Updated 2 October 2026. Brent crude’s December contract trades near $102.25 a barrel on Friday morning (OilPrice.com quoted $102.24 at about 05:00 GMT on 2 October; Business News quoted $102.28), after settling at $102.31 on Thursday, a gain of more than $4 on the day. WTI is near $92.65. Verdict: Thursday’s jump was a refined-fuel story layered on a military one. Chinese refiners suspended diesel, petrol and jet fuel exports, and the Wall Street Journal reported a third US aircraft carrier is heading to the Middle East. Pulling the other way, Gulf crude exports are recovering. That leaves Brent pinned around $102 with $98 below and $107 above.
Key facts
- Brent December futures settled at $102.31 on 1 October, up $4.28 or about 4.4 percent, and WTI settled at $92.87, up $2.45, according to the Reuters market report. Early on 2 October Brent was at $102.24 and WTI at $92.62 (OilPrice.com).
- Which contract: every Brent price in this article is the December contract. November expired on 30 September, so week-on-week comparisons on some screens cross a contract roll.
- China halted fuel exports. Reuters reported that Chinese refiners suspended exports of diesel, petrol and jet fuel to destinations beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice, with major refiners cancelling planned October shipments and domestic inventories below pre-war levels (Reuters, as carried by Business News, 2 October).
- A third carrier. The Wall Street Journal reported the US is sending a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East as President Donald Trump considers renewed military action against Iran.
- Three tankers were struck by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz this week (OilPrice.com, 2 October).
- Russia’s diesel export ban runs through 31 October (Reuters; OilPrice.com).
- The offset: Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings from Yanbu and restarted the East-West Pipeline, and Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf exports at 23.3 million barrels a day (Reuters and Goldman Sachs, as carried by Business News).
- Brent gained about 14 percent in September and WTI about 4 percent; Brent was still on track for a weekly decline of roughly 2 percent as of Friday morning (Business News, 2 October).
Why Brent jumped back above $100
The trigger on Thursday was not crude itself. It was the products made from it. Reuters reported that Chinese refiners have suspended exports of diesel, petrol and jet fuel to all destinations other than Hong Kong and Macau, with no end date given, and that major refiners cancelled shipments already planned for October. The reason cited is domestic: inventories inside China are below where they stood before the war.
China is one of Asia’s large suppliers of refined fuel, and the suspension arrives while Russia’s own diesel export ban is in force through 31 October. Two big product exporters stepping back in the same month tightens the market for diesel and jet fuel, and a tighter products market lifts the price refiners are willing to pay for crude. Brent’s December contract added more than $4 in the session and closed at $102.31.
The second driver was military. The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington is sending a third aircraft carrier and as many as 10,000 more troops to the region while Trump weighs renewed action against Iran. Separately, OilPrice.com reported that three tankers were hit by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz this week. Neither report describes a new loss of supply. Both keep the risk premium in the price.
Why it has not gone further
The same week produced the strongest evidence yet that crude supply from the Gulf is coming back. Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings at Yanbu, its Red Sea terminal, and restarted the East-West Pipeline that feeds it. Goldman Sachs puts Gulf exports at 23.3 million barrels a day. “The market is taking stock of a distinctly mixed set of signals this week,” Tim Waterer of KCM Trade said, according to OilPrice.com.
There is also a policy response forming on the products side. Reuters reported that the EU’s energy taskforce is discussing a release of diesel stockpiles, and that Washington has asked European countries to release 120 million barrels over six months. Stock releases do not fix a closed strait, but they are aimed at exactly the part of the market that moved on Thursday.
That is why Brent is sitting at $102 on Friday morning rather than extending. One supply story (refined fuel) got worse this week; the other (Gulf crude) got better.
