LQDA stock price prediction starts from the last regular-session print. Liquidia closed at $30.26 on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, down $40.43, or 57.19 percent, from $70.69, on Nasdaq’s historical tape. The U.S. cash session on Thursday, October 1, had not opened, so this article uses that September 30 close. The bull case is $130, the target Andrew Fein at H.C. Wainwright reiterated on August 13, 2026. The bear case is $70, the target Serge Belanger at Needham set on September 30 after cutting it from $110. The range is wide because the notes and the close answer different questions. Fein’s $130 predates the ruling and assumes both approved uses stay on the Yutrepia label. Belanger’s $70, as TipRanks described it, charges a 50 percent royalty on PH-ILD sales and still assumes the drug stays on the market. The $30.26 print prices an order that interrupts the product, not only a royalty on one use.
The patent is a method of use, not the molecule
Yutrepia and United Therapeutics’ Tyvaso DPI are both dry powders of treprostinil. Nebulized Tyvaso is the same molecule in a solution. Treprostinil is an old prostacyclin analogue, so Liquidia did not lose a fight over who invented the drug. It lost, for now, on two claims of a method patent.
U.S. Patent No. 11,826,327 covers a method of improving exercise capacity in PH-ILD by inhaling treprostinil at specific doses. United’s quarterly report says the patent runs until February 2042. On September 30, 2026, Judge Richard G. Andrews in Delaware held that claims 1 and 14 are valid and infringed. Liquidia’s release says those were two of six asserted claims, and that the other four were found invalid. The trial opinion records that Liquidia had already stipulated to infringement of claims 1 and 14. The June 2025 trial was about validity. Andrews said Liquidia had not proved the claims invalid.
That is why a 57 percent drop and a $70 target can both be read out of the same morning’s paper. United’s release says the company believes it is entitled to an order telling the FDA to withdraw the Yutrepia application under 35 U.S.C. § 271(e)(4)(A). The next sentence narrows it. If that order is granted, Yutrepia may leave the U.S. market only until the FDA approves a label that omits PH-ILD. United also wants damages for past infringement, which could include a royalty on past sales. The court gave the parties one week to submit an agreed form of final judgment.
Liquidia said it will ask the FDA to strip PH-ILD off the label itself and will appeal. A remedy, it said, could run from that edit to a broader restriction on supply. No filing splits the second-quarter product sales of $170.4 million between PAH and PH-ILD. Needham’s cut from $110 to $70 is $40 a share, 36 percent. A 50 percent royalty on a trivial slice of sales would not move a target that far, so the note treats the PH-ILD book as large without calling it the whole book. At 89,508,891 shares outstanding on July 29, 2026, the move from $70.69 to $30.26 took about $3.62 billion off the equity. That is the interruption case, priced before the judgment exists.
Key facts
- Nasdaq close on September 30, 2026: $30.26, down $40.43, or 57.19 percent, from $70.69. Open $70.54, high $71.93, low $29.86, volume 22,953,200.
- Bull case $130, Andrew Fein, H.C. Wainwright, August 13, 2026. Bear case $70, Serge Belanger, Needham, September 30, 2026, cut from $110.
- Yutrepia net product sales were $170.4 million in the second quarter and $300.3 million in the first half. Cash was $284.2 million on June 30. The royalty financing carried at $176.1 million.
- Shares outstanding on July 29, 2026: 89,508,891. Equity value is about $2.71 billion at $30.26, $6.27 billion at $70, and $11.64 billion at $130.
- The FDA approved Yutrepia on May 23, 2025, for PAH and PH-ILD. Shipments began in June 2025. Through July 31, 2026, Liquidia reported about 5,900 unique prescriptions and more than 5,000 patients.
- Claims 1 and 14 of the ‘327 patent were held valid and infringed. The other asserted claims were held invalid. A proposed judgment is due within a week of September 30.
- In this Nasdaq year, the lowest close was $21.90 on October 2, 2025, and the highest trade was $93.61 on August 11, 2026. The $130 line is above every print in the series.
