Vistra (NYSE: VST) closed at $140.02 on Friday, 2 October 2026, at 4:00 p.m. ET, the last regular-session print on Nasdaq. That close is 33.6% under the $210.85 close on 15 October 2025 in the same daily file. At the 3 August share count of 335,635,195, the common is worth $46.996 billion. Add $19.160 billion of simple net debt from 30 June and enterprise value is $66.156 billion, or 9.19 times the $7.2 billion midpoint of 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance. This is a hedged year at a little over nine times, not the 2025 peak.
The tape is also trading a loan Vistra has not filed. Bloomberg’s Ari Natter and Will Wade reported on 2 October a roughly $4 billion upgrade package, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright expected at Perry as soon as 5 October. A Reuters headline carried by Google News on 3 October, and a TIKR note on it, used about $4.2 billion. Friday’s close rose only $0.27. Nasdaq’s premarket last sale was $148.20 at 5:50 a.m. ET on 5 October, up $8.18, or 5.84%. The bull, base, and bear cases below, $184, $151, and $109, exclude both figures. The filed October event is the 15 October redemption date on the 8% Series A preferred, after $1.50 billion of junior notes settled on 24 September.
Key facts
- Official close: $140.02 on 2 October 2026, 4:00 p.m. ET (Nasdaq). Premarket last sale $148.20 at 5:50 a.m. ET on 5 October, not used in the cases.
- Headline cases, rounded from the bridges below: bull $184, base $151, bear $109. None includes the reported federal loan.
- 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance, reaffirmed 7 August 2026: $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion, excluding Cogentrix and the Meta contracts.
- Hedges as of 3 August 2026: about 100% of expected 2026 generation, 94% of 2027, and 72% of 2028.
- Series A preferred, $1.0 billion at liquidation, first redemption and floating-rate date 15 October 2026. Junior notes of $1.50 billion settled 24 September; net proceeds about $1.48 billion.
- Cogentrix, about 5,500 MW, still expected to close in late 2026 after August FERC approval. The contract values 5 million shares at $185.
- PJM 2028/2029: 10,924.40 MW cleared at $325 per megawatt-day, per the 14 July 2026 Form 8-K.
What is happening
Bloomberg’s sources described two Ohio plants and one in Pennsylvania, with the uprate size unknown, and said neither the Energy Department nor Vistra had commented. TIKR’s Wiltone Asuncion wrote on 5 October that Reuters tied about $4.2 billion to at least three of four stations. No Vistra 8-K follows the 24 September notes closing. Until a term sheet exists, the loan is not an input.
What did close is in the 24 September 8-K, signed by treasurer William M. Quinn. Vistra Operations issued $850 million of 7.000% notes due 2057 and $650 million of 7.250% notes due 2057, guaranteed by Vistra. The prospectus supplement puts net proceeds at about $1.48 billion, including to redeem some or all of the Series A and Series B preferred after the October and December resets. The 10 September term sheet lists expected ratings of Ba2, BB, and BB, each stable. The coupons reset in 2032 and 2037 at the five-year Treasury plus 2.253% and 2.296%, and they cannot reset below 7% and 7.25%.
The 30 June 10-Q lists what those notes can retire. Series A is 1,000,000 shares at 8%, $1,000 liquidation preference, first callable on 15 October 2026, when the coupon floats at the five-year Treasury (floor 1.07%) plus 6.93%. Series B, also 1,000,000 shares at 7%, floats on 15 December 2026 at the five-year Treasury (floor 1.26%) plus 5.74%. Series C, 476,066 shares at 8.875%, waits until 15 January 2029 and is outside the use of proceeds. The three series are the $2.476 billion carrying amount. The 2 October Treasury curve shows a 5.06% five-year yield. That may not be the determination yield. Illustrated on it, Series A resets to 11.99% ($119.9 million a year, against $80 million now) and Series B to 10.80% ($108 million, against $70 million). The step-up is about $77.9 million a year, or $0.23 a share. The new notes cost $106.6 million a year, and about $1.48 billion of proceeds covers roughly three-quarters of the $2.0 billion A and B stack. July’s declared $40 Series A dividend, payable in October, is the old coupon.
