If you’re expecting to fill up a gas tank or a truck with diesel fuel in the next few days, don’t be surprised that prices are higher.
Wholesalers in the United States and elsewhere have been telling customers they’re raising prices to retail outlets, according to a tweet from Patrick De Haan, chief oil analyst at GasBuddy.com.
It’s not just diesel. though. His projections, as of Sept. 10, were 8 to 15 cents a gallon for gasoline and 24 cents to 27 cents a gallon for diesel.
Related: Oil markets look calm on top, but underneath shows a big toll
And there’s little chance for relief anytime soon, given escalations in the Middle East and Ukraine.
That’s not good news for anyone: not consumers filling up tanks, not businesses shipping products to stores, or politicians campaigning for office this fall, given the strain on everyday voters.
Diesel sets record nobody wanted
Diesel hit an unwelcome level this past week, setting a U.S. national record of $6.055 a gallon on Sept. 11. The price of diesel is up 62% in 2026, according to data from both GasBuddy and AAA Fuel Prices.
The significance of $6-a-gallon diesel is its reach, GasBuddy said. It’s “the fuel that moves the economy, powering the freight trucks, trains, agricultural equipment, and construction machinery behind nearly everything Americans buy.”
In dollars and cents, it comes down to this for a trucker or farmer. The price of diesel averaged $2.839 per gallon on Dec. 31, according to AAA data.
The price is now $6.0556 a gallon.
If you paid the national average of $425 for 150 gallons of diesel for your truck or tractor at the end of 2025, the cost, as of Sept. 11, is $908.
Think that’s bad? Those same gallons in California, where diesel is averaging $7.9827 a gallon, will cost $1,197, up 55% from a year ago.
Oil markets, supplies: No relief in sight
What GasBuddy’s de Haan didn’t say (but probably would not disagree) was that supplies may be squeezed well into 2027. That’s according to energy analysts at S&P Global.
In fact, for the first time since the US-Iran war began on Feb. 28, S&P Global “no longer expects Middle Eastern crude production to recover to prewar levels by year-end 2027.”
Not a cheerful thought, to be sure, but look at the conflicts:
- The Middle East — the U.S.-Israel War against Iran and the battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has cut the number of oil tankers passing out of the Persian Gulf from 90-to-100 ships a day to around 5, according to a report from Al Jazeera, the Middle East news service. And there’s little evidence that anyone is interested in a settlement.
- The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. Increasingly, this war is using drone attacks, enabling Ukraine’s success against Russia’s oil infrastructure.
Energy markets dipped a little on Sept. 11, if only because prices had moved so high and so fast during the week that profit-taking was inevitable. When the dip arrived, it set off a huge rally in stocks. But it’s not clear that stocks will move higher with the fundamental conflicts showing few signs of resolution.
Not only is there the general war, but Houthi rebels in Yemen and militants in Iraq are now players in the fight.
Also read: S&P 500’s greatest risk is fast becoming reality
Houthi forces have seized two towns along the Red Sea. They have also seized Perim Island, located in the mouth of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, at the south end of Red Sea, the BBC reported.
On Sept. 11, Saudi Arabia was forced to shut down its Red Sea pipeline operation after repeated drone attacks from Iraqi militants. The pipeline was capable of carrying up to 7 million barrels of oil from the primary Saudi fields along the Persian Gulf, The Wall Street Journal said.
The worry now is that all of Saudi production will be disrupted. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country’s ruler, has been asking President Donald Trump for U.S. help in the fight against the Houthis, CBS News has reported.
Ukraine-Russia war is just as important
Ukraine and Russia have been at war basically since 2014, but the violence exploded when Russia launched a full-scale invasion in 2022.
Ukraine has fought off Vladimir Putin with stealthy drone attacks on Russian naval ships. Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and infrastructure seem to be the most effective moves, though. A Sept. 9 attack on gas processing facilities in northern Siberia was 1,800 miles from the Ukraine-Russia border.
The drone attacks have cut Russian oil production by about 30%. More importantly, Russia had been a major exporter of diesel fuel to Western Europe. The Ukrainian attacks have halted the exports.
More Oil & Gas:
- Is Trump’s big splashy oil deal in Venezuela real?
- Goldman Sachs doubles down on oil price forecast for 2026
- Oil and Yields Drive Equity Losses for a Fourth Session
U.S. oil and gasoline continue to challenge
GasBuddy’s U.S. average price of gasoline was $4.30 per gallon on Sept. 11, up 52% in 2026. The price is up 5.6% in the first 11 days of September and 17 cents in the last week.
AAA’s price was $4.295 a gallon, up nearly 15 cents for the week, and 51% for the year.
Light sweet crude, the U.S. benchmark, closed at $100.25 per 42-gallon barrel, off 2.4% from a day earlier’s $102.48, according to Wall Street Journal data. The final price, however, was up from its low of $98.48, and the change for the week was a gain of about 4%.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled down 2.8% to $104.61 a barrel. But it was up 8.6% for the week.
For the year, light sweet crude is up about 74% and Brent is up 72%.
Despite the oil-price decline on Sept. 11, oil stocks were mostly higher, led by Shell (SHEL) and Chevron (CVX).
Related: Morgan Stanley warns of possible stock market correction