Polymarket traders are overwhelmingly betting that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal by Saturday, August 15, as continued hostilities and diplomatic deadlock keep commercial shipping severely restricted.
The prediction market’s “Yes” contract was trading at roughly 0.4 cents on August 13, implying less than a 1% probability that the required traffic threshold will be reached by the deadline. “No” shares were priced around 99.7 cents.
More than $5.5 million has now traded in the August 15 contract, a sharp increase from roughly $310,000 in volume earlier in the market’s life as traders increasingly positioned around the approaching deadline.
The market is not asking whether Iran formally announces that the Strait has reopened. Instead, settlement depends on actual shipping activity measured by the International Monetary Fund’s PortWatch system.
The Threshold Is Still Far Away
Under Polymarket’s rules, the contract resolves “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a seven-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls through Hormuz for any date through August 15. Otherwise, it resolves “No.”
That distinction makes a last-minute diplomatic announcement insufficient on its own. Vessel traffic would need to recover rapidly enough to push the seven-day average above the specified threshold.
Current shipping activity remains nowhere close.
Reuters reported that only eight vessels were tracked passing through Hormuz on August 11, according to Kpler, below the previous 10-day average of roughly 12. Separate LSEG data counted 11 transits, compared with 14 the previous day.
Before Iran effectively closed the waterway following the start of U.S.-Israeli attacks on February 28, roughly 70 to 80 vessels typically passed through the Strait each day.
The enormous gap between current and pre-war traffic explains why Polymarket traders have effectively priced out an August 15 normalization.
Hormuz Remains a Global Energy Risk
The prediction-market signal also reflects worsening diplomatic conditions. Iran has said the Strait will remain closed unless Washington accepts its conditions, while negotiations over how the waterway would eventually operate remain unresolved. Tehran has sought greater control over inbound traffic and oversight of outbound shipping under arrangements discussed with Oman.
The consequences extend well beyond prediction markets. Roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies passed through Hormuz before the war, making prolonged disruption a major risk for energy markets.
Brent crude settled at $88.91 per barrel on August 11, up 1.4% for the session, while West Texas Intermediate gained 1.3% to $83.20. Brent was approximately 44% higher for the year as Middle East disruptions tightened global supply.
Polymarket traders are also skeptical that normalization will occur later in August. The platform’s August 31 contract was recently priced at about 5 cents, implying only around a 5% chance that PortWatch’s required traffic threshold will be reached by the end of the month.
For Saturday’s deadline, however, the market’s judgment is considerably more decisive. With shipping traffic still dramatically below normal and only days remaining, traders are pricing the August 15 threshold as an extreme long shot.