Cogentrix can still change the share count. Agreements dated 31 December 2025 cover about 5,500 MW across PJM, ISO New England, and one ERCOT cogeneration plant. Consideration is about $2.3 billion of cash, an estimated $1.5 billion of assumed debt, and 5 million shares at a contract value of $185 ($925 million, versus $700 million at the 2 October close). Cash, debt, and that $185 leg are $4.725 billion, about $859 per kilowatt. FERC approval came in August. Hart-Scott-Rodino was still listed as a condition, with a late-2026 close expected. Lotus, 2,600 MW, already closed on 22 October 2025 and is in the run-rate.
The nuclear contracts state the megawatts. Amazon Web Services takes 1,200 MW from Comanche Peak for 20 years, extendable by up to 20, starting in the fourth quarter of 2027 and full by 2032. Meta takes 2,609 MW: 1,268 MW at Perry and 908 MW at Davis-Besse, plus uprates of 213, 80, and 140 MW at Perry, Davis-Besse, and Beaver Valley, with operating deliveries from late 2026 and uprates from 2031 to 2034. The sum is 3,809 MW. FinanceFeeds has called that block about 4 gigawatts. August guidance excludes Meta, and the 10-Q states no uprate budget.
Hedges as of 3 August cover about 100% of expected 2026 generation, 94% of 2027, and 72% of 2028. The 2027 EBITDA opportunity of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion is not guidance. It uses 31 October 2025 curves and excludes Cogentrix and Meta. On 14 July 2026 the company cleared 10,924.40 MW in the PJM 2028/2029 auction at $325 per megawatt-day. Times 365 days, that is $1.296 billion of gross capacity revenue for the year starting 1 June 2028, not EBITDA and not part of the 2026 guide. Chief financial officer Kristopher E. Moldovan signed the 8-K.
How the company and the street have responded
Jim Burke, president and chief executive, said on the 7 August earnings release: “The formation of Helix Digital Infrastructure, alongside our partners NVIDIA, KKR, and Kuwait Investment Authority, as well as Vistra’s role as Helix’s preferred power provider, create an exciting opportunity for the company.” The 10-Q puts a number on it. In June 2026 Vistra committed up to $1 billion to KKR Helix C L.P., $500 million upfront and $500 million more if milestones are met or if Vistra elects to fund anyway. The stake is equity-method, not consolidated. Burke also said availability was 97% or greater in the Texas and PJM heat, with Cogentrix still pending, two Permian gas units under construction, and solar at Oak Hill 2 and Pulaski. He stated no Permian megawatts.
The release reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $1,767 million, against $1,349 million. GAAP net income was $305 million, including a $472 million unrealized hedge loss the company expects to settle later. Adjusted EBITDA adds the marks back. The quarter split $773 million Retail, $642 million East, $311 million Texas, and $68 million West. First-half adjusted EBITDA of $3,261 million leaves about $3.54 billion to $4.34 billion for the second half if the range holds. Buybacks since November 2021 were about $6.5 billion as of 3 August, with $1.2 billion still authorized through year-end 2027. Liquidity at 30 June was about $6.295 billion, including $435 million of cash.
Street targets sit above this note’s bull case. MarketBeat, retrieved 5 October 2026, showed an average target of $219.33, a high of $298 and a low of $169 from 17 analysts, against a $139.94 price on that page. TIKR the same morning said Siebert Williams Shank’s Gabriele Sorbara had started at Buy with a $202 target, about 44% above $140.02, citing TheFly. This note has not read that model. An earlier comparison with Micron used a richer multiple after the run higher, not the 9.19 times on this close. Vistra said via PR Newswire on 29 September that third-quarter results are due Friday, 6 November 2026, at 10 a.m. ET.
A valuation a reader can recompute
Simple net debt is long-term debt, including current maturities, of $19.595 billion minus $435 million of cash, both at 30 June 2026. Vistra does not label that $19.160 billion “net debt.” The September notes are excluded because cash raised roughly matches principal until it is spent. Preferred is out of the bull and base cases. The bear deducts only Series A and B. Taking out all $2.476 billion of preferred would cost $7.38 a share.
