Shake Shack (SHAK) has had a rough 2026, and the stock now sits about 19% lower for the year.
However, a Wall Street firm thinks that decline has gone far enough.
On Sept. 8, 2026, RBC Capital Markets started coverage of the burger chain with an Outperform rating and an $89 price target.
That target points to roughly 28% upside from where shares closed the prior Friday.
Several brokers have cut their Shake Shack targets after a broad guidance reset earlier this year.
Why RBC thinks Shake Shack shares can recover
RBC analyst Logan Reich, who covers the consumer cyclical sector for the firm, believes SHAK has reached a turning point after a long slide from its July 2025 highs.
His call rests on two operating changes that he expects to lift results in 2027, at least.
The first is marketing.
Reich said stronger marketing should push same-store sales growth higher, and RBC models 3.1% growth in 2027 against Wall Street’s consensus of 2.2%.
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The second is cost.
Reich expects lower beef prices to improve margins in 2027 and 2028, since beef is one of Shake Shack’s largest expenses.
Shake Shack makes its money by selling burgers, fries, and shakes at company-operated locations. It also makes money by collecting fees from licensed shops, so beef costs and customer traffic move its profits directly.
What Starboard’s stake means for Shake Shack investors
Shake Shack got backing from an activist investor this summer.
Starboard Value, the hedge fund run by Jeff Smith, disclosed a several hundred million dollar position in the company, Barron’s reported.
Activist investors often push company management to control spending, and protect free cash flow. For shareholders, that pressure can act as a check on how freely management spends.
Reich also flagged a management change that could help.
Related: After closing 39 locations, 76-year-old Mexican chain has 1 left
He noted that a new finance chief who drops quarterly guidance and sets more conservative targets could produce steadier earnings beats.
That view aligns with the company’s stronger second quarter, when Shake Shack reported adjusted earnings of $0.43 a share and beat expectations of $0.33.
Why the valuation still carries real risk
Shake Shack shares recently traded near $67 with a price-to-earnings ratio above 70.
That tells you the market still prices Shake Shack like a fast-growing company.
RBC values Shake Shack at about 11 times its expected 2027 earnings. That’s before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, which is near a historical low.
If consumers cut back on eating out or food costs climb again, a premium name like Shake Shack feels the impact on margins quickly.
Analysts remain divided. Of the 15 analysts who cover the stock, 6 rate it a Buy.
What Shake Shack investors should watch next
RBC’s $89 target gives growth-focused investors a clear bull case. However, a few things need to hold for the call to work:
Key factors that support RBC’s Shake Shack call
- Same-store sales stay on the higher track RBC expects into 2027.
- Beef prices hold near current levels so margins can widen.
- Starboard’s pressure keeps spending disciplined and free cash flow strong.
- Conservative guidance produces steady quarterly beats.
If those factors hold, the recent drop could be a reasonable entry point for investors who can handle sharp price swings.
If they slip, the high valuation is the first thing likely to take the hit.
Related: Mexican restaurant chain closes all locations in major market