What Liquidia actually sells
Liquidia sits at 419 Davis Drive, Suite 100, Morrisville, North Carolina. The photograph on this article is not that building and it is not Yutrepia. It shows three dry-powder inhalers of the device class, a Turbuhaler, an Accuhaler, and an Ellipta. Yutrepia is its own palm-sized dry-powder inhaler. The picture is the class of device, nothing more.
PAH is high blood pressure in the lung’s arteries. PH-ILD is the same pressure on top of scarred lung tissue. Tyvaso is nebulized treprostinil. Tyvaso DPI and Yutrepia are dry powders, a few breaths instead of a nebulizer session. The fight is convenience and dose, not a new biological target.
The June 30, 2026 quarterly report says PRINT, Liquidia’s particle platform, is meant to push drug deeper into the lung and to support higher doses than the labeled doses of the other inhaled treprostinil products. The FDA approved Yutrepia on May 23, 2025, for both indications. U.S. shipments started in June 2025. By the second quarter of 2026 the launch was the income statement.
The August 12 earnings release puts second-quarter Yutrepia net product sales at $170.4 million, up 31 percent from the first quarter. The income statement shows product sales of $170.382 million in the quarter and $300.263 million in the half, so the first quarter was $129.881 million. Total revenue was $171.679 million. Service revenue was $1.297 million, mostly a Sandoz promotion agreement on a generic treprostinil injection. Product sales were 99 percent of the quarter.
Cost of product sales was $10.759 million, a product gross margin of about 93.7 percent. Operating income was $85.517 million. Net income was $74.722 million, $0.84 basic and $0.74 diluted. Adjusted EBITDA, the company’s non-GAAP figure, was $96.3 million. Cash was $284.181 million, up from $190.680 million at year-end 2025. Receivables were $108.584 million, about eight weeks of the quarter’s product sales still uncollected.
Roger Jeffs, the chief executive, said in that August release: “We are pleased by the sustained adoption of YUTREPIA as the inhaled prostacyclin of choice. The inhaled category has grown almost 40% since launch, and YUTREPIA has captured an ever-increasing share of that growth.” From launch through July 31, 2026, the company counted about 5,900 unique prescriptions and more than 5,000 patients. The profit is why a sales multiple meant something in August, and why September 30 turned on whether that profit is PAH, PH-ILD, or both.
L606, a twice-daily nebulized liposomal treprostinil, is in a pivotal PH-ILD study and is not approved. It is not inside either price.
What the two companies said on September 30
Jeffs’ statement in the September 30 Form 8-K exhibit is the legal position in three sentences. “We respectfully disagree with the Court’s decision regarding claims 1 and 14 and are fully prepared to pursue all available appellate options. As previously communicated to the Court, we intend to submit a supplement to YUTREPIA’s New Drug Application to the FDA to remove PH-ILD from the label. Our commitment to patients remains unwavering.” He is not claiming the PAH use was held to infringe. He is offering to delete the use the surviving claims describe, and he is keeping the appeal.
Michael Benkowitz, president and chief operating officer of United Therapeutics, answered the same morning. “We are pleased with the Court’s decision, which reinforces our significant research and commitment to bring innovative therapies to the patients we serve. Our immediate priority is ensuring that no patient goes without the therapy they need, and we are ready to support a seamless transition to Tyvaso or Tyvaso DPI should PH-ILD be removed from the Yutrepia label.” Martine Rothblatt is United’s chief executive. Benkowitz is the executive who spoke. The transition offer assumes PH-ILD patients move and PAH patients are a separate question. The same release still asks for the withdrawal order, with the drug able to return once the label omits PH-ILD, plus damages that could include a royalty on past sales.
Reuters reported that the court also denied Liquidia’s motion to strike evidence on patent ownership. Ryan Deschner at Raymond James told Reuters: “This is a key element of the case for Liquidia, and denial of the motion to strike has negative readthrough to the final decision on the case.” Reuters put United Therapeutics up 12.3 percent at $540.54. Nasdaq shows Liquidia opening at $70.54, reaching $71.93, falling to $29.86, and closing at $30.26 on 22,953,200 shares, about 26 percent of the shares outstanding. This is a specialist name. That volume was the docket.
