Updated 29 October 2026. Brent crude futures fell about 1 percent to $114.20 a barrel in Asian trade on Thursday, with WTI down 1.4 percent to $101.40, after reports that US Vice President JD Vance wrote to Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei to revive peace talks (Reuters, via HDFC Sky). OilPriceAPI’s spot-basis Brent assessment was $114.00 at 06:41 UTC. Verdict: the market is now pricing two US tracks at once – a letter offering talks and a reported plan for strikes after next Tuesday’s midterms. Neither has resolved, and US GDP and PCE data land at 8:30 am ET. Reference levels: $108 below, $120 above.
Key facts
- Price: Brent futures about $114.20, down 1 percent, and WTI $101.40, down 1.4 percent, on Thursday 29 October in Asian trade (Reuters, via HDFC Sky). OilPriceAPI put spot-basis Brent at $114.00 at 06:41 UTC.
- Wednesday: Brent for December settled up 1.3 percent at $115.32 after a two-day drop, and WTI for December rose 2.9 percent to $102.78 (Bloomberg, via Rigzone). Brent has almost doubled this year.
- Two US tracks: The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed people, that the US told several Gulf nations to be prepared for a short, intense campaign against Iran, and that President Trump was leaning toward a large post-election attack without having decided. Trump told Fox News it is “getting to be decision time” (via Rigzone). Overnight came reports of the Vance letter to Rezaei.
- Mediation: Qatari mediators gave Tehran a draft proposal to end the war; an unnamed Iranian official called it unacceptable and not a formal offer, while Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran was still giving diplomacy a chance (Reuters, via HDFC Sky).
- The Gulf: the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at the kingdom’s eastern region early Thursday. Saudi Arabia has still not confirmed the Houthi claim of a strike on its largest refinery, a 550,000 barrel-per-day plant (Reuters, via HDFC Sky).
- Inventories: US crude stocks fell 1.9 million barrels in the week to 23 October, the fourth straight weekly draw, against a Reuters poll for a rise of about 15,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks rose 3.9 million barrels against an expected draw (EIA, via Rigzone and HDFC Sky).
- Israel: with more than 90 percent of votes counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was edging past opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, but neither had a clear path to forming a government (Bloomberg, via Rigzone).
A letter against a war plan
Wednesday’s 1.3 percent gain came on the Journal’s report of a post-midterm strike campaign; Thursday’s dip came on the Vance letter. That is the same back-and-forth that has kept Brent between about $113 and $117 for a week, as tracked on Wednesday’s Brent page. The difference now is a date: the US midterms are on Tuesday 3 November, and the reported strike planning is tied to the period after them.
Analysts quoted by Bloomberg see traders paying for that risk. “The market is pricing in a larger probability of re-escalation,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING. Tim Skirrow of Energy Aspects Quant Analytics said traders are buying Brent call options, a sign they expect tensions to rise after the elections. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo pointed to sharply lower global inventories, with pledged strategic reserve releases largely completed – which leaves less of a buffer if supply is hit (via Rigzone).
GDP and PCE today
The advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation are due at 8:30 am ET, a day after the Fed held rates in a split vote (Yahoo Finance). With Brent above $110, oil is a direct input to headline inflation; a hot print strengthens the case for higher rates, which weighs on demand expectations at the margin. Our Fed analysis covers what the decision means for December, and our gold coverage tracks the other half of the inflation trade.
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $108 | The Vance letter opens formal talks, Washington signals no post-election strike, and soft GDP data plus a big gasoline build weigh on demand. | About 5.4 percent below Thursday’s $114.20. |
| Base | $111-$118 | Letters and strike reports keep alternating, Houthi claims meet interceptions, and Brent trades headlines into Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting and Tuesday’s midterms. | The past week’s $113 to $117 range, widened by a dollar each side. |
| Bull | $120 | Iran rejects the Vance approach, the reported strike plan firms up, or damage is confirmed at a Saudi facility. | About 5.1 percent above Thursday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Thursday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quote, not forecasts.
What to watch
- Thursday 29 October, 8:30 am ET: third-quarter GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation.
- Tehran: any Iranian response to the Vance letter.
- Friday 30 October: Exxon Mobil and Chevron third-quarter results.
- Sunday 1 November: OPEC+ meeting on December output targets.
- Tuesday 3 November: US midterm elections; Israel’s official results follow on 4 November.
Quick take: Brent eased to about $114.20 on Thursday after a reported letter from JD Vance to Iran’s Mohsen Rezaei, a day after settling at $115.32 on a report of US strike planning for after the midterms. Inventories are tightening, with a fourth straight US crude draw. Expect $111-$118 through GDP, PCE and OPEC+. Formal talks open $108; an Iranian rejection or a firm strike plan opens $120.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude price today?
Brent crude futures traded at about $114.20 a barrel in Asian trade on Thursday 29 October 2026, down about 1 percent (Reuters). OilPriceAPI’s spot-basis assessment was $114.00 at 06:41 UTC.
Why is oil down today?
Reports that US Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei seeking to revive peace talks eased supply fears (Reuters, via HDFC Sky).
Why did oil rise on Wednesday?
The Wall Street Journal reported that the US told Gulf nations to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the midterm elections. Brent settled up 1.3 percent at $115.32 (Bloomberg, via Rigzone).
What is the WTI price today?
WTI traded at about $101.40 a barrel on Thursday morning in Asia, down 1.4 percent, after settling at $102.78 on Wednesday.
Are US oil inventories falling?
Yes. US crude inventories fell 1.9 million barrels in the week to 23 October, the fourth straight weekly draw, while gasoline stocks rose 3.9 million barrels (EIA).
What do analysts say about Brent?
ING’s Warren Patterson said the market is pricing a larger probability of re-escalation, and Energy Aspects’ Tim Skirrow said traders are buying call options that profit from higher prices (Bloomberg).
Sources: Reuters via HDFC Sky (Thursday Brent and WTI futures, Vance letter, Qatari proposal, Gulf interception, EIA poll comparison, 29 October); OilPriceAPI (06:41 UTC spot-basis Brent assessment); Bloomberg via Rigzone (Wednesday settlements, WSJ strike report, Trump remarks, Israeli count, ING, Energy Aspects and UBS views, EIA data, 28 October); Yahoo Finance (Fed decision).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.