Two of the organizations that track Social Security benefits most closely just moved their 2027 COLA estimates in opposite directions. One went up. One went down. The one that went up is AARP, reaching 3.6%.
AARP raised its 2027 cost-of-living adjustment estimate from 3.5% to 3.6% after August inflation data came in slightly hotter than economists expected, according to AARP. At 3.6%, a benefit increase would be the largest annual Social Security adjustment since 2023. The official figure will be announced Oct. 14.
What AARP is projecting for the 2027 COLA
The average retired worker received $2,086 a month in Social Security benefits as of July, according to AARP. A 3.6% adjustment would add about $75 to that average monthly payment, bringing it to roughly $2,161 at the start of 2027.
Your specific increase depends on what you currently collect. A $1,500 monthly benefit gains about $54 at 3.6%. A $2,500 benefit gains about $90. The percentage applies equally to everyone. The dollar amount scales with your payment.
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AARP’s projection is based on the CPI-W, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, which is the specific inflation measure the Social Security Administration uses to set the annual COLA.
The CPI-W rose 3.5% year over year in August 2026. That reading, combined with July data already in the books, is what pushed AARP’s estimate from 3.5% to 3.6%.
Why the two forecasts are moving in different directions
The Senior Citizens League just moved its estimate the other way. After sitting at 3.6% last month, it pulled its 2027 COLA forecast down to 3.5% after reviewing the same August data. AARP went up. TSCL went down. Both are looking at the same numbers and reading them slightly differently.
The gap comes down to how each organization weights and projects the September inflation reading, which has not come out yet. September CPI data lands on Oct. 14, the same morning the Social Security Administration announces the official COLA.
September is the final input in a three-month average of July, August, and September CPI-W readings. One month left, and the two leading advocacy groups are one-tenth of a percentage point apart.
Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League, put the situation plainly. “No matter if the COLA announcement comes in slightly higher or slightly lower than our prediction, seniors will probably end up disappointed in the long run,” she told CBS News.
Why a bigger COLA may still leave seniors behind
The 2026 COLA came in at 2.8%. Inflation has run above that level every month in 2026 except January and February, as TheStreet reported. Seniors who relied on the 2026 adjustment to keep pace with prices have been falling behind for most of the year. A 3.6% COLA in 2027 helps, but it does not erase the gap that built up in 2026.
The COLA is also calculated using CPI-W, which tracks spending patterns for workers, not retirees. Older Americans spend more on healthcare, housing, utilities, and prescription drugs than the average wage earner.
Because those categories often rise faster than the overall index, even a COLA that matches general inflation may fall short of what retirees actually need to maintain their purchasing power.
Energy prices add another complication. August inflation data does not yet reflect the recent surge in diesel and gasoline prices.
Diesel topped $6 per gallon this week, a record high. Higher diesel costs raise expenses for trucking, farming, and distribution, which businesses tend to pass on to consumers. If those costs work through the economy before September’s CPI data is collected, the final COLA reading could shift again.
What to watch before Oct. 14
The September CPI-W report is the last piece of the puzzle. It covers price changes in September 2026 compared to September 2025 and is the third and final month that feeds into the COLA formula.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September data on Oct. 14. The Social Security Administration announces the official 2027 COLA the same day.
Watch energy prices between now and the end of September. Gasoline and diesel are the most volatile inputs left in the calculation. A spike before month-end could push the final COLA above AARP’s 3.6% estimate. A pullback could bring it back toward 3.5%.
Also watch for the Medicare Part B premium announcement, which typically comes in November. Part B premiums are automatically deducted from Social Security checks for most beneficiaries.
If the premium rises in 2027, some of your COLA will be absorbed before it shows up in your bank account. The Trustees’ most recent estimate projects Part B rising by $6.60 a month to $209.50 in 2027. The final number could be higher.
Do not budget around 3.6% until Oct. 14. The September data could move it either way, and AARP and TSCL are already a step apart on where it lands.
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