Updated 11 September 2026
ORCL last trade: $152.94 at the 10 September close, down $8.69 or 5.38% on the day. In the extended session the stock recovered to between $159.26 (+4.13%, stockanalysis.com, 7:59 p.m. ET) and $159.58 (+4.34%, Investing.com). Those two prints disagree slightly and neither is an opening price – after-hours moves routinely fail to survive the open.
Verdict: Oracle beat on revenue, earnings and backlog, and the backlog number is genuinely enormous – $664 billion of remaining performance obligations, $33 billion above consensus. The reason the shares fell 5.4% during the session anyway is on the cash flow statement, not the income statement: capital expenditure of $28.5 billion against $19.3 billion of revenue pushed free cash flow to negative $5.4 billion. The bull case and the bear case are now reading the same release.
Key facts
- Revenue $19.3 billion, up 30% year over year, against the roughly $19.14 billion analysts expected.
- Adjusted EPS $1.92 versus $1.74 expected, up 30%. GAAP EPS was $1.56, up 55%, on net income of $4.7 billion (+60%).
- Total cloud revenue $11.6 billion, up 62%. Within that, cloud infrastructure (OCI) was $7.4 billion, up 121%, and cloud applications (SaaS) were $4.2 billion, up 10%.
- RPO of $664 billion, up $209 billion year over year and $26 billion quarter over quarter, versus StreetAccount consensus of $630.6 billion.
- Capex $28.5 billion in a single quarter, against $8.5 billion in the year-ago quarter.
- Free cash flow negative $5.4 billion, versus negative $362 million a year earlier – despite record operating cash flow of about $23 billion.
- FY27 guidance raised: at least $90 billion of revenue and $8.10 of adjusted EPS.
- The legacy business is shrinking: software revenue fell 3% to $5.5 billion. Services rose 5% to $1.4 billion and hardware rose 15% to $0.8 billion.
The number that moved the stock was not the beat
Oracle’s fiscal first quarter, reported after the close on 10 September, was a clean beat on every headline metric. Revenue of $19.3 billion grew 30% year over year in both reported and constant currency. Adjusted earnings of $1.92 per share cleared the $1.74 consensus by a wide margin. Non-GAAP operating income reached $8.2 billion, up 31%, and the company held a 42% non-GAAP operating margin while building data centres at an unprecedented rate.
And yet the shares closed the regular 10 September session at $152.94, down 5.38%, before recovering roughly 4% in extended trading. The market spent the session pricing something the income statement does not show.
That something is on the cash flow statement. Capital expenditure in the quarter was $28.5 billion, per Oracle’s own 8-K exhibit filed with the SEC – more than three times the $8.5 billion Oracle spent in the comparable quarter a year ago, and more than the company’s entire quarterly revenue. Operating cash flow was a record, at roughly $23 billion. It was still not enough: free cash flow came in at negative $5.4 billion, against negative $362 million a year earlier.
Oracle’s framing is that the headline capex overstates the strain. Management points to net cash capex of about $18 billion once customer prepayments and financing arrangements are accounted for, and guides full-year capex to $90-95 billion with net cash capex not exceeding $70 billion. That is a real distinction. It is also an admission that a meaningful share of the build is being funded by customers paying in advance and by third-party financing rather than by the business itself.
What $664 billion of backlog does and does not tell you
RPO is the number the bull case rests on, and at $664 billion it is close to seven times Oracle’s guided annual revenue. It grew $209 billion year over year and beat consensus by roughly $33 billion. Multi-cloud database offerings – Oracle’s database running inside Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud and AWS – grew 353%.
The caveat matters. According to Oracle’s Q1 FY2027 earnings presentation, the majority of the RPO growth in the quarter came from prepay arrangements or bring-your-own-hardware models. Those are contracted obligations, and they are real. They also convert to revenue on a different profile, and at different economics, than a straightforward consumption contract – and in the prepay case the customer’s cash is what is funding the capex that shows up as negative free cash flow.
In other words, the same structural fact produces both the record backlog and the cash burn. Investors who are bullish on Oracle and investors who are bearish on it are looking at the identical disclosure and weighting the two halves differently. That is why a 30% revenue beat and a 5% down day are not a contradiction.
The balance sheet is the constraint
Oracle carries debt in the region of $125-130 billion, and reported figures vary by source and by measurement date, so treat any single number with care. What is not in dispute is the direction: the company is funding a $90-95 billion annual build while generating negative free cash flow, and has signalled further capital raising. A business with a 42% operating margin can carry a lot of leverage. A business that burns cash while carrying it has less room if demand timing slips.
This is the thread running through Oracle’s recent disclosures rather than a new development