Bill Ackman does U-turn on Netflix, makes bold claim

Bill Ackman just did something few investors expected. He bought Netflix stock again.

His hedge fund, Pershing Square Capital Management, disclosed a new Netflix (NFLX) position of 3.15 million shares.

The stake now makes up about 4.9% of Pershing Square’s portfolio.

The purchase is notable because of what happened last time. Ackman bought Netflix in early 2022 and sold it three months later at a loss of more than $400 million.

This time, his tone is very different. In Pershing Square’s mid-2026 investor letter, the firm wrote that “Netflix has since effectively won the streaming wars.”

That line explains why one of Wall Street‘s most-watched investors changed his mind on NFLX.

Let’s break down what he sees now, what it means for Netflix stock, and what still has to happen for the bet to pay off.

Why Bill Ackman reversed his 2022 exit from Netflix stock

Ackman’s return is a public reversal, and he is not hiding it.

In 2022, Pershing Square bought more than 3 millionNetflix shares. It sold the entire position about three months later after Netflix reported its first subscriber decline in a decade.

The stock fell hard on that news, and Ackman locked in a loss of more than $400 million, CNBC reported.

His reason for selling in 2022 was simple. He said changes to Netflix’s business model made future results too hard to predict for a fund that runs a small number of large bets.

Four years later, Ackman says the business has settled into a clear leader. Netflix now serves more than 325 million paid subscribersworldwide, which is nearly double its closest rival.

That scale is the core of his new call. A larger subscriber base gives Netflix more money to spend on shows while still keeping strong profit margins.

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square rebuilt a Netflix position four years after selling the stock at a large loss.

John Lamb / Getty Images

What Netflix’s numbers say about Ackman’s streaming call

Ackman’s claim rests on more than subscriber count. It rests on how much cash the business now produces.

Netflix converts close to 90% of its earnings into free cash flow, Invezz reported. Free cash flow is the money a company has left after paying its bills and its investments.

That cash funds two things Ackman likes: aggressive share buybacks and a fast-growing ad business.

Netflix expects its ad-supported tier to bring in $3 billion a year by the end of 2026. That’s roughly double what it made the year before.

The ad tier matters because it reaches a different type of customer. It’s cheaper, so it pulls in viewers who don’t want to pay for the standard plan.

The most recent quarter supports this growth story. Netflix reported second-quarter revenue of $12.56 billion. That’s up 13.37% from the same quarter last year, according to the company’s SEC filing.

Here is what makes the current setup attractive to Ackman.

Why Ackman sees value in Netflix now

Scale: With more than 325 million paid subscribers, it’s far ahead of rivals.
Cash: About 90% of earnings turn into free cash flow.
Buybacks: Netflix repurchased $9.1 billion of stock in 2025.
Price: The stock trades near its cheapest level since 2022.

Why Netflix stock looks cheap to Pershing Square

The timing of Ackman’s purchase matters as much as the pick itself.

Netflix stock has dropped about 45% from its June 2025 record high by late July 2026, based on the company’s stock buyback history.

The drop pushed the stock to roughly 19 times forward earnings, its cheapest level since 2022, 24/7 Wall St reported.

For a company still growing revenue at double digits, that price tag is low. It is the kind of valuation usually attached to slower, mature businesses.

Ackman’s logic is direct. The market’s disappointment over Netflix’s second-quarter guidance created the discount, and the discount created his entry point.

Pershing Square expects Netflix to grow revenue at a double-digit rate while content costs rise more slowly, which would widen profit margins over time, Reuters reported.

How Netflix fits Ackman’s move away from AI stocks

The Netflix buy is part of a larger shift in how Ackman is investing.

Pershing Square disclosed six new positions at once. Alongside Netflix, the firm added Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), S&P Global (SPGI), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and Alcon (ALC), according to Benzinga.

These are cash-generating companies with steady earnings. Most of them sit outside the crowded artificial intelligence trade that has driven much of the market.

More Netflix Stocks:

The message is that Ackman wants durable profit growth at a fair price, rather than expensive bets on the next AI winner.

For investors, this is a useful signal. It shows a major fund manager choosing proven earnings over hype at a moment when many portfolios lean heavily on technology.

Netflix fits that goal because it makes real cash today, not projected cash years from now.

What Netflix stock has done vs. the S&P 500

Ackman is buying a stock that has badly trailed the market.

The comparison shows why he sees an opening.

Netflix stock vs. the S&P 500 in 2026

Past week: Netflix rose nearly 7%, helped by Ackman’s disclosure, based on the reference price data.
Past month: Netflix fell roughly 13%.
Year over year: Netflix fell about 40%, while the S&P 500 gained 16.58%.

That gap is the entire point. A strong business and a weak stock can exist at the same time, and Ackman is betting the two will move back together.

The risks that could undo Ackman’s Netflix bet

Ackman’s call is clear, but it is not risk-free.

The first risk is viewer attention.

Total watch time across paid streaming services rose just 2% in the first half of 2026, and free apps like YouTube and TikTok keep pulling viewers away, TipRanks reported.

The second risk is visibility. Netflix stopped reporting quarterly subscriber numbers, which makes each quarter harder to judge from the outside.

The third risk is content. Netflix’s recent slate was not strong enough to stop some cancellations, and a weak pipeline could slow growth again.

Here is what still has to go right for Ackman’s bet to work.

What needs to happen for the Netflix thesis to hold

Netflix must actually double ad revenue toward the $3 billion target.
Engagement growth needs to stabilize after the recent slide.
The company must meet its Q3 guidance to rebuild investor trust.

What Bill Ackman’s Netflix bet means for your decision

Ackman’s return to Netflix gives investors a clear case study, not a guaranteed win.

The setup is easy to understand. A profitable, growing company saw its stock fall about 45%, and a major investor stepped in while the price was low.

If you are considering Netflix, the practical approach is the one Ackman himself uses on beaten-down names. Start with a small position and add slowly if the price keeps falling, which lowers your average cost.

You should also weigh the risks honestly. A cheap stock can stay cheap if ad growth stalls or content stays weak, so don’t expect a quick rebound.

Ackman is paying for Netflix’s current cash generation and market lead. His bet only pays off if Netflix proves its growth engine still has room to run.