Apple (AAPL) has spent years dealing with a frustrating smartphone trend.
People hold on to phones longer.
That often means less chance to upgrade. But Apple may be arriving at something that turns that same behavior to its advantage.
Evercore ISI’s survey of nearly 4,000 U.S. consumers found that 67% said the age of their current iPhone was their top reason to upgrade, compared with 48% in the prior year’s survey, MacRumors reported.
More importantly, those consumers don’t necessarily want cheaper replacements. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max together represented 53% of intended purchases, while the Pro Max alone drew 32% of potential buyers, up from 29% a year ago.
Evercore says higher prices and demand for premium models and larger storage configurations could lift Apple’s average iPhone selling price by about 28%, InsiderMonkey noted.
Although those are purchasing intentions rather than completed sales, Apple’s own financial filings show something important: Premium iPhones were already driving growth before the iPhone 18 cycle began.
Apple’s aging iPhone base could become a powerful upgrade catalyst
Apple’s latest financial results give the Evercore survey more weight.
During Apple’s fiscal third quarter ended June 27, iPhone revenue jumped 22% year over year to $54.25 billion, from $44.58 billion.
For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, iPhone revenue reached $196.52 billion, also up 22%.
Apple explicitly said the increase during both periods was driven primarily by higher sales of Pro models.
This isn’t a one-quarter thing.
Apple’s iPhone revenue for fiscal 2025 was $209.59 billion, up 4% from $201.18 billion a year earlier. The boost was again driven by higher net sales of its Pro models, Apple said.
This provides an important backdrop for Evercore’s latest findings.
Apple already had a knack for nudging customers toward premium iPhones. Now the survey suggests that a bigger chunk of the installed base may also feel their existing hardware has just gotten too old to keep.
Thus, longer replacement cycles have two effects. When customers delay upgrading, revenue is delayed. This also fosters an increasing population of people using devices that are several generations behind Apple’s latest hardware.
A customer moving up from a four- or five-year-old iPhone sees a much larger jump in cameras, battery life, performance, and AI capability than someone upgrading yearly.
And once that customer finally decides to replace the device, Apple has another opportunity: convince them that something they’re going to keep for years is worth paying more for.
Apple is giving buyers more ways to spend up
Apple has room to push customers higher with the iPhone 18 series.
The iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199, while the Pro Max begins at $1,299. Both are available with as much as 2TB of storage, creating another path toward substantially more expensive configurations.
Apple says customers who trade in an iPhone 13 or newer can receive between $175 and $885 in credit, and some carrier promotions can provide up to $1,200 toward an iPhone 18 Pro or Pro Max with an eligible trade-in.
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Such incentives can make a costly device appear much more affordable at the point of sale.
The hardware itself also gives Apple a stronger case for customers who have been waiting several generations.
The Apple A20 Pro chip is based on the 2-nanometer process and powers the iPhone 18 Pro. The GPU is said to deliver up to 40% better performance than the previous generation, while the dual 16-core Neural Engine doubles AI processing power over A19 Pro, Apple said.
Apple also improved battery life significantly, with the Pro Max now offering up to 45 hours of video playback in Apple’s testing method.
The upgrades matter more to the upgrade-cycle story than another annual spec comparison might suggest.
Apple doesn’t make every iPhone 17 Pro owner buy an iPhone 18 Pro.
It takes older iPhone owners to look at what has accumulated over several product generations and decide they have finally waited long enough.
Apple is also changing how customers absorb those prices.
Its U.S. Apple Upgrade program offers iPhone 18 Pro leases starting at $34.99 per month for 24 months. The foldable iPhone Duo starts at $57.99 per month under the same 24-month structure.
That matters when discussing willingness to spend.
A consumer may react differently to a four-figure sticker price than to a monthly payment spread across two years.
Apple’s foldable iPhone faces a different challenge
One feature of the new slate has yet to inspire the same level of enthusiasm expressed in the survey.
