Joby Aviation (JOBY) stock has continued its steep slide, erasing most of the gains it made between 2023 and August 2025, when it surged from $3.10 to $21. The shares have now dropped to a low of $5.27, and the company’s market capitalization has fallen from $15.7 billion to $5.24 billion. With Joby nearing its commercialization phase, the question is whether this sell-off will continue.
Why Joby Aviation stock is falling
The ongoing Joby Aviation’s sell-off has coincided with that of other companies in the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) industry. Ehang, the Chinese eVTOL giant, dropped to $4.20, its lowest level since November 2022 and 85% below its highest point last year.
Archer Aviation, its top competitor in the US, dropped to $4.86 from a high of $14.6 last year. Vertical Aerospace, Eve Holding, and BETA Technologies have all continued their freefall.
The ongoing crash is happening even as Joby nears the commercialization phase of its business, which is expected to happen later this year or early in 2027. Investors are now starting to focus on whether its revenue and profits will surge after it enters the commercialization phase.
Most importantly, there are concerns about the company’s dilution. Its outstanding shares have soared to 986.52 million, up sharply from 604 million in 2022. While it ended the quarter with over $2 billion, there is a risk that it will need to raise additional capital because its profitability will take time.
The company has also suffered a big setback after a jury in Tampa awarded Aerosonic nearly $116.9 million. According to Reuters, the jury determined that Joby owes $68 million for breaching a non-disclosure agreement and $48 million for misappropriating trade secrets regarding air data probes. Joby has disagreed with the verdict and is hoping to appeal.
On the positive side for Joby, analysts expect that its revenue growth has more room to accelerate. The average estimate among analysts is that its annual revenue for this year is $119.5 million, up by 123% from a year earlier. It will then make $219 million next year, driven by its commercialization efforts and its Blade segment.
Another potential catalyst for Joby is that it is seeking to become a big player in the defense industry through its acquisition of Resonant Sciences.
JOBY stock technical analysis: death cross nears
Joby Aviation stock chart | Source: TradingView
The weekly chart shows that the Joby Aviation stock has been in a strong sell-off in the past few months. It has moved from a record high of $20.9 last year to the current $5.25.
The stock has continued to have a series of lower lows and lower highs. At the same time, it has slumped below all moving averages. Worse, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued falling and is nearing the oversold level of 32. It is also nearing the death cross pattern.
This means that it is still not in the oversold level, suggesting that it has more downside to go. If this happens, the stock may continue falling, with the next target to watch being at $3.21, its lowest level in December 2022.
The post Joby Aviation stock slumps toward a death cross: Key reasons behind the selloff appeared first on Invezz