Bitcoin is heading into the final hours of October near $77,400, leaving the monthly candle roughly 7.4% below where the month began and less than 2% above the $76,443 level printed during Thursday night’s post-Binance selloff.
A Coinbase spot feed showed BTC at approximately $77,414 at 12:53 UTC on October 31. Using the roughly $83,555 price around 00:00 UTC on October 1 as the starting point, that puts Bitcoin down about 7.4% for the month so far.
The candle does not close until 00:00 UTC on November 1, so the final October return is not fixed yet.
That distinction matters because published estimates for the month have differed depending on price source, timestamp and currency pair. CryptoTicker calculated a 6.5% October decline when Bitcoin was at $78,186 on October 30. CoinOtag had the decline at about 3.8% in an earlier October 30 snapshot. Neither figure describes the market at the time of writing on October 31.
Where Bitcoin Stands Into the October Close
The immediate range is narrow compared with the volatility that produced it.
Bitcoin was around $77,400 in the latest Coinbase-linked quote, after falling into the low-$76,000s on October 30 and then recovering. CoinDesk put the post-hack low at about $76,460, while CryptoTicker recorded $76,443. Other market feeds printed slightly different lows, including values closer to $76,100.
That makes $76,443 useful as a market reference rather than a universal exchange-wide low.
Above the market, $79,000 is now the first simple recovery line. From $77,400, Bitcoin would need to gain a little more than 2% before the monthly close to retake it.
Below, $76,443 is only around 1.3% away. A break through that area would put the market back near the technical zone FinanceFeeds was already watching on October 30, when Bitcoin broke below $80,000 and Wave C extended toward $75,200 support.
How Big Is Bitcoin’s October Drop?
The cleanest way to measure the month is to state both the starting mark and the live price.
Bitcoin was around $83,555 at 00:00 UTC on October 1. At approximately $77,414 at 12:53 UTC on October 31, the decline is about 7.4%.
CoinGecko’s daily historical table still shows the October 31 close as unavailable because the UTC day has not finished. Its October 30 daily close was about $77,223. That is why any article calling October’s final return before midnight UTC is necessarily using an intraday number.
The gap between that calculation and the previously published 6.5% and 3.8% figures is not necessarily an error. Bitcoin trades continuously, different data providers construct daily candles differently and both of those articles were written before the latest leg lower.
The important point for the October close is the current mark: Bitcoin is now much closer to $76,000 than to the roughly $83,500 area where the month started.
The $76,443 Reference and the $79,000 Line
CryptoTicker’s $76,443 print has become the near-term downside reference after the Binance-driven liquidation wave.
It should not, however, be described as September’s monthly low. CryptoTicker itself described $76,443 as the October 30 overnight low and the lowest level since September 18. Other historical feeds show Bitcoin trading below $75,000 during September.
For traders watching only the final October hours, the setup is simpler.
A move back through $79,000 would reduce part of the damage from the final two sessions but would still leave Bitcoin clearly lower for October. A move back through $76,443 would reopen the $75,000-$75,200 area that has already appeared in technical work as the next nearby downside zone.
Polymarket Now Gives $75,000 Only a Small Chance Before October Ends
The prediction market has moved sharply as the deadline approaches.
Polymarket’s contract on whether Bitcoin will dip to $75,000 during October was trading around 1%-2% in the latest pull, with the Yes side offered near 1.5 cents. The individual $75,000 outcome had generated about $1.27 million in total volume, while the broader October Bitcoin price market had traded roughly $16.9 million.
Earlier on October 31, the $75,000 contract had recorded $323,792 of 24-hour trading volume.
The low probability is partly a clock trade. Bitcoin is only about 3% above $75,000, but the market has only the final hours of October left in which that price can be touched for the contract to resolve Yes.
The nearby contracts underline how tightly traders are clustering around current prices. Polymarket was pricing a dip to $77,000 on October 31 near 48%, while its weekly market covering October 26 through November 1 put the probability of Bitcoin reaching $78,000 near 69% in one recent snapshot.
The Binance Hack, ETF Outflows and the Fed All Hit October
The final monthly candle compresses several separate shocks.
The most violent came after Binance disclosed a security breach with an estimated $6.3 billion impact. CoinDesk reported that about $1.53 billion of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, with roughly 84% of the forced closures coming from long positions. Bitcoin fell to around $76,460 before recovering toward $78,500.
FinanceFeeds covered the same deleveraging wave when Bitcoin fell below $77,000 as the Binance hack triggered about $1.5 billion in crypto liquidations.
Institutional flows also failed to provide a consistent cushion.
Finalized ETF data through October 30 show U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs with approximately $515.9 million of net outflows for October, compared with about $2.65 billion of inflows in September. October 30 alone produced roughly $643.2 million of redemptions, led by BlackRock’s IBIT at $233.7 million and Fidelity’s FBTC at $201 million.
The macro backdrop turned less friendly as well. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, but both dissents favored a rate increase rather than a cut. The Fed upgraded its description of economic activity from “solid” to “strong,” keeping another tightening move in play.
FinanceFeeds had already flagged that combination before the decision, when Bitcoin fell below $80,000 amid ETF withdrawals and Fed uncertainty.
Then came the wider technology selloff. Concerns about returns on AI infrastructure spending pushed the Nasdaq down more than 3% on October 30, while major semiconductor names sold off sharply. Bitcoin was therefore dealing with crypto-specific stress from Binance at the same time that traditional risk assets were being repriced.
That leaves the October close unusually dependent on a small number of nearby prices.
At roughly $77,400, Bitcoin is already set for a clearly negative month unless there is an unusually large rally before 00:00 UTC. The more immediate question is whether the candle finishes above the $76,443 post-hack reference, regains $79,000, or spends its final hours pulling the $75,000 zone back into play.