Strong US PMIs and hawkish Fed rate hike bets boosted the US dollar and yields while WTI oil rebounded.
Record US S&P Global Composite PMI Surge to 58.4
Preliminary September S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data revealed an extraordinary expansion in US business activity, with the Composite PMI climbing to 58.4 from 56.0 in August. This marked the fastest output growth rate observed for over five years, pointing to a private sector that continues to build aggressive momentum. Underlying details showed the Manufacturing PMI jumping to 57.0 from 53.9, while the Services PMI accelerated to 58.7 from 54.6, indicating widespread strengthening in demand across both sectors. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson, historical survey comparisons point toward an annualized economic growth rate of around 5%, signaling a robust 4% gain for the third quarter overall. This dramatic outperformance heavily reinforces the dominant market narrative of US economic exceptionalism relative to other developed nations.
73% Probability of October Rate Hike and 5% Treasury Yields
Fueled by hotter-than-expected economic momentum and persistent inflationary pressures, expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy path shifted aggressively. Following hawkish commentary from various Fed officials—including Governor Michael Barr warning that inflation is not clearly trending toward the 2% target in a timely manner—money market bets for a subsequent interest rate hike at the October meeting surged to roughly 73%. This hawkish repricing sent shockwaves through fixed-income markets, pushing the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield past the 5% threshold to fresh multi-year highs. The widening interest rate differentials and surging yields have powerfully underpinned the US Dollar Index (DXY) toward fresh two-month tops, while simultaneously creating severe headwinds for non-yielding assets like gold and exerting downward pressure across major equity averages like the Dow Jones.
WTI Crude Rebound Above $90 Amid US-Iran Talks and Diesel Export Ban Plans
Crude oil markets experienced intense volatility, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) staging a strong rebound back above $90 per barrel after breaking a five-day losing streak. This recovery was driven by a complex mix of geopolitical developments, including ongoing indirect diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, where key matters like the status of the Strait of Hormuz and naval blockades were deliberated. Compounding these supply anxieties, market sentiment was further jolted by reports that the administration is preparing a 90-day ban on US diesel exports to force domestic energy prices down. These shifting energy dynamics, paired with lingering regional supply risks, continue to heavily drive global inflation expectations and shape broader currency and commodity market directions.
Top economic events for next week:
- 09/24/2026 01:30:00 – Employment Change s.a. / Unemployment Rate s.a.: These high-impact Australian labor market indicators are critical for assessing domestic economic health. They directly influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming monetary policy decisions and heavily dictate short-term movements in the Australian Dollar.
- 09/24/2026 07:30:00 – SNB Interest Rate Decision: This is a top-tier high-impact event for the Swiss Franc. The Swiss National Bank’s official rate decision sets the borrowing costs for the nation, directly steering currency valuation and reacting to European inflationary pressures.
- 09/24/2026 07:30:00 – SNB Monetary Policy Assessment: Released alongside the interest rate decision, this comprehensive assessment provides deep insights into the central bank’s economic outlook, inflation forecasts, and future policy trajectory for Switzerland.
- 09/24/2026 08:00:00 – SNB Press Conference: Following the rate decision and policy assessment, central bank leadership hosts this live conference to elaborate on their decisions, giving traders crucial real-time context regarding future Swiss Franc volatility.
- 09/24/2026 08:00:00 – IFO – Business Climate: As a medium-impact leading indicator for Germany, this survey of German business executives provides vital early signals on the health of Europe’s largest economy and heavily impacts the Euro.
- 09/24/2026 12:30:00 – Retail Sales (MoM): This medium-impact Canadian release measures changes in consumer spending at the retail level. Because consumer spending drives a vast portion of economic activity, it heavily influences the Canadian Dollar and Bank of Canada expectations.
- 09/24/2026 12:30:00 – Initial Jobless Claims: A closely watched medium-impact US metric tracking weekly filings for unemployment benefits. It serves as a timely indicator of labor market shifts and overall economic resilience in the United States.
- 09/25/2026 07:00:00 – Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): This medium-impact European release provides a comprehensive quarterly measure of economic output and growth across the Eurozone, serving as a fundamental baseline for European Central Bank policy.
- 09/25/2026 12:30:00 – Durable Goods Orders: A significant medium-impact US economic indicator tracking new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for long-lasting goods. It reflects business investment confidence and broader industrial demand.
- 09/25/2026 14:00:00 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: This medium-impact survey gauges consumer attitudes toward business conditions, personal finances, and inflation expectations in the US, offering valuable insight into future consumer spending patterns.
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