The obvious reading is that Wednesday’s retatrutide post is the year-end price. It is not. Eli Lilly and Company closed Tuesday, 27 October 2026, at $1,281.91 on the NYSE. Through 31 December the last 90 daily log-returns put a bull at $1,688.08, a base at $1,384.75 and a bear at $1,213.46. The bull is $406.17, or 31.68 percent, above that close. The bear is $68.45, or 5.34 percent, below it.
What the coverage skips is the filing calendar, not the headline. The company account said the triple agonist is investigational. The 5 August exhibit already set a biologics license application for the first quarter of 2027, which is outside these 45 sessions. No third-quarter 10-Q is in the SEC submissions saved on 28 October. The revenue line that has to hold, if the bull is prescriptions rather than a multiple on an unapproved drug, is still Mounjaro and Zepbound. Foundayo, the oral name in that exhibit, booked $98 million in the quarter. It is not the franchise.
Key facts
- NYSE close, Tuesday 27 October 2026: $1,281.91, up $2.77 from $1,279.14. The quote page prints +0.22 percent and 4:00 p.m. ET. Low $1,272.07. Volume 1,849,712. Nasdaq’s historical file names the exchange NYSE. Historical page, saved 28 October 2026.
- Premarket, 7:04 a.m. ET, Wednesday 28 October: $1,267.29, down $14.62, or 1.14 percent. Bid $1,266.25, ask $1,270.60. Status was Pre-Market. Not the spot. Quote page.
- Same file: 20-day average $1,214.522, close $67.39 above it, or 5.55 percent. 50-day average $1,190.5594, close $91.35 above it, or 7.67 percent. Prior five sessions: high $1,321.21 on 22 October, low $1,257.62 on 23 October.
- Quote page 52-week range: $809.63 to $1,321.21. The file, from 2 June 2025, lows at $623.78 on 8 August 2025, outside that label. File high $1,321.21 on 22 October, close that day $1,306.69.
- 5 August 2026 exhibit: Q2 revenue $22,974 million, up 48 percent. Reported EPS $7.94. Non-GAAP EPS $8.38. Full-year revenue guide $85.0 billion to $87.0 billion. Non-GAAP EPS guide $35.50 to $36.50. SEC exhibit.
- Same table, millions: Mounjaro $9,943, up 91 percent. Zepbound $4,928, up 46 percent. Foundayo $98. Year to date revenue $42,773 million. Mounjaro $18,605 million. Zepbound $9,088 million.
- Quote page, 28 October 2026: earnings date 29 October 2026, no hour stated. Latest 10-Q and earnings 8-K in the SEC submissions are both 5 August 2026, quarter ended 30 June.
- House path, not a broker target: bull $1,688.08, base $1,384.75, bear $1,213.46. N is 45. Mu 0.0017149091. Sigma 0.0196842219. No English FinanceFeeds Lilly pair collided with those cents.
What just happened, and why the obvious reading is wrong
Two clocks are running, and they are not the same event. Tuesday’s cash session closed at $1,281.91, up $2.77 from $1,279.14. The historical file has no Wednesday bar. The quote page, saved while the status still read Pre-Market, showed $1,267.29 at 7:04 a.m. ET. The closes used here are Tuesday’s completed prints. A premarket sale is not the spot.
The other event is a clinical post, not a filing. At 10:54 UTC the company account said an investigational triple agonist delivered greater A1C reductions and more than double the weight loss versus an injectable GLP-1 at 80 weeks. The status names no comparator, no doses, and no share price. The company short link returned 403 and a Reuters URL returned 401, so dose tables posted elsewhere on X are not used.
The guide arithmetic cuts against a simple acceleration story. First-quarter revenue in the companyfacts frame CY2026Q1, filed 30 April 2026, is $19,799 million. Added to the second quarter’s $22,974 million, that is $42,773 million, which matches the exhibit’s year-to-date total. The second half implied by the $85.0 billion to $87.0 billion range is therefore $42,227 million to $44,227 million. Two more quarters at the second-quarter level would be $45,948 million, and a full year of $88,721 million, which is $1,721 million above the top of the guide. Repeating the last quarter would already sit outside the range management set on 5 August. The $1,688.08 bull does not decide which path Thursday takes.