Nasdaq’s 5 October page showed a 52-week range of $132.66 to $217.10. In the daily closes, the high is $210.85 on 15 October 2025 and the low is $134.71 on 19 May 2026.
Base case, $151. At 9.7 times the $7.2 billion midpoint, enterprise value is $69.84 billion. Subtract $19.160 billion and divide by 335,635,195 shares. The result, $150.997, rounds to $151. That is a half-turn above the 9.19 times in the close, with Cogentrix unclosed and preferred not deducted.
Bull case, $184. Eleven times $7.8 billion, the top of the 2027 opportunity range, is an $85.8 billion enterprise value. The range is not guidance, uses 31 October 2025 curves, and excludes Cogentrix and Meta. Subtract $19.160 billion, $2.3 billion of Cogentrix cash, and $1.5 billion of assumed debt. Equity of $62.840 billion on 340,635,195 shares is $184.48, rounded to $184. No Cogentrix EBITDA is added, because the 10-Q states none, and the loan is zero.
Bear case, $109. At 8.5 times the $6.8 billion floor, enterprise value is $57.8 billion. Subtract $19.160 billion and the $2.0 billion Series A and B preference, and leave the share count at 335,635,195 because Cogentrix is assumed not to close. Equity of $36.640 billion is $109.17, rounded to $109. The floor is only 5.6% under the midpoint, and 2026 generation is described as fully hedged, so the hit is the multiple and the preferred, not a cash-flow collapse.
Swapping about $1.48 billion of preferred for the new notes barely changes the claim stack. It is a coupon trade, not the bull case. Street targets from $169 to $298 clear $184 only with a higher multiple, Cogentrix earnings, or the loan. The last two are not sourced here.
| Case | EBITDA used | Multiple | Claims subtracted | Shares (millions) | Unrounded | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $7.8 billion 2027 opportunity high | 11.0x | Net debt $19.160 billion + Cogentrix cash $2.3 billion + assumed debt $1.5 billion | 340.6 | $184.48 | $184 |
| Base | $7.2 billion 2026 midpoint | 9.7x | Net debt $19.160 billion | 335.6 | $151.00 | $151 |
| Bear | $6.8 billion 2026 low | 8.5x | Net debt $19.160 billion + Series A and B $2.0 billion | 335.6 | $109.17 | $109 |
Where the regulatory tension actually sits
FERC approved Cogentrix in August, and the 10 August 10-Q still lists Hart-Scott-Rodino as a condition. A late-2026 close is an expectation, not a clearance, so 5,500 MW is not 2026 EBITDA. On PJM, the $325 price for 2028/2029 is cleared, while the 2027 opportunity range still in use was struck off curves as of 31 October 2025. The $1.296 billion capacity-revenue product is not 2028 EBITDA, and these filings disclose no complaint against the auction.
In Texas the 10-Q shows $86 million posted for Public Utility Commission retail-provider requirements, and a $172 million Texas Energy Fund loan due 18 June 2046. Burke’s summer point was availability of 97% or greater in the ERCOT and PJM heat. The filing also says supply-chain limits have deferred or dropped some solar and battery spending. Oak Hill and Pulaski still carry project debt, including $367 million of bridge loans. That is growth-capex risk, not the hedged 2026 fleet.
The loan headline points at uprates the 10-Q already ties to approvals and engineering. Perry’s license, renewed in July 2025, runs through 2046 for the existing plant, not for 433 MW of Meta uprates. A Department of Energy loan would still need a signature and an 8-K. Separately, revolver net leverage is capped at 5.50 to 1.00 only when revolving use exceeds 35% of commitments. This note’s $19.160 billion divided by $7.2 billion is 2.66 times, which is not that covenant test.
What happens next
On 5 October the regular session will price whatever is said at Perry. A rate, a tenor, and a unit list would be new. The official close stays $140.02 until that session replaces it. These cases ignore the 5:50 a.m. print. On 15 October Series A can be redeemed and its coupon can float. The declared $40 dividend is also payable in October. The company may call some, all, or none. Series B’s date is 15 December, with a 10.80% illustration on the 2 October five-year yield.
