisles even if overall food inflation stays far below Bank of America’s projection.