Who is exposed
Second-quarter revenue grew on 60 percent more volume and a 13 percent drop in realized prices. U.S. revenue rose 33 percent to $14.4 billion. Outside the U.S. it rose 80 percent to $8.6 billion. Excluding rebate adjustments, the company said U.S. price would have fallen about 9 percent. The exposed book is patients and payers on Zepbound and Mounjaro, including China’s reimbursement list on the ex-U.S. Mounjaro line.
Mounjaro’s table line is $9,943 million, up 91 percent from $5,199 million. The narrative rounds it to $9.9 billion, with U.S. revenue of $4.8 billion and ex-U.S. revenue of $5.2 billion after China’s National Reimbursement Drug List addition. Zepbound prints $4,928 million, up 46 percent. The narrative then says U.S. Zepbound rose 44 percent to $4.9 billion, including cash-pay cuts. Both percentages are in the exhibit.
Mounjaro plus Zepbound are $14,871 million of the quarter, or 64.73 percent. Foundayo at $98 million is 0.43 percent. The other side of the category is already on FinanceFeeds: Novo Nordisk’s September slide, the Novo bull and bear, and the Hims bull and bear. Those pages are other companies. They are not this close.
Lilly is also a small shareholder elsewhere. A Schedule 13D filed 16 October 2026 reports 5,480,872 shares of TRex Bio, about 19.9 percent, including 875,000 IPO shares at $14.00, about $12.3 million. Julie Gilmore, a Lilly employee, is on that board with no contractual right to the seat. The lock-up runs 180 days after 8 October 2026 unless J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and Evercore Group L.L.C. consent. That stake does not fund the bull.
What the tape and the primary documents show
The chart is the NYSE official daily close, downloaded from the Nasdaq historical endpoint. That info file sets the exchange to NYSE and isNasdaqListed to false, so this is not a Nasdaq close. The window runs from 1 October 2025 through Tuesday, with daily lows on the top panel. The bottom panel draws bull, base, and bear.
The close sits $67.39 above the 20-day average of $1,214.522 and $91.35 above the 50-day average of $1,190.5594. It is $39.30 under the prior five-session high of $1,321.21 and $24.29 above the prior five-session low of $1,257.62. Both averages are underneath. Tuesday’s range was $1,272.07 to $1,297.92 on 1,849,712 shares. The 22 October close, the file high at $1,306.69, leaves Tuesday 1.90 percent under it. The 8 August 2025 close of $625.65 is in the file and is not the quote page’s 52-week low.
The largest log-return in the 90 is 26 June 2026, from $1,127.69 to $1,208.12, up 7.13 percent. The 5 August earnings session is second, from $1,115.68 to $1,169.86, up 4.86 percent. Neither was dropped. Sigma is 0.0196842219.
| Reading | Figure | What it is, and what it is not |
|---|---|---|
| Official close | $1,281.91 on 27 October | NYSE daily close. The formula spot. Not the 7:04 a.m. print. |
| Last reported quarter | Revenue $22,974 million, EPS $7.94 | 5 August exhibit. Not the 29 October print. |
| Incretin lines | Mounjaro $9,943 million, Zepbound $4,928 million | 64.73 percent of the quarter. Foundayo was $98 million. |
| Guide versus a repeat | $85.0 billion to $87.0 billion | Two more quarters like Q2 would be about $88.7 billion, above the top. |
| House bull, base, bear | $1,688.08, $1,384.75, $1,213.46 | 45 sessions and the last 90 log-returns. Not a street target. |
What Lilly said, and what it has not filed
David A. Ricks, Lilly chair and chief executive, in the 5 August exhibit: “Lilly’s momentum continues, as we delivered 48% revenue growth and raised our full-year guidance.” The next sentence is the one Wednesday’s post does not replace: “At the same time, Lilly is building for the future. With our next-generation weight-loss medicine retatrutide and its complete clinical data package in hand, new manufacturing capacity coming online, and exciting new assets entering our pipeline through business development, Lilly’s future, after 150 years, has never been brighter.” Both sentences are in the exhibit.
The second named remark is not a Lilly transcript fetched here. An X account reported that Kenneth Custer, president of Lilly Cardiometabolic Health, said the company believes retatrutide could change the treatment approach for people with type 2 diabetes, obesity, and related cardiometabolic conditions if approved. That wording is the post. The “if approved” is the point. The same post attributes an Ozempic 2 mg comparison to Reuters. Reuters did not open. The company post says “an injectable GLP-1” and gives no percentages.
