Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has had a rough year, and the burrito chain has been cooking up ways to get back up. One way the chain is bringing diners back to its stores is by introducing a steady stream of fresh menu items. Based on the third-quarter results the company reported recently, that strategy seems to be working.
On October 28, 2026, Chipotle reported Q3 results, and according to its SEC filing, the chain’s comparable restaurant sales grew 2.1%, beating Wall Street expectations. The company beat expectations even after the business was potentially linked to a Salmonella outbreak in the U.S., which caused its stock to fall back in August.
Investors clearly liked the stock’s Q3 performance, as CMG climbed more than 8% on October 29 before closing around $31 per share. Bank of America analyst Sara Senatore also maintained her Buy rating and $53 price target on CMG after the Q3 report.
Why the brisket return matters for Chipotle’s comeback
Chipotle confirmed that its Mesquite-Smoked Brisket will return to U.S. and Canadian menus on November 5, 2026, right in the heart of football season.
That matters because the last time the brisket launched on Chipotle’s menu back in September 2024, it increased the chain’s customer transactions by 4% and the average amount customers spent during a single visit, NRN reported.
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That’s one reason Senatore believes the fresh menu items can boost the company’s fourth-quarter performance. She wrote in a BofA research note shared with me that Chipotle’s “more proactive approach to driving traffic, more frequent menu innovations, revamped loyalty, social media marketing” is working.
And since the chain’s September comparable sales were up 3.8%, she feels confident that the November launch can further lift fourth-quarter trends.
Why Bank of America still sees CMG stock as a bargain
In her note, Sara Senatore trimmed Chipotle’s 2027 earnings forecast slightly to $1.37 per share. But that is mostly because of the higher labor costs tied to new apprentice managers. Even with the trimmed forecast, she still expects Chipotle’s comparable sales to grow by about 3.8% next year, which supports her Buy call. Her $53 price target also suggests she expects the stock to rise substantially from its current level near $31.
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Bank of America sees CMG as a bargain because the stock has fallen about 17% so far in 2026 and it now trades at 13.8 times forward EV/EBITDA. That is lower than its five-year average of nearly 25 times. Usually, that kind of discount on a brand this strong is worth watching.
The concerns investors shouldn’t ignore
Chipotle‘s Q3 report also had its weak spots, which investors should consider. The company’s restaurant-level operating margin fell to 23.3% from 24.5% a year earlier, which means Chipotle is making less profit on every dollar of restaurant sales. The company’s earnings per share also dropped by about 7% to $0.27.
More Restaurant Stocks:
- Applebee’s menu adds new items amid slumping customer foot traffic
- McDonald’s plans major store changes to attract more customers
- KFC plans a massive soda change last seen 40 years ago
However, Chipotle’s management still believes their plans are paying off. Scott Boatwright, the company’s CEO, told investors that “three consecutive quarters of positive comparable transaction growth demonstrate that our Recipe for Growth strategy is working.” The question now is whether that progress can hold up once the potential holiday brisket boost fades.
What CMG investors should watch over the next two quarters
The next two quarters will play an important role in Chipotle’s fresh menu plan. The November brisket launch has to drive enough traffic to offset areas where the business isn’t doing so well. So investors should watch same-store sales when Chipotle’s fourth-quarter report comes out.
Investors should also track Chipotle’s high-efficiency equipment rollout to see whether installations continue as planned. Senatore wrote that each upgraded unit could gradually add “the additional 5 entrees per day that equate to a point of comp.” That could be a boost to the company’s numbers.
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