Updated 22 October 2026. Brent crude traded at $110.63 a barrel at 07:36 UAE time on Thursday, up $1.81 or 1.7 percent from Wednesday’s $108.82 settlement, after a Houthi drone was intercepted near Saudi Aramco’s one-million-barrel-a-day Shaybah field and a second attack hit Dammam’s airport (The National, Reuters). Washington has ordered some diplomats and their families out of Saudi Arabia. WTI was $98.52, up 1.4 percent. Verdict: the market is paying for Saudi risk on top of Hormuz risk, but the US fuel-reserve loan and a surprise distillate build cap the diesel premium. Reference levels: $105 below, $113 above.
Key facts
- Price: Brent $110.63, up 1.7 percent, at 07:36 UAE time; WTI $98.52, up 1.4 percent (The National, 22 October). Reuters had Brent at $110.11 and WTI at $98.12 at 00:34 GMT. Wednesday’s settlements: Brent $108.82, up 3 cents; WTI $97.15, down 67 cents. Monday’s intraday high near $112 was a five-month peak.
- Shaybah: a Houthi drone aimed at a processing plant at the Shaybah oilfield on Wednesday was intercepted, and its debris struck a contractor’s vehicle, killing two and injuring two. The Saudi Energy Ministry said operations were unaffected. Shaybah, in the Empty Quarter, produces about one million barrels a day (The National).
- Dammam: hours later an attack on King Fahd International Airport killed one person and injured eight, according to the civil aviation authority. The Houthis had claimed 19 October attacks on an Aramco site in Yanbu, Shaybah and the Riyadh and Abha airports (Reuters).
- US evacuation order: the State Department ordered non-emergency government employees and family members to leave Saudi Arabia, and officials told Reuters family members will be withdrawn from several other regional missions.
- Shipping: Kpler counted at least 18 attacks on vessels in two weeks. LSEG analysts said Iran is targeting tankers beyond the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman, putting crude loadings and ship-to-ship transfers at risk. Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial said at least two more ships were struck overnight (Reuters).
- Pipeline: crude flows on the 7-million-barrel-a-day East-West pipeline, the main route around Hormuz to the Red Sea, were halted on 5 October after a Houthi strike on a pumping station east of Riyadh (The National).
- Inventories: EIA crude stocks fell 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million in the week to 16 October, against an 820,000-barrel draw expected in a Reuters poll. Distillates rose 1.68 million barrels to 104.3 million when a 1.16-million-barrel draw was forecast.
- Policy: the US Energy Department offered on Wednesday to lend up to almost a third of the one-million-barrel emergency heating oil reserve to ease diesel shortages linked to the Iran and Ukraine conflicts (Reuters).
Saudi risk is now priced alongside Hormuz risk
Until this week the oil bid was about the strait: mines, tanker strikes and the Gulf of Oman spillover we covered in Tuesday’s page. Wednesday added a second channel. A drone reached the perimeter of Shaybah, the field that feeds the Red Sea export route, the Dammam airport was hit on the Gulf side, and the United States told its own staff to leave. No barrels were lost on Wednesday, and the ministry says operations continue, but a market that already lost the East-West pipeline for a stretch in early October now has to price the chance that the next drone is not intercepted.
The diplomatic track that sent Brent off Monday’s high has gone quiet. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi told the Financial Times Tehran is ready to defend itself, and President Masoud Pezeshkian said Washington cannot expect dialogue while blockading and threatening Iran (Reuters). A diplomat’s dismissal of the Qatar-Pakistan proposal is in our Wednesday report. Unexplained explosions were reported in Sirik on the Iranian coast on Wednesday.
