Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 before climbing toward $300,000 at the peak of its next market cycle in 2029, as the brokerage argues that a global “debasement trade” could become an increasingly important driver of cryptocurrency demand. Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani laid out the forecasts in a note to clients Wednesday, maintaining a longer-term target of approximately $1 million per Bitcoin by the end of 2033. The base case calls for Bitcoin to recover toward $125,000 by the end of 2026, reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and ultimately peak around $300,000 in 2029.
Bernstein also outlined a substantially more bullish scenario. If institutional investors aggressively increase Bitcoin allocations as concerns over currency debasement grow, the firm sees BTC reaching approximately $200,000 by mid-2027 and potentially $500,000 in 2029. The forecasts come after Bitcoin rebounded roughly 28% over 10 days following a drawdown of approximately 50% from its October 2025 peak.
Bernstein Sees Bitcoin Emerging as a ‘Debasement Trade’
Bernstein’s thesis extends beyond Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle. The firm argues that the roughly four-decade period of structurally declining interest rates has ended, leaving governments facing significantly higher debt-servicing expenses at a time when sovereign borrowing has reached unprecedented levels. U.S. federal debt has reached approximately $40 trillion. Higher bond yields increase government interest costs, potentially widening fiscal deficits and requiring additional borrowing. Bernstein believes policymakers confronted with a choice between severe fiscal tightening and policies that weaken the purchasing power of currencies will ultimately favor the latter.
That environment could increase demand for scarce assets whose supplies cannot be expanded in response to government financing requirements. Bernstein identifies Bitcoin as a leading beneficiary alongside traditional inflation and debasement hedges such as gold. The firm also points to Bitcoin’s changing ownership structure. Approximately 59% of circulating BTC has not moved during the past 12 months, despite the recent 50% drawdown. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buyers have simultaneously expanded the asset’s institutional ownership base. Bernstein argues that those investors may be contributing to shallower downturns. Bitcoin historically suffered bear-market declines of approximately 75% to 90%, considerably deeper than the roughly 50% correction following its October 2025 peak.
Base Case Sees $300,000 Before $1 Million in 2033
Bernstein’s base-case valuation continues to incorporate Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle and the marginal cost of producing new BTC. The model examines Bitcoin’s market price relative to the estimated production cost faced by marginal miners and applies historical cycle relationships to future periods. Under that framework, Bernstein expects the next major cycle peak to occur in 2029 at approximately $300,000. Its bull case of $500,000 assumes the macroeconomic regime changes more quickly, with institutional capital increasingly treating Bitcoin as a hard asset and accelerating allocations ahead of the historical cycle schedule.
Bernstein nevertheless maintained its approximately $1 million target for the end of 2033 under its longer-term framework. The revised Bitcoin outlook also affected the firm’s valuation of Strategy, the largest publicly traded corporate holder of BTC. Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating on Strategy but reduced its price target to $350 from $450, citing its updated Bitcoin-cycle assumptions and increased dilution from equity issuance. Strategy currently owns 840,447 BTC, representing roughly 4% of Bitcoin’s maximum 21 million-token supply. The forecasts remain highly sensitive to Bitcoin’s historical cycle continuing to provide a useful valuation framework.
Regulatory reversals, sustained tight monetary conditions, institutional outflows or changes in Bitcoin mining economics could produce materially different outcomes. Bernstein’s central argument, however, is that Bitcoin now has an additional macroeconomic driver beyond the halving cycle. If mounting government debt increasingly pushes policymakers toward monetary and currency debasement, the firm expects Bitcoin’s fixed supply and expanding institutional accessibility to transform it into a more established hard-asset trade — supporting a return to $150,000 in 2027 and potentially a $300,000 cycle peak two years later.