The arithmetic behind $130 and $70
The bull and bear cases are published targets. The table converts them with the July 29 share count, subtracts net cash from the June 30 balance sheet, and divides by four times second-quarter product sales. Four times one quarter is a run-rate, not a forecast. If PH-ILD is a large share of the $170.382 million and that use comes off, the denominator shrinks and every multiple rises.
Shares: 89,508,891. Cash: $284.181 million. HealthCare Royalty carrying value: $53.952 million current plus $122.153 million long-term, or $176.105 million. Net cash: $108.076 million. The footnote’s fair value is $211.5 million, which would lower net cash. The table uses the carrying value on the balance sheet. The loan is a January 9, 2023 revenue-interest agreement, with a $15 million minimum-cash covenant and payments the company expects to run into 2033.
Product sales of $170.382 million times four equal $681.528 million. Enterprise value is equity value minus $108.076 million.
| Case | Source | Price | Equity value | Enterprise value | EV / $681.5 million run-rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close | Nasdaq, September 30, 2026 | $30.26 | $2.709 billion | $2.600 billion | 3.82x |
| Bear | Serge Belanger, Needham, September 30, 2026, cut from $110 | $70 | $6.266 billion | $6.158 billion | 9.03x |
| Bull | Andrew Fein, H.C. Wainwright, August 13, 2026, reiterated | $130 | $11.636 billion | $11.528 billion | 16.92x |
Multiply 89,508,891 by the price: $2,708,539,042 at $30.26, $6,265,622,370 at $70, and $11,636,155,830 at $130. Subtract $108,076,000 and divide by $681,528,000. That is 3.82 times sales at the close, 9.03 times at $70, and 16.92 times at $130. The prior close of $70.69 was $6,327,383,505 of equity, so the session removed about $3,618,844,463. At 3.82 times, the market is not treating $681.5 million as a durable base. The $130 bull case stays only as the unrevised August high.
Other targets on public ratings logs were not rewritten for the ruling: Wells Fargo at $108 on September 9, Bank of America at $92 and BTIG at $111 on August 13, and Jefferies at $60 on May 11. A FactSet range circulated on October 1 ran from $40 to $130, with the $40 not named. It is not the bear case. TipRanks’ account of Belanger’s cut is the named target reset that day.
The diluted share count is a trap. Basic shares were 89,099,459 on June 30 and 89,508,891 on July 29. Diluted weighted-average shares in the quarter were 101,397,028, against a basic weighted average of 88,887,744, which is why earnings were $0.84 basic and $0.74 diluted. That diluted count was computed while the stock traded near $70. At $30.26 many option strikes are out of the money. The $2.71 billion figure uses the July basic count. The $70 and $130 targets are prices per share. This is not investment advice.
The order that has not been written
Section 271(e)(4)(A) is the remedy United is pointing at. In a Hatch-Waxman case, a finding of infringement points the judge toward an order that FDA approval is not effective before the patent expires. United reads that as a withdrawal of the Yutrepia application, and then says the practical result may be a gap until the agency approves a label without PH-ILD. Liquidia reads the same statute as a range, from the label edit it says it will request to a restriction on supply. Both descriptions stand only until the judgment picks one. The one-week clock from September 30 puts that paper on or about October 7. The opinion did not award the remedy. It told the parties to propose one.
Damages are separate. United said they could include a royalty on past sales. First-half product sales were $300.3 million. A royalty on that book is cash. It is not the loss of the PAH label. Cash on June 30 was $284.2 million, against debt carried at $176.1 million. The 8-K says the range cannot yet be estimated.
The ‘327 case is not the only case. The June quarterly report describes a separate suit in the Middle District of North Carolina on U.S. Patent No. 11,357,782. A preliminary injunction was denied in May 2025. As of that August filing the case was still pending, and United was seeking an injunction that would take Yutrepia off the market entirely. That is a different patent. It does not belong inside the September 30 holding. It does mean a reader of the Delaware opinion alone can still be wrong about the floor.
