Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell in Seoul trading on Tuesday even as South Korea’s semiconductor exports hit records, exposing a gap between the memory boom and the shares benefiting from it.
By late morning, Samsung was down 1.1%, while SK Hynix had fallen 2.8%. The weakness came despite September semiconductor exports surging 262.8% from a year earlier to a record $60.3 billion.
Fundamentals remain strong, but investors are looking ahead. Foreign selling remains heavy, US Treasury yields are above 5%, and the HBM debate is becoming more selective.
Record exports cannot overpower foreign selling forever
South Korea’s total exports jumped 83.5% year on year in September to a record $120.9 billion, with semiconductors accounting for half.
Those numbers helped Samsung and SK Hynix jump 2.79% and 3.21%, on October 1. Yet foreign investors were still net sellers.
Between September 1 and October 2, foreigners sold a net 20.305 trillion won of KOSPI shares. SK Hynix and Samsung accounted for 17.195 trillion won, or about 85% of that selling.
The pressure continued Tuesday, when foreigners had sold a net 737.21 billion won by 11:20 a.m.
NH Investment & Securities analyst Na Jung-hwan told Seoul Economic Daily that semiconductor companies’ structural growth trend remains intact, but added that “breaking through the top of the trading range will require an improvement in the macro environment.”
Strong exports provide support, but they do not automatically bring foreign buyers back.
Memory boom is no longer one simple trade
Investors are increasingly separating industry strength from company-specific positioning in high-bandwidth memory.
Bernstein expects conventional DRAM prices to rise by the mid-teens to about 20% in the third quarter, followed by another high-single-digit increase in the fourth. It also expects shortages through 2027.
That backdrop supports both companies, but Bernstein analyst Mark Li recently cut his SK Hynix target to 2.7 million won from 3.3 million won, citing more conservative assumptions around HBM progress and pricing.
“We still prefer Samsung among the incumbent suppliers,” Li wrote, according to Investing.com.
Bernstein expects Samsung to gain HBM share, while the transition from HBM3E to HBM4 may take longer than previously assumed. It also lowered its 2027 HBM pricing assumptions.
Record exports show the industry is booming. They do not determine which supplier earns the highest margins from the next generation of AI memory.
Bull case says investors may be looking too far ahead
The counterargument is that today’s shortage may prove more durable than sceptics expect.
A Macquarie sales note said memory supply could tighten significantly through 2027 and 2028, while long-term supply agreements may make earnings more predictable.
Micron reinforced that argument last week. The US memory maker said long-term customer commitments had risen to $32 billion from $22 billion in June, while more than 75% of its fiscal 2027 output was already committed.
Samsung has an immediate opportunity to test whether those conditions are translating into earnings. Its preliminary third-quarter results are due October 8.
Seoul Economic Daily said analysts expect improving memory prices and record exports to support earnings, though won strength could create pressure.
Samsung and SK Hynix are not falling because customers stopped buying memory, as Korea’s export data show the opposite.
The market is looking further ahead, weighing foreign outflows, elevated bond yields and a complicated HBM landscape against tight supply.
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