Updated 5 October 2026. Brent crude’s December contract trades near $101.50 a barrel on Monday (TradingEconomics quoted $101.53, down 0.71 percent on 5 October; HDFC Sky reported $101.5, down 0.8 percent), after settling at $102.25 on Friday. WTI is near $90. Verdict: the OPEC+ decision on Sunday changed nothing, and that is the point. Seven producers kept November targets where they were, so the market is trading the two things that did change: the G7’s 100 million barrel reserve release, which adds supply, and a new military offensive in Yemen, which adds risk. Supply is winning by about a dollar. Reference levels are $98 below and $107 above.
Key facts
- Brent December futures settled at $102.25 on Friday 2 October, down $0.06, and WTI settled at $91.11, down $1.76 or 1.9 percent (EnergyNow market report). On Monday 5 October Brent was at $101.53 and WTI at $89.99 (TradingEconomics).
- OPEC+ held November output targets. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman met online on Sunday 4 October and kept November required production unchanged at a combined 31.01 million barrels a day (Nairametrics, citing the group’s statement; CNBC and World Oil carried the same decision).
- The quotas: Saudi Arabia 10.478 million barrels a day, Russia 9.949 million, Iraq 4.431 million, Kuwait 2.676 million, Kazakhstan 1.628 million, Algeria 1.007 million and Oman 841,000 (Nairametrics).
- Next dates: the seven meet again on 1 November; the full ministerial meeting and the monitoring committee are scheduled for 29 November (World Oil, carrying Bloomberg).
- The G7 is releasing 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves over four months, coordinated by the International Energy Agency, with a substantial amount of diesel due within the first 20 days. Spread evenly, that is roughly 830,000 barrels a day (Euronews, 2 October).
- Yemen’s government announced a full-scale offensive against the Houthis on Sunday 4 October, backed by the Saudi-led coalition (Al Jazeera; CNN). The Houthis said they fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and near Khurais; Saudi Arabia has not confirmed any damage (Al Jazeera; HDFC Sky).
- Gulf supply is recovering: Middle East crude exports ran above pre-war levels on four of seven days in late September, and Saudi Aramco cut its November Arab Light price for Asia by $3 a barrel (HDFC Sky, 5 October).
- Which contract: every Brent price here is the December contract. November expired on 30 September.
What OPEC+ decided, and why Brent barely moved
The seven-country group that manages OPEC+ supply month to month agreed on Sunday to leave November’s required production at September’s level, 31.01 million barrels a day in total. It is the second month running the group has paused, according to Xinhua. The next review is on 1 November.
A hold was what the market expected. Reports before the meeting, including one carried by The Moscow Times, had sources saying the targets would stay put. More importantly, the targets are not what limits supply right now. World Oil, carrying Bloomberg’s report, noted that output in major OPEC members “remains significantly below levels pumped before the conflict”. When producers cannot reach the quotas they already have, raising or holding those quotas does not change how many barrels reach the water.
That is why Monday’s first session after the decision opened almost exactly where Friday ended. Gulf News quoted Brent at $102.31 at 8:37am Tokyo time, six cents above Friday’s settlement. The drift down to $101.50 came later, and it came from the supply side of the ledger rather than from the OPEC+ meeting.
The supply story: reserves, Gulf exports and Aramco’s price cut
Three developments are pulling Brent lower, and all three predate the OPEC+ meeting.
First, the reserve release. G7 countries agreed on 2 October to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel over four months through the IEA. French President Emmanuel Macron, whose country holds the G7 presidency, said the release would “begin immediately over four months” (Euronews). The package also includes a pledge not to restrict trade in energy products between partner countries. The release knocked WTI down 1.9 percent on Friday while Brent held above $102 (EnergyNow).
Second, Gulf crude is flowing again. HDFC Sky reported that Middle East exports were above pre-war levels on four of seven days in late September, and that Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu after the East-West Pipeline restarted.
Third, Saudi Aramco is pricing for a better-supplied Asia. It cut the November price of Arab Light for Asian buyers by $3 a barrel, to a $5 discount against the Oman-Dubai benchmark, and cut Arab Medium and Heavy by $5 (HDFC Sky). A producer that expected scarcity would not be discounting.
The risk story: a new front in Yemen
Against that sits the weekend’s military news. Rashad al-Alimi, chairman of Yemen’s Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council, announced in a televised address on Sunday that the armed forces had been ordered to begin a full-scale campaign to retake Houthi-held territory (Al Jazeera). The Saudi-led coalition said it carried out 97 operations on Sunday using aircraft, drones, artillery and missiles.
The oil relevance is geographic. The Houthis seized Mocha port and islands in the Bab el-Mandeb strait in mid-September (Al Jazeera), which put the southern entrance to the Red Sea under their influence while the Strait of Hormuz was already disrupted. The Houthis’ response on Sunday went straight at energy infrastructure: spokesman Yahya Saree claimed ballistic missile and drone attacks on two Aramco facilities, one in Riyadh and one near Khurais. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed damage, and the claim should be read as a claim.