The third quarter is not filed. The latest earnings pair in the submissions list is the 5 August 8-K and the 10-Q for the period ended 30 June. The quote page lists 29 October 2026 and does not give the hour. Two X previews disagreed, at $22.58 billion and $5.38 against $22.84 billion and $6.61, so both are dropped. Other posts named a Goldman figure of $1,413 and a Bernstein move to $1,450 from $1,385. Those notes were not downloaded. They are not this bull or this bear.
On 22 October the company account said it broke ground in Goochland, Virginia, its second U.S. facility in two months, for next-gen cancer medicines and 650 high-wage jobs. That status is the source. The August exhibit separately commits $4.5 billion more to Indiana sites. The post does not merge the two.
Price, the guide, and a filing that is not due this year
Reported EPS rose 26 percent to $7.94. Non-GAAP EPS rose 33 percent to $8.38. Both included $3.03 of acquired in-process research and development, against $0.14 a year earlier. The company said an underlying non-GAAP EPS raise of $2.78 at the midpoint was more than offset by that charge, leaving $35.50 to $36.50. A reader who stops at “up 48 percent” misses a 13 percent price decline and a $3.03 charge.
Foundayo is in the revenue table and still too small to carry the bull. The exhibit says orforglipron was submitted for type 2 diabetes in the United States, and it uses the Foundayo name for that oral GLP-1. The $98 million is both the quarter and the year to date. The same list puts the retatrutide U.S. application in the first quarter of 2027, after this window. Ebglyss and Jaypirca, at $201 million and $192 million in the quarter, sit next to $9,943 million of Mounjaro. Diluted shares were 893,671 thousand. Tuesday’s close times that count is about $1.146 trillion, arithmetic on two saved figures, not a company market-cap line.
Bull, base, and bear
The title numbers are this distribution, not a broker target. A WordPress search on 28 October for Eli Lilly, LLY, Mounjaro, and Zepbound did not return an English FinanceFeeds title with a Lilly bull and a Lilly bear. The Novo pair of $64 and $32, and the Hims pair of $40 and $21, are other companies. Nothing there sits within $1 of $1,688.08 or $1,213.46. The year-end horizon stays. A ten-session path was computed and not used.
The spot is Tuesday’s $1,281.91 close. The last 90 daily log-returns use 91 closes, from 18 June 2026 through 27 October 2026. Mu, the mean, is 0.0017149091. Sigma, the sample standard deviation with divisor n minus 1, is 0.0196842219. N is 45: 28, 29 and 30 October are 3 sessions. November has 20 weekdays once Thanksgiving, Thursday 26 November, is out, and Friday 27 November still counts. December has 22 weekdays once Christmas, Friday 25 December, is out, and Thursday 24 December still counts. The square root of 45 is 6.70820393.
Base is the spot times e to the power of N times mu. Forty-five times 0.0017149091 is 0.07717091. That exponent on $1,281.91 is $1,384.7534 before rounding, which rounds half up to $1,384.75, or $102.84 above the close, 8.02 percent. Bull adds 1.5 times sigma times the square root of N. Sigma times 6.70820393 is 0.13204577. One and a half times that is 0.19806866. Added to 0.07717091, the exponent is 0.27523957, and the price is $1,688.0782 before rounding, $1,688.08 after, up $406.17, or 31.68 percent. Bear subtracts 0.13204577. The exponent is negative 0.05487487. The price is $1,213.4606 before rounding, $1,213.46 after, down $68.45, or 5.34 percent. The bull is above the spot, so the drift stays in. This is not financial advice.
| Case | Price | Versus the $1,281.91 spot | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $1,688.08 | Up $406.17, or 31.68 percent | The drift continues and 31 December finishes 1.5 standard deviations above it, with Mounjaro and Zepbound still the revenue, not a 2027 filing. |
| Base | $1,384.75 | Up $102.84, or 8.02 percent | Only the mean of the last 90 sessions continues for 45 sessions. No extra volatility, and no new guide. |
| Bear | $1,213.46 | Down $68.45, or 5.34 percent | The same drift minus one standard deviation. The band is not a separate model of a deeper price cut. |
The bear at $1,213.46 is 5.34 percent under Tuesday and still above the 20-day average. The bull clears the file high of $1,321.21 by $366.87. Clearing that high is not Mounjaro repeating $9,943 million. The bull is a prescription outcome only if the incretin share of sales stays near the 64.73 percent the exhibit already prints. A multiple on an unapproved agonist can rise without that. The formula does not know the difference. The filing calendar does.
