When a hot phone sells out, most people refresh Apple’s website and accept whatever date it gives them. That habit could cost iPhone Duo buyers a couple of extra months this year.
I’ve followed Bank of America’s weekly iPhone lead-time tracker since preorders for the iPhone 18 Pro opened in September. This week’s update is the first one with real data on Apple’s foldable, and it holds a useful surprise for buyers.
Demand for new iPhones is not the question. Apple (AAPL) reported $109.4 billion in revenue for its June quarter, up 16 percent, with iPhone sales up 22 percent to $54.3 billion, according to MacRumors.
“This is the most powerful and most popular iPhone lineup we’ve ever had,” then-CEO Tim Cook said on the company’s July 30 earnings call.
However, the supply side of that story looks very different, depending on where you order.
According to a Bank of America Global Research note dated Oct. 19 and reviewed by TheStreet, the iPhone Duo’s wait on U.S. carrier websites averages about 50 days, roughly half the 102 days Apple’s own store is quoting across all storage sizes and colors.
Duo shoppers face two very different waits
Bank of America tracks ship dates on Apple’s website and on major carrier sites every week. As of Oct. 19, the global weighted average wait for the iPhone Duo stood at 82 days, the note said.
Outside the U.S., the picture is uniform and slow. China, Japan, the U.K., Germany, France and Australia all showed a 95-day wait for every storage size, which pushes delivery to about Jan. 22.
U.S. carrier sites were noticeably faster across the board:
- The 256GB Duo showed an average wait of 53 days, according to the Bank of America tracker.
- The 512GB model was at 48 days and the 1TB version at 50 days, the note showed.
- The top 2TB model, which costs $3,199, showed the shortest wait at 47 days, based on pricing reported by TheStreet.
Analyst Wamsi Mohan, who wrote the note titled “iPhone Duo lead times extend to next year; Pro and Pro Max broadly stabilize,” offered a simple explanation for the gap.
Availability on U.S. carrier sites “appears to be much better than Apple’s own website,” which “could be due to varying allocations of inventory,” wrote Mohan.
Related: Bank of America flags surprising iPhone 18 pre-order trend
The in-store picture is tighter still. The Duo shows no in-store availability for its Oct. 23 launch day, and Apple’s site is telling shoppers to check again on Oct. 24 for pickup, the note said.
There is a catch for your wallet. Buying through a carrier usually ties the phone to that carrier’s installment plan, while Apple’s own iPhone Upgrade Program starts at $57.99 a month on a 24-month lease, TheStreet reported.
A shorter wait is only worth it if the carrier terms fit your budget.
China lead times flash a warning on iPhone 18 Pro demand
The Duo grabs the headlines, but the iPhone 18 Pro, one of just three new iPhones Apple launched this fall, is where wait times keep shrinking.
The global average fell to eight days from nine a week earlier and from 14 days in the first week of preorders, according to Bank of America.
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China moved the most. Pro lead times there dropped to four days from 11 the week before, “indicating a meaningful improvement in availability,” wrote Mohan. That is now the shortest wait among international regions, where the Pro averages about 11 days.
The Pro Max is a different story. Its global wait held at 15 days, and the note said availability “remains comparatively tighter” for the bigger model.
By my analysis, a sudden drop in China wait times can mean two things: Apple caught up on supply, or buyers there are cooling off. The backdrop makes the second reading hard to dismiss.
China’s smartphone shipments fell 15.4 percent from a year earlier to 57.9 million units in the third quarter, and Apple’s shipments slipped 4.3 percent, according to preliminary IDC data reported by TechNode. Huawei led the market and was the only major vendor with double-digit growth.
IDC blamed higher memory and component costs, which pushed retail prices up and stretched out how long people keep their phones, TechNode reported. Apple raised starting prices for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max by $100, to $1,199 and $1,299.
Given that backdrop, it’s easy to see why the Pro data deserves a closer look than the Duo sellout. Apple told suppliers to cut October component orders for the Pro models by at least 15 percent, Nikkei Asia reported, as TheStreet noted on Oct. 12.
Fewer orders and shorter waits can point to the same thing.
What Bank of America expects before the Nov. 2 report
For now, Mohan reads the week as normalization, not trouble. The Pro data points to “continued normalization,” he wrote, while Pro Max supply stays tighter and initial Duo store inventory “appears to be sold out.”
The next real test is Nov. 2, when Apple reports results for its September quarter, according to MacRumors. Apple guided for revenue growth of nine percent to 11 percent and mid-teens iPhone growth for that period.
That guidance also came with a warning. “For September, we expect to pay even higher memory costs,” Cook said on the July call.
Much will likely depend, however, on whether the Duo’s long wait reflects demand or a thin first production run. Apple hasn’t said how many units it had for preorder, and a 95-day wait can come from either.
Bank of America’s price objective of $370 implies about 7.7 percent upside from Apple’s $343.46 price in the note. It rests on 37 times the bank’s calendar 2027 earnings estimate of $9.98 a share, above Apple’s five-year range of 19 to 35 times, the note said.
That is a rich multiple to pay for a company whose flagship Pro phone is seeing shorter waits. I’d want to see the Nov. 2 iPhone number before treating the Duo sellout as a growth story.
If you are trying to buy a Duo, the practical move is simple: Check your carrier’s site before you settle for Apple’s January date.
Mohan, for his part, is sticking with the stock. He reiterated a Buy rating “on strong capital returns, eventual winner on AI at the edge and optionality from new products/markets.”
Related: Apple extends iPhone Duo delivery, disappointing eager customers