Renting out computing power to artificial-intelligence developers is fast becoming a central pillar of SpaceX’s business, and a growing number of analysts believe the opportunity is only beginning.
Three brokerages issued upbeat notes to clients on Monday, each pointing to the company’s data centres as a major source of future earnings.
SpaceX (SPCX) has emerged as a significant seller of the computing capacity that AI firms need to build their models.
Regulatory filings show that Alphabet and Anthropic have committed to spending billions of dollars with the company.
In the quarter ended June 30, SpaceX generated $2.6 billion in AI revenue, putting the business at an annualized run rate of roughly $10.2 billion.
Wall Street expects that figure to climb sharply, with AI revenue projected to exceed $67 billion by 2027 and reach an estimated $275 billion by 2030.
While AI remains only one part of SpaceX’s broader business, its rapid growth could make it the company’s largest revenue segment in the years ahead.
The analyst notes arrived as SpaceX marked a technical milestone.
Its Starship rocket launched early Monday from Starbase, Texas, and reached orbit for the first time.
On the vehicle’s 14th test flight, the company also deployed 26 of its new Starlink V3 satellites.
TD Cowen sees compute overtaking Starlink
TD Cowen analysts, led by John Blackledge, initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $200 price target, implying an upside of about 37% from Monday’s close.
In their note, they described the computing business as the “biggest near-term driver” of revenue, citing a sharp imbalance between supply and demand across the AI industry.
The brokerage expects about 35% of SpaceX’s 2026 sales to come from activities linked to selling computing power.
It says the segment could outgrow Starlink, the company’s “crown jewel”, as early as the first quarter of 2027.
The projections climb from there.
TD Cowen estimates that AI compute leasing will generate roughly 60% of revenue in 2027 and 65% by 2028.
It forecasts compound annual revenue growth of 62% between 2026 and 2031, and sees scope for nearly 1,000 low Earth orbit launches by 2031.
Blackledge also expects close to half of SpaceX’s planned computing capacity to be rented to outside companies over the next few years.
The rest would support in-house work on new models and products, including AI agents.
Customer list remains partly hidden
Gauging the true size of the business is not straightforward.
SpaceX has disclosed five customers, but only three have been publicly identified: Anthropic, Google and the start-up Reflection AI.
A fourth customer, revealed in July, has prompted speculation among some analysts that it is the US Defense Department.
Chief financial officer Bret Johnsen also announced another computing deal earlier this month, which is due to begin in December.
Deutsche Bank expects more deals
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu estimates that the five signed customers together represent $54.5 billion in revenue run rate, a measure that projects full-year revenue from performance over a short period.
SpaceX has set a target of $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026.
Yu rates the stock a buy with a $235 price target.
Pointing to recent capacity goals announced by chief executive Elon Musk, he said: “With more capacity coming online, we expect at least a few more large deals to materialize given industry constraints.”
Evercore focuses on GPU build-out
Evercore ISI’s Kutgun Maral, a long-standing bull on the stock, said the next catalyst may lie in SpaceX’s appetite for graphics processing units, and one that investors may be overlooking.
He reiterated an Outperform rating and a $230 price target, an upside of 58% over Monday’s close.
Maral said a post by Musk on X had shed light on the company’s expansion at its Colossus 1 and 2 sites.
“SPCX remains one of our top picks, and we think investors should be leaning into the story, as a post by Elon Musk on X detailing current and expected GPUs across Colossus 1 and 2 indicates the Street is underestimating the company’s 2H26 compute and therefore 2027 revenue and EBITDA,” he said.
According to Maral, the post shows 780,000 GPUs online across the two sites.
Musk expects at least two, or three if the company gets lucky, tranches of 220,000 GB300 chips by year-end.
Evercore estimates that would lift capacity to about 2.3 gigawatts with two tranches and about 2.7 gigawatts with three, well above the consensus of 2.1 gigawatts.
The near-term cost is higher spending, with second-half 2026 capital expenditure estimates likely to rise sharply.
In return, Maral said, 2027 revenue and EBITDA would land significantly ahead of Street forecasts, even before crediting the company’s ambition to reach the upper end of 5 to 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027.
The Street is at 5.9 gigawatts.
Why some investors are waiting
Maral acknowledged that the investment case is complicated and that many investors are holding back.
They want more evidence on Starship’s reusability and rapid ramp-up, on terrestrial compute, including build cadence, internal versus external allocation and pricing durability, and on the feasibility of orbital compute and Starlink mobile.
Even so, he argued that the market is missing the bigger picture.
“However, we don’t think execution across terrestrial compute is getting the credit it deserves, and that the colossus ramp is being missed,” he said.
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