What happens next
On 29 October 2026 the company is due to report, on the date the quote page lists and not at an hour the page does not give. If Mounjaro and Zepbound volumes still outrun the realized-price decline, the print can land inside, or above, a full-year range that already assumes a slower second half than a straight repeat of $22,974 million. If the cash-pay cuts the exhibit already named for Zepbound take more growth than volume gives back, sales can disappoint a whisper the company has not published and still be inside the guide. Either result is a prescription outcome. Neither is an approval of retatrutide.
By 31 December the base of $1,384.75 is the drift alone, and the bull of $1,688.08 needs that drift plus a 1.5 sigma finish. It is a revenue outcome only if Mounjaro and Zepbound remain the majority of sales and Foundayo stays a small line. It is only a multiple if the tape pays for the 2027 application while the 13 percent price decline compounds. The bear of $1,213.46 is the lower edge of the same cloud. The retatrutide filing, on the August language, and the TRex lock-up both sit in 2027. Neither date is inside N.
Frequently asked questions
Where do the sessions through 31 December 2026 put a fresh bull and bear on Eli Lilly, and which incretin has to keep the revenue?
The bull is $1,688.08 and the bear is $1,213.46, from Tuesday’s NYSE close of $1,281.91, with a base of $1,384.75 over 45 sessions. Mounjaro and Zepbound have to keep the revenue line. Together they were $14,871 million of the $22,974 million second quarter. Foundayo, the oral successor already in the table, was $98 million. Retatrutide is investigational, and the August exhibit put its U.S. application in the first quarter of 2027, after this window.
Is Wednesday’s premarket price the spot for this forecast?
No. The spot is the Tuesday 27 October official close of $1,281.91. The Nasdaq quote page, saved with the status still reading Pre-Market, showed a last sale of $1,267.29 at 7:04 a.m. ET on 28 October, down $14.62. The historical file has no Wednesday bar. A partial session is not the last chart point and it is not an input to mu or sigma. The formula does not update until a cash close exists.
Does the retatrutide post change 2026 revenue guidance?
Not on any document saved for this piece. Guidance remains the 5 August range of $85.0 billion to $87.0 billion. The Wednesday company post calls the triple agonist investigational and does not mention the guide. Year-to-date revenue is already $42,773 million, so the range implies a second half of $42,227 million to $44,227 million. Two more quarters like the second quarter would print about $88.7 billion, above that top. The post does not amend the range.
What did the second quarter actually report for Mounjaro and Zepbound?
The exhibit’s product table prints Mounjaro at $9,943 million, up 91 percent from $5,199 million, and Zepbound at $4,928 million, up 46 percent from $3,381 million. The narrative rounds Mounjaro to $9.9 billion and says U.S. Zepbound rose 44 percent to $4.9 billion, including cash-pay price cuts. Both wordings are in the filing. Reported EPS was $7.94 and included $3.03 of acquired IPR&D charges. Volume for the company rose 60 percent. Realized prices fell 13 percent.
How is $1,688.08 different from targets posted on X?
It is the house distribution, not a downloaded bank note. Accounts on X posted a Goldman figure of $1,413 and a Bernstein figure of $1,450. Those notes were not in the filings fetched here, so they are not treated as confirmed targets, and they are not this bull or this bear. The bull compounds Tuesday’s close for 45 sessions at the 90-day mean plus 1.5 standard deviations. A named analyst target remains a separate number.
Does a positive base mean the stock has to rise into year-end?
No. The base is only the average of the last 90 daily log-returns, carried forward 45 sessions. Mu is positive, so that midpoint, $1,384.75, sits above $1,281.91. The bear at $1,213.46 is still inside the same cloud, and it is above the 20-day average. A single earnings session, a price cut, or a guide change can do something the 90-day sample has not done. The path is a calculation. It is not an instruction to buy or sell the shares.