What has to happen before either target means anything
First, the judgment will show whether the remedy is a PH-ILD carve-out or a stretch with no Yutrepia on the market. The surviving claims are PH-ILD method claims. Liquidia has said it will file the supplement that deletes that use. United has said a withdrawal, if granted, lasts until the FDA approves a label without it. If the order follows that script, PAH sales inside the $170.4 million quarter are interrupted, not cancelled, and $70 can sit above $30.26. A wider order makes $70 the stale figure.
Second, damages are not the label. United said it may seek a royalty on past sales, and first-half product sales were $300.3 million. A royalty on that book is cash. It does not delete the PAH use. The judgment has to separate the two before the $70 case can be checked.
Third, the appeal will not put the $3.62 billion back by itself. More than 5,000 patients had been treated by July 31, and the second quarter grew 31 percent from the first. They do not vanish because a notice of appeal is filed. They vanish if physicians stop starting them. The next earnings report is that test. Calendars have pointed at early November. The company had not set that date in the documents used here. The dated court event is the judgment, about a week after September 30. If starts hold, $2.71 billion is about four times the run-rate and the gap to $70 reopens. If starts stop, the close was the figure that fit the business.
FinanceFeeds has framed other drugmaker shares the same way, including a Novo Nordisk stock prediction and a Moderna stock prediction. They are not comps for inhaled treprostinil. One headline can reprice a biotech stock in a session, as the Moderna cancer-vaccine move did on the way up and September 30 did for Liquidia on the way down.
Frequently asked questions
What is the LQDA stock price prediction?
The LQDA stock price prediction in this piece is a bull case of $130 and a bear case of $70, set against Liquidia’s $30.26 Nasdaq close on September 30, 2026. The $130 figure is the target Andrew Fein at H.C. Wainwright reiterated on August 13, 2026. The $70 figure is the target Serge Belanger at Needham set on September 30, 2026, after cutting it from $110. Neither number is a promise that the shares will trade there.
Why did LQDA stock fall on September 30, 2026?
LQDA fell from $70.69 to $30.26, a loss of $40.43 or 57.19 percent, after a Delaware court held that claims 1 and 14 of United Therapeutics’ ‘327 patent are valid and infringed by Yutrepia’s PH-ILD use. The other asserted claims were found invalid. The remedy was not decided in the opinion. Volume was 22,953,200 shares, about a quarter of the shares outstanding. Traders priced a restriction on the product, not a routine down day.
Why is the bull case $130 and the bear case $70?
The $130 bull case is H.C. Wainwright’s August 13, 2026 target, written before the ruling. The $70 bear case is Needham’s September 30 target. TipRanks reported that Serge Belanger kept a Buy and cut the prior $110 figure to reflect a 50 percent royalty on PH-ILD revenue, while still treating Yutrepia as a drug that stays on the market. The $30.26 close sits below that bear case because the session priced a harsher remedy than a royalty.
Is Yutrepia the same medicine as Tyvaso?
Yutrepia and Tyvaso both deliver inhaled treprostinil. Tyvaso is United Therapeutics’ nebulized solution, and Tyvaso DPI is its dry powder. Yutrepia is Liquidia’s dry powder, made with PRINT particle engineering and approved by the FDA on May 23, 2025, for PAH and PH-ILD. The ‘327 patent is not a patent on the molecule. It covers a method of treating PH-ILD by inhaling treprostinil at set doses, which is why the label line is what the court decided.
Who is Liquidia’s chief executive?
Roger Jeffs is chief executive of Liquidia. On September 30, 2026, he said the company disagrees with the ruling on claims 1 and 14, is prepared to appeal, and intends to ask the FDA to remove PH-ILD from the Yutrepia label. Michael Kaseta is chief operating officer and chief financial officer. United Therapeutics’ chief executive is Martine Rothblatt. Michael Benkowitz, president and chief operating officer, is the United executive who spoke on the ruling.
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