Cogentrix is the other late-2026 binary. FERC is done. The antitrust waiting period, as last written, is not. A close adds 5 million shares and makes the bull case’s extra claims real. A slip past year-end takes them out. The remaining $1.2 billion buyback runs through the end of 2027 and cannot also be the Cogentrix check.
On 6 November at 10 a.m. ET the third-quarter report should show whether the second half is on the $3.54 billion to $4.34 billion path and whether Cogentrix and Meta stay outside the range. Meta operating deliveries are due to start in part in late 2026. Amazon at Comanche Peak starts in the fourth quarter of 2027. The uprates are dated 2031 to 2034. Only about 72% of expected 2028 generation was hedged on 3 August, and the PJM capacity dollars above belong to the year starting 1 June 2028. Vistra has been set beside other energy names before. At $140.02 it is already a little over nine times a hedged 2026. The $184 case needs 11 times an opportunity range the company will not call guidance. The $109 case is that guide’s floor if the resetting preferred stays. The loan is not a line in the bridge until it is filed.
This is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell Vistra or any other security. The bull, base, and bear prices are arithmetic from filings, the 2 October 2026 Nasdaq close, and multiples chosen for this note. They are not Vistra targets. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP. Loan figures are from press reports and were not in a Vistra SEC filing reviewed for this article. Preferred coupons using the 2 October Treasury yield are illustrations, not the contractual determination rate.
FAQ
What is the Vistra bull and bear case in this note?
The bull case is $184 a share and the bear case is $109, with a base case at $151. All three start from the $140.02 Nasdaq close on 2 October 2026 and from June balance-sheet debt. They leave out the reported federal nuclear loan. The bull case rounds $184.48. The bear case rounds $109.17. Neither figure is a company target or a broker target.
Has the U.S. government agreed to lend Vistra about $4 billion?
Not in any Vistra filing reviewed for this note. Bloomberg reported on 2 October 2026 that the administration plans to offer a roughly $4 billion loan to upgrade three nuclear plants. A Reuters headline the next day, as indexed by Google News and described by TIKR, used about $4.2 billion. Bloomberg said Vistra and the Energy Department had not immediately commented. The latest Vistra 8-K on EDGAR was the 24 September notes closing.
When can Vistra redeem the Series A preferred?
The 30 June 2026 Form 10-Q lists 15 October 2026 as both the earliest redemption date and the date the Series A dividend rate becomes floating. The rate floats at the five-year Treasury, floored at 1.07%, plus 6.93%. Using the 2 October Treasury yield of 5.06% only as an illustration, that formula is 11.99%. The company can redeem some or all, or none, on or after that date. Series B’s first date is 15 December 2026.
How is the $184 bull case calculated?
Eleven times $7.8 billion, the top of Vistra’s 2027 EBITDA opportunity range, is an enterprise value of $85.8 billion. Subtract $19.160 billion of simple net debt, $2.3 billion of Cogentrix cash, and $1.5 billion of assumed Cogentrix debt. Divide the remaining $62.840 billion by 340.6 million shares, including 5 million issued in the deal. The result is $184.48, rounded to $184. Cogentrix EBITDA and the reported loan are both zero in this math.
What still has to happen before Cogentrix closes?
The 10-Q, filed 10 August 2026, says FERC approval was received in August and that closing is still subject to customary conditions, including the end of the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period. The company expects a late-2026 close. Consideration is about $2.3 billion of cash, assumption of roughly $1.5 billion of debt, and 5 million Vistra shares struck at $185 in the contract. No later 8-K reviewed here announced a closing.
When does Vistra report third-quarter results?
Vistra said on 29 September 2026 that it will report third-quarter 2026 results on Friday, 6 November 2026, on a webcast and call beginning at 10 a.m. ET. That is the first scheduled point at which management can update the $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion EBITDA range, the Cogentrix timetable, or anything it is willing to say about a federal loan. The range, as reaffirmed in August, still excludes Cogentrix and the Meta contracts.