Updated 30 October 2026. Spot gold was bid at $3,987.20 an ounce at about 2:43 am ET on Friday, down $33.30 or 0.83 percent, after a $3,985.50-$4,027.30 range (Kitco). That puts gold back below $4,000 and on track for a second straight monthly decline, with traders pricing roughly a 75 percent chance of a December Fed hike (Reuters via FXStreet). Verdict: Thursday’s strong GDP and inflation data are still doing the damage, and the $3,975.23 low from 23 October is now the line that matters. Reference levels: $3,940 below, $4,080 above.
Key facts
- Price: spot gold $3,987.20 bid / $3,989.20 ask at about 2:43 am ET on 30 October, down 0.83 percent, with a session range of $3,985.50 to $4,027.30 (Kitco).
- The month: gold is heading for a second consecutive monthly decline; silver fell 2.1 percent to $51.27, platinum 1.9 percent to $1,458.85 and palladium 2 percent to $986.08, all also on track for monthly losses (Reuters via FXStreet).
- Fed pricing: about 75 percent odds of a December hike (Reuters via FXStreet); Mitrade cites pricing as high as 85 percent. The Fed held at 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent on Wednesday, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a hike.
- Thursday’s data: third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4 percent annualized rate against 3.2 percent expected; September core PCE rose 3.1 percent on the year and headline PCE 3.6 percent (BEA). Weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000 against 198,000 expected (Mitrade).
- The low to watch: spot gold touched $3,975.23 on 23 October, its first move below $4,000 since mid-July (Reuters).
- Oil: Brent’s expiring December contract was up $1.20 at $116.08 early on Friday, on track for a fourth monthly gain (Reuters).
Why gold cannot hold $4,000
Gold pays no interest, so it does worst when the market expects rates to rise, and this week has pushed in exactly that direction. Two Fed officials voted for a hike on Wednesday, then Thursday brought faster growth, firmer inflation and jobless claims under 200,000 for a sixth straight week (Mitrade). Each of those makes a December hike easier to justify, and gold has fallen from about $4,056 before Thursday’s data to just under $3,990.
The usual offsets have not helped. Reuters reported that a weaker dollar and lower bond yields partly cushioned the drop, and Thursday’s tech selloff did not send money into gold either. Jamie Cox of Harris Financial Group linked big tech’s demand for funding to tighter liquidity that has pushed investors toward the dollar rather than gold (via Mitrade). Easing US-Iran diplomacy earlier in the week also reduced safe-haven demand, although oil has since climbed again on new tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz (see our Brent page for Friday).
The levels
On the hourly chart Mitrade marks support at $3,980-$4,000, then $3,932-$3,951 and $3,829-$3,849, with resistance at $4,032-$4,044, $4,074-$4,083 and $4,101-$4,115. Gold broke below its $4,035-$4,060 consolidation range overnight, with the hourly RSI at about 35-40. Our Thursday gold page flagged $4,000 as the line to hold; it has now given way intraday.
Gold into the weekend: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,940 | The 23 October low of $3,975.23 breaks, December hike odds firm further and the monthly close lands well under $4,000. | About 1.2 percent below Friday’s $3,987.20 bid, inside Mitrade’s $3,932-$3,951 support band. |
| Base | $3,975-$4,045 | Gold holds the October low but stays capped while the market prices a December hike. | The 23 October low up to the top of Mitrade’s first resistance band. |
| Bull | $4,080 | Lower Treasury yields and a softer dollar finally feed through, and Middle East risk lifts haven demand. | Mitrade’s $4,074-$4,083 second resistance band, about 2.3 percent above the bid. |
The bear case sits below Friday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quote, not forecasts.
What to watch
- $3,975.23: a break below the 23 October low would open the $3,932-$3,951 band.
- The monthly close: a finish below $4,000 would confirm the second monthly loss at a lower level.
- Fed speakers: any comment on December from Chair Kevin Warsh or the two dissenters.
- Oil and Hormuz: a sharp escalation could revive haven buying, while higher oil also feeds the inflation case for a hike.
Quick take: Gold is at $3,987, down 0.8 percent on Friday and below $4,000, heading for a second monthly loss as traders price about a 75 percent chance of a December Fed hike. Expect $3,975-$4,045; a break of the $3,975 October low opens $3,940, and $4,080 needs yields and the dollar to keep falling.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold was bid at $3,987.20 an ounce at about 2:43 am ET on Friday 30 October 2026, down 0.83 percent, after a $3,985.50-$4,027.30 range (Kitco).
Why is gold falling today?
Strong US GDP, firmer inflation and low jobless claims have raised the odds of a December Fed hike to about 75 percent, which weighs on gold because it pays no interest.
Is gold below $4,000?
Yes. Spot gold traded just under $3,990 early on Friday, above its 23 October low of $3,975.23 (Kitco; Reuters).
Is gold down for the month?
Gold is on track for a second straight monthly decline, and silver, platinum and palladium are also heading for monthly losses (Reuters via FXStreet).
Will the Fed raise rates in December?
Markets price about a 75 percent chance of a December hike (Reuters via FXStreet), with some estimates as high as 85 percent (Mitrade). Two Fed officials voted for an immediate hike on 28 October.
What are the key gold support levels?
Mitrade marks support at $3,980-$4,000, $3,932-$3,951 and $3,829-$3,849, with resistance at $4,032-$4,044 and $4,074-$4,083.
Sources: Kitco (Friday spot price and range, 30 October 2026); Reuters via FXStreet (monthly decline, December hike odds, silver, platinum and palladium); US Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP and PCE, 29 October); Mitrade (jobless claims, Fed pricing, Jamie Cox view, technical levels); Reuters (23 October low, Brent price).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Precious metals prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.