The market’s verdict so far is in the spreads rather than the headline price. The gap between Brent and WTI is above $11 a barrel, which Gulf News attributed to the greater exposure of internationally traded crude to maritime disruption. Seaborne oil is carrying the risk premium; the flat price is not.
Brent scenarios: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent (December) | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | ~$98 | The first G7 diesel barrels arrive on schedule, Gulf exports stay above pre-war levels, and the Houthi claims against Aramco facilities turn out to have caused no outage. | $98.03 is where the December contract settled on 30 September, before China’s fuel export halt lifted it $4.28 the next day. The G7’s roughly 830,000 barrels a day (Euronews) is the supply argument. |
| Base | $100 – $103 | OPEC+ targets unchanged until at least the 1 November review, reserve barrels offsetting the war premium, Yemen fighting stays on land. | Brent has traded between $101.31 and $102.38 across Friday’s settlement and Monday’s session (TradingEconomics; Investing.com historical data). |
| Bull | ~$107 | Confirmed damage to Saudi production or export facilities, or the Yemen offensive closing Bab el-Mandeb to tankers while Hormuz remains disrupted. | $107.29 was the front-month Brent price on 28 September after President Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz offer (TradingEconomics; that was the since-expired November contract). |
The bear level is about 3.5 percent below Monday’s price and the bull level about 5.4 percent above it. These are near-term reference levels taken from prices the market has traded in the past week, not forecasts.
What to watch
- Saudi confirmation or denial on Riyadh and Khurais. An acknowledged hit on Aramco infrastructure is the single headline most likely to move Brent toward the bull level.
- The first 20 days of the G7 release. The statement promised a substantial amount of diesel in that window. Delivery, or delay, will show up in diesel prices before crude.
- Bab el-Mandeb. Whether the offensive reopens the strait or makes transit more dangerous in the short run.
- 1 November. The next OPEC+ review of the seven countries’ targets, followed by the full ministerial meeting on 29 November.
- 31 October. The scheduled end of Russia’s diesel export ban.
Quick take: OPEC+ held November targets at 31.01 million barrels a day, and Brent opened Monday within cents of Friday’s $102.25 settlement. The move to $101.50 is the G7’s 100 million barrels and recovering Gulf exports outweighing a new offensive in Yemen. $98 is the level if reserve barrels keep arriving and the Aramco strike claims prove empty; $107 needs confirmed damage to supply.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude price today?
Brent’s December contract was at $101.53 a barrel on 5 October 2026, down 0.71 percent on the day, according to TradingEconomics. It settled at $102.25 on Friday 2 October.
What did OPEC+ decide for November?
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreed on 4 October to keep November required production unchanged at a combined 31.01 million barrels a day. They meet again on 1 November.
Why did oil fall after OPEC+ kept output unchanged?
The hold was expected and did not change physical supply. Prices slipped because the G7 is releasing 100 million barrels from emergency reserves over four months and Middle East exports have recovered to above pre-war levels on several days, according to HDFC Sky.
How much oil is the G7 releasing?
Up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel over four months, coordinated by the International Energy Agency. That is roughly 830,000 barrels a day if released evenly, with a substantial amount of diesel due in the first 20 days (Euronews).
How does the Yemen offensive affect oil prices?
The Houthis hold positions around the Bab el-Mandeb strait and claimed attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities after the offensive was announced. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed damage. Confirmed damage, or a closure of the strait to tankers, would be the route to higher prices.
Where is WTI trading?
WTI settled at $91.11 on 2 October and was at $89.99 on 5 October (TradingEconomics), leaving the Brent-WTI spread above $11 a barrel.
When is the next OPEC+ meeting?
The seven-country group meets online on 1 November. The full OPEC+ ministerial meeting and the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee are scheduled for 29 November.
Related coverage
- Brent at $102 after China halted fuel exports
- Brent’s November contract expired at $103.50: how the December roll works
- Oil price prediction: the $120 bull case and the $60 bear case
Sources: TradingEconomics (Brent and WTI quotes, 5 October 2026; 28 September price); HDFC Sky (prices, Gulf export recovery, Aramco November pricing, Houthi claims, 5 October 2026); Gulf News (Tokyo-morning Brent quote and Brent-WTI spread, 5 October 2026); EnergyNow (2 October settlements); Nairametrics, CNBC, World Oil carrying Bloomberg, Xinhua and The Moscow Times (OPEC+ decision, quotas and meeting dates, 4-5 October 2026); Euronews (G7 reserve release and Macron statement, 2 October 2026); Al Jazeera and CNN (Yemen offensive, coalition operations and Houthi statements, 4 October 2026); Investing.com (Brent session range).
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Commodity prices move continuously and the figures above were accurate at the time of writing. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before trading.