Lloyds share price rose for three consecutive days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its outlook for the UK economy and as investors positioned themselves ahead of the upcoming bank earnings season. LLOY climbed to 105.75p, up 6.15% from its lowest level this month. So, will the rally gain momentum or run out of steam?
Lloyds Bank gains as IMF upgrades UK GDP
The British economy is expected to do better than expected, helped by the ongoing artificial intelligence boom. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy will grow by 1.3% this year, up from the previous estimate of 1%.
The IMF noted that the economy is benefiting from the ongoing investments in the AI industry. In June, the government said that over 6 billion pounds worth of new investments were made and created 8,000 new jobs. These investments came from companies like AMD, Nebius, Amazon, and Ark.
The report, however, also admitted that the UK economy was facing some substantial headwinds, including rising government bond yields and inflation. The UK economy also continues to have substantial debt, with the deficit continuing to widen. Later this week, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) will provide more information about the British economy’s performance in August.
Lloyds Bank does well when the UK economy is growing because of its position in the country, where it offers banking solutions to over 26 million customers.
Bank earnings season
Looking ahead, focus will be on the upcoming earnings releases by the biggest banks in the US and Europe. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will be the first ones to release their earnings. Other banks, including regional ones, will publish their earnings after that.
These results will provide hints about the performance of the banking sector in the US, and possibly in the UK. Most notably, top European banks will start releasing their financial results later this month.
Lloyds Bank will publish its earnings report on October 29. Its last report showed that most of its business did well in the first half of the year. Its underlying loans and advances to customers rose by £10.4 billion to £491.5 billion in the first half. Customer deposits soared to £500.9 billion driven by the commercial segment.
Additionally, the company boosted its forward guidance. It expects that the underlying net interest income for the year will be over £14.9 billion, with the return on tangible equity rising to over 16%.
Lloyds share price technical analysis
LLOY stock chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the LLOY stock peaked at 116.90p in August and bottomed at 99.64p last week. A closer look shows that the stock formed an abandoned baby candle on October 8 this year. This pattern is one of the most common bullish reversal patterns in technical analysis.
The stock also bottomed at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Major S/R pivot point of the Murrey Math Lines tool. Therefore, the stock will likely continue rising in the near term. If this happens, the next level to watch will be the ultimate resistance of the Murrey Math Lines tool at 112.50p.
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