Brent scenarios: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent (December) | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | ~$98 | Gulf exports keep recovering, Europe confirms a diesel stock release, and no strike follows the carrier deployment. Thursday’s rally unwinds. | $98.03 is where the December contract settled on 30 September, the day before the China headline ($102.31 minus Thursday’s $4.28 gain). Goldman’s 23.3 million barrels a day Gulf export estimate is the supply argument. |
| Base | $100 – $104 | China’s export halt stays in place, Russia’s ban runs to 31 October, the military build-up continues without action. Mixed signals, range trade. | Brent held $102.24 – $102.31 between Thursday’s settlement and Friday morning. BNEF’s David Doherty expects the Hormuz closure and the US blockade of Iran to “persist in some form into the new year” (OilPrice.com). |
| Bull | ~$107 | Further tanker strikes in Hormuz, renewed US action against Iran, or a second Asian exporter restricting fuel shipments. | $107.29 was the front-month Brent price on 28 September after Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz offer (TradingEconomics; that was the since-expired November contract). The WSJ-reported carrier and troop deployment is the catalyst. |
The bear level is about 4 percent below Friday’s price and the bull level about 5 percent above it. These are near-term reference levels drawn from prices the market has actually traded in the past week, not forecasts.
What to watch
- Any clarification from Beijing. The suspension is “until further notice”. An end date, or an exemption list, would take the heat out of diesel and jet fuel first and crude second.
- Europe’s stockpile decision. A confirmed diesel release is the most direct counterweight to the Chinese and Russian restrictions.
- The carrier’s arrival and what follows. The WSJ report describes a deployment while Trump considers action, not a decision to act.
- Hormuz incidents. Three tankers struck in one week is the number to compare next week’s against.
- 31 October. The scheduled end of Russia’s diesel export ban.
Quick take: Thursday’s $4 move came from refined fuel, not from a new loss of crude. China and Russia are both holding diesel at home in October while Gulf crude exports recover, so the market has one tightening story and one easing story at the same time. Brent at $102 reflects both. $98 is the level if the easing story wins; $107 needs the military headline to become an event.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude price today?
Brent’s December contract was trading at about $102.24 to $102.28 a barrel on the morning of 2 October 2026, according to OilPrice.com and Business News. It settled at $102.31 on 1 October.
Why did oil prices rise on 1 October?
Reuters reported that Chinese refiners suspended exports of diesel, petrol and jet fuel beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice. The Wall Street Journal also reported that the US is sending a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 more troops to the Middle East.
Why does a Chinese fuel export halt move crude prices?
It removes refined products from the export market while Russia’s diesel export ban is also in force through 31 October. Tighter diesel and jet fuel supply raises refining margins, which supports the price of the crude those fuels are made from.
Why do some charts show Brent lower than a week ago?
The November Brent contract expired on 30 September and screens now show December, which was trading at a lower price. FinanceFeeds explained the gap in its guide to the November expiry and the December roll.
What could push Brent back below $100?
A continued recovery in Gulf exports, which Goldman Sachs estimates at 23.3 million barrels a day, and a European diesel stockpile release. The December contract settled near $98 on 30 September before the China headline.
Where is WTI trading?
WTI settled at $92.87 on 1 October and was near $92.62 early on 2 October (OilPrice.com), leaving the Brent-WTI spread at a little under $10.
Related coverage
- Brent’s November contract expired at $103.50: how the December roll works
- Brent at $107 after Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz offer
- Brent technical view: $106.70 target, $94.85 support
Sources: OilPrice.com (Brent and WTI quotes, tanker strikes, Tim Waterer and David Doherty comments, 2 October 2026); Business News (prices, weekly and September performance, 2 October 2026), carrying Reuters reporting on China’s fuel export suspension, Russia’s diesel export ban, Saudi loadings at Yanbu and the EU stockpile discussion, Goldman Sachs’ Gulf export estimate and the Wall Street Journal report on the third carrier and additional troops; Reuters market report (1 October settlements); CNBC ICE Brent December quote page (previous close $102.31); TradingEconomics (28 September price).
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Commodity prices move continuously and the figures above were accurate at the time of writing. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before trading.