What is holding the price down
Two things. The surprise distillate build and the Energy Department’s offer to lend heating oil take some heat out of the diesel crack that has led this rally, and Kissler notes that progress on Ukraine, where the Kremlin said Vladimir Putin agreed to resume US-mediated talks as early as November after meeting Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg, “could unlock the tight global diesel supplies” (Reuters). The crude draw was four times the forecast, so the physical market is still tight. The restraint is in products, not crude, and it is why Wednesday’s $2 early gain faded to a 3-cent close before Thursday’s Saudi headlines reopened the move.
Brent today: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $105 | No further Saudi strikes, the Ukraine talks date is confirmed, and the distillate build plus the reserve loan pull the diesel crack in. | About 5 percent below Thursday’s $110.63, the area Brent settled into after Monday’s talks-driven drop and the floor of the past two weeks of settlements. |
| Base | $108-$112 | Attacks continue without hitting output, Hormuz traffic stays disrupted, and Shaybah and the airports stay in the headlines. | Wednesday’s $108.82 settlement to Monday’s five-month intraday high near $112 (Reuters). |
| Bull | $113 | A strike takes Saudi barrels or the East-West pipeline offline again, or a tanker is lost in the Gulf of Oman and loadings stop. | A new five-month high, about 2 percent above Thursday’s price and above Monday’s $112 peak. |
The bear case sits below Thursday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch on Thursday
- Saudi air defence: any strike that reaches a plant rather than a vehicle outside it changes the supply math; Shaybah alone is a million barrels a day.
- East-West pipeline: whether flows to Yanbu are restored after the 5 October halt. Without it, Saudi exports depend on the Gulf and Hormuz.
- Gulf of Oman: Kpler and LSEG tanker-attack counts. Loadings outside the strait were the market’s workaround.
- Ukraine: a dated November round between Washington and Moscow would weigh on diesel, the product that has led this rally.
- Gold and yields: oil above $110 keeps the December Fed hike priced; see our gold page for the rate channel.
Quick take: Brent is $110.63 after a drone reached Shaybah’s perimeter, an attack hit Dammam’s airport and the US pulled diplomats out of Saudi Arabia. The crude draw was four times the forecast, but distillates built and the US is lending heating oil. Expect $108-$112. A quiet Saudi night and a Ukraine talks date open $105. Lost Saudi barrels or a tanker loss in the Gulf of Oman open $113.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
Brent traded at $110.63 a barrel at 07:36 UAE time on Thursday 22 October 2026, up 1.7 percent from Wednesday’s $108.82 settlement (The National). Reuters quoted $110.11 at 00:34 GMT.
Why is oil up on Thursday?
Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia: a drone intercepted near the Shaybah oilfield killed two people, and an attack on Dammam’s airport killed one. The US ordered some diplomats and families out of the kingdom (Reuters, The National).
Was Saudi oil production hit?
No. The Saudi Energy Ministry said Shaybah’s operations were unaffected; the drone debris struck a contractor’s vehicle outside the plant (The National).
What did the EIA report?
Crude inventories fell 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million in the week to 16 October, far more than the 820,000-barrel draw expected. Distillates rose 1.68 million barrels against an expected decline (Reuters).
Is the US releasing emergency reserves?
The Energy Department offered to lend up to almost a third of the one-million-barrel heating oil reserve to ease diesel shortages. It is a loan, not a sale (Reuters).
Could Ukraine talks lower oil prices?
The Kremlin said Putin agreed to resume US-mediated talks as early as November. BOK Financial’s Dennis Kissler said a settlement “could unlock the tight global diesel supplies” (Reuters).
Sources: The National (Brent and WTI at 07:36 UAE time, Shaybah strike details, Saudi Energy Ministry statement, East-West pipeline, 22 October 2026); Reuters via Nation Thailand (prices at 00:34 GMT, settlements, Dammam attack, US evacuation order, Kpler and LSEG shipping data, BOK Financial’s Dennis Kissler, EIA inventories, Energy Department reserve loan, Ukraine talks, Iranian statements, 22 October); HDFC Sky (Brent $110.5 and WTI $98.4 cross-check, 22 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.