Evercore found that 14% of those polled wanted the foldable iPhone Duo, Insider Monkey noted. That’s behind the combined preference for Apple’s Pro models at 53%.
The result isn’t necessarily a letdown.
Related: Bank of America flags surprising iPhone 18 pre-order trend
The Duo marks Apple’s first foray into a significantly different smartphone form factor and arrives after the iPhone 18 Pro family.
Apple says the Duo opens to reveal a 7.6-inch inner display, while its 5.4-inch outer display retains 90% of the screen area of an iPhone 18 Pro when the device is closed. It will come with storage capacities ranging from 256GB to 2TB. Apple Inc.
Preorders start Oct. 16, with availability in the first batch of markets beginning Oct. 23.
This puts Apple in an awkward position. The Duo must not only poach customers from Samsung and other foldable-phone makers, but also contend with the very popular iPhone Pro family sitting right beside it.
If you’re willing to spend big on a smartphone, the iPhone 18 Pro Max might offer enough camera, battery, and performance upgrades without having to switch to an unfamiliar folding format.
This means the 14% Duo interest rate is particularly interesting.
The foldable doesn’t have to push the Pro Max out of its way to matter financially. Pro models will still account for most of the volume, but they can create a whole new tier above Apple’s existing premium phones.
Apple’s upgrade cycle could spread beyond the iPhone
Evercore says there may be another silver lining: Those considering an iPhone upgrade may also be eyeing other Apple hardware.
The survey found that 38 percent of those surveyed planned to buy an Apple Watch, AppleInsider noted, while 43 percent planned to buy AirPods. Both figures were higher than in the last survey.
And Apple has conveniently updated both categories along with the iPhone.
The Apple Watch Series 12 begins at $399 and includes a new Health Sensing System, heart-rate measurements at a higher frequency, and a readiness score, as well as deeper Apple Intelligence integration.
Apple also announced AirPods 5 starting at $129 and a $149 model that adds a wireless charging case. Apple says the new generation offers improved active noise cancellation, Siri AI integration, and live translation capabilities.
That’s where Apple’s installed-base advantage becomes even more valuable.
An iPhone that is approaching replacement age is not necessarily a single hardware transaction. It can introduce a customer into an Apple Store where they are evaluating a phone, watch, earbuds, services, and accessories simultaneously.
In this way, the upgrade cycle can lead to a customer transaction far larger than the headline iPhone price might indicate.
Apple stock may not need a massive unit boom
Evercore said its survey shows stronger fiscal 2027 revenue growth than the approximately 7% analysts expect, Investing.com confirmed.
The important thing is not just that more people might buy iPhones. It is the specific iPhones they might buy.
Apple’s latest SEC filing was already pointing to the financial strength of premiumization.
Third-quarter iPhone revenue grew 22%, and Apple attributed the improvement primarily to higher sales of Pro devices. Total company revenue reached $109.42 billion, up 16% year over year, while net income increased to $29.79 billion from $23.43 billion.
The Evercore survey suggests the iPhone 18 cycle may reinforce this dynamic. Devices age and require replacement. Pro models get more customers. Larger storage configurations cost more. Trade-ins, carrier promotions, and monthly financing help absorb higher prices. Some customers add AirPods or an Apple Watch simultaneously.
There is still an important caveat.
People may say in a survey that they plan to buy an expensive device and then change their minds when it comes time to pay. The results also reflect nearly 4,000 U.S. consumers, not Apple’s worldwide customer population.
So don’t mistake a forecast of average selling prices that are some 28% higher with Apple’s own guidance.
Apple’s filings, however, offer independent evidence for the key premise behind the Evercore argument: Customers were already moving toward Apple’s Pro phones before the iPhone 18 arrived.
What may be changing is the number of consumers who ultimately need a replacement.
Longer iPhone ownership once seemed like a mere obstacle to Apple’s growth.
Yet if aging devices continue to push customers back into the market, and those customers disproportionately buy premium models, Apple’s biggest upgrade-cycle weakness could become one of its most valuable advantages.
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