Boeing stock (NYSE: BA) is losing one of its most anticipated geopolitical catalysts just as investors are becoming more concerned about a problem much closer to home.
Hopes that Thursday’s US-China summit will produce a fresh Chinese commitment for hundreds of Boeing jets have faded, leaving the planemaker focused on completing an existing 200-aircraft agreement.
Yet Boeing hardly lacks customers, as its total backlog reached a record $715 billion at the end of June.
The bigger question for shareholders is whether Boeing can build and deliver those aircraft quickly enough to turn its enormous order book into the cash flow Wall Street expects.
China is no longer the main catalyst
Expectations had built that aircraft purchases could feature in the Trump-Xi talks, potentially adding hundreds of planes to Boeing’s pipeline.
As per reports, hopes for a fresh commitment are fading, with negotiations still centred on finalising the 200-aircraft purchase outlined in May.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said about 140 aircraft were in a “good state”, with another 10 moving through documentation.
Boeing chief Kelly Ortberg has also played down expectations for a new summit announcement, saying further orders would be announced by airlines on their own timelines.
China still matters. Boeing has largely missed out on major Chinese orders since 2017, allowing Airbus to deepen its position in one of aviation’s most important markets.
Another China order would enlarge an already enormous queue, but would not solve the problem weighing on estimates.
Production is the harder problem
Boeing’s immediate challenge is converting that backlog into deliveries.
Ortberg said on September 16 that Boeing was producing towards 47 737s a month but had not stabilised at that rate. Wing production has been one constraint.
Boeing has stabilised 787 output at eight aircraft a month but still needs better engine availability before moving sustainably towards 10.
Those delays are feeding into Wall Street models.
Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu cut her 2026 free-cash-flow forecast to $2.2 billion from $2.9 billion and reduced her 2027 estimate to $4.8 billion from $6.7 billion. She said stabilising 737 production at 47 aircraft per month “is taking a bit more time”.
Jefferies kept a Buy rating but lowered its price target to $265 from $295.
Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens framed the issue in a September 21 report, saying Boeing’s operational and financial turnaround continues “with every jet it can deliver”.
October brings another operational risk
The production debate matters more because Boeing is approaching a labour deadline.
Its contract with the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace, or SPEEA, expires on October 6. Boeing says negotiations are continuing and has presented revised offers covering engineers and technical workers.
Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein said the recent Boeing selloff looked “a bit dramatic”, while maintaining a Buy rating and $270 target. But BofA identified a potential SPEEA strike as the key near-term risk.
Wall Street has not abandoned the turnaround thesis, but analysts are becoming more cautious about how quickly production improvements translate into cash generation.
Boeing shares closed at $199.93 on September 23, up 1.12% from its previous close.
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