XRP entered Fed week around $1.30 after briefly trading as high as $1.3148 on Sunday, with two institutional signals moving in opposite directions: U.S. spot XRP ETFs returned to modest inflows after ending a 13-week winning streak, while the value of their assets remains roughly $322 million below cumulative net subscriptions.
The token has also shown relative resilience during another weak stretch for bitcoin. Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on October 24, reaching its lowest level in roughly a month, while XRP recovered toward $1.30 after briefly dipping to about $1.256.
That makes $1.28-$1.30 the immediate price zone entering the Federal Reserve’s October 27-28 meeting. Below it, analysts are watching $1.25. Above it, $1.40-$1.42 is the first meaningful recovery test.
The macro event is not the only dated catalyst. The XRP Ledger’s fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment is now expected to activate on November 4 after its validator approval clock reset last week.
XRP ETFs Took Back $4.25 Million After Their First Losing Week in 14
U.S. spot XRP ETFs attracted approximately $4.25 million in net inflows during the week ending October 23, according to SoSoValue data.
The recovery was concentrated rather than broad. About $709,000 entered the funds on October 21, followed by approximately $3.55 million on October 22, almost all through Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ. October 23 then recorded no net flow.
FinanceFeeds reported the October 21 turn back toward crypto ETF inflows, when XRP products added about $709,000 alongside a much larger $524.8 million recovery in bitcoin ETFs.
The $4.25 million week followed a $1.84 million net outflow during October 12-16. That withdrawal was small relative to the funds’ assets, but it mattered because it ended 13 consecutive positive weeks.
FinanceFeeds had already flagged the change in its October 18 XRP market setup, when the token was trading around the same $1.30 level it is testing again now.
The $322 Million Gap Is the Harder ETF Number
The more important ETF number may not be this week’s $4.25 million inflow.
Since launch, U.S. spot XRP ETFs have attracted approximately $1.80 billion in cumulative net inflows. Their current market value is only about $1.48 billion.
That leaves roughly a $322 million gap between cumulative net capital contributed and the current value of the funds’ assets.
It is not a precise calculation of every ETF investor’s cost basis. Investors entered and exited on different dates, and cumulative net inflows and current net assets measure different things. But on a simple aggregate basis, it shows how much XRP’s price decline has offset the capital that flowed into the products.
The contrast is particularly striking because network participation is still expanding. Santiment reported a record 8.24 million non-empty XRP Ledger wallets, including 4,772 new wallets in one day. The figure measures addresses rather than unique people, so it should not be described as 8.24 million individual investors.
The November 4 XRPL Fix Has Regained Validator Support
The next network-specific date is November 4.
The XRP Ledger’s fixCleanup3_4_0 package had originally been on course to activate October 23. That timetable broke on October 21 when support briefly dropped to 26 of the network’s 35 default trusted validators, below the 29 required to maintain the necessary supermajority.
The amendment regained its majority at approximately 14:46 UTC that day, restarting the mandatory 14-day approval period. FinanceFeeds reported the reset and November 4 timetable on October 22.
Validator backing has since strengthened. The latest explorer reading shows 32 of 35 validators voting in favor, or about 91%, although November 4 remains conditional on support staying above the required threshold.
The amendment bundles fixes affecting token permissions, automated market makers, vaults, lending infrastructure, escrow, signing and permission delegation. Among the corrections is a token-permission issue under which an account authorized only to burn issued tokens could, in specific circumstances, also create them when a payment crossed a zero-balance boundary.
The activation should not be confused with the launch of XRPL’s proposed native lending protocol. The lending amendments require their own validator approval.
Institutional use of the ledger is also expanding independently of XRP’s spot price. Franklin Templeton added approximately $150 million of tokenized sgBENJI money-market fund shares to the XRP Ledger last week, bringing the relevant on-ledger position to roughly $200 million. Those transactions represented fund shares recorded on XRPL, not a $150 million purchase of XRP.
The Fed Is Expected to Hold – Guidance Is the XRP Risk
The Federal Reserve announces its decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 28.
The consensus has moved heavily toward no change. In Reuters’ October 16-20 survey, 94 of 100 economists expected the Fed to leave its policy rate at 3.75%-4.00%. Futures markets were pricing only a single-digit probability of an October hike by Sunday.
That means the base-case decision itself is unlikely to provide XRP with a large surprise. The greater risk is what the Fed says about December after September’s 25-basis-point increase and continued inflation pressure.
A relatively patient message would remove one macro obstacle for crypto and give XRP another chance to reclaim $1.40. A more hawkish signal toward a December hike could keep pressure on bitcoin and make another XRP test of $1.25 more likely.
XRP Price Prediction: $1.25 Below, $1.42-$1.60 Above
Ali Martinez has identified $1.25 as the support area he is watching for a potential rebound. His recent channel analysis puts $1.42 around the midpoint of the recovery range and $1.60 near its upper boundary. In a separate setup, Martinez said a sustained close above roughly $1.56 could open a path toward $2, while losing $1.25 would put $1 back into consideration.
Santiment offers a nearer-term hurdle. The analytics firm identified $1.40 as the first important resistance level and said a sustained move through it, alongside continued strong wallet creation, could support a return toward $1.50.
The base case for Fed week is therefore still a range rather than a breakout. If XRP can keep reclaiming $1.28-$1.30 and the Fed delivers the widely expected hold without a materially more hawkish message, $1.40-$1.42 is the first upside test.
A move through that zone would put $1.50-$1.60 back into view. Failure at $1.30 followed by a break of $1.25 would invalidate that short-term recovery setup and move the downside discussion closer to $1.
The ETF tape is improving again, but $4.25 million after a $1.84 million losing week is not yet a return to the stronger institutional demand seen in September. For XRP, the next confirmation needs to come from price: hold the $1.25-$1.30 floor through Fed week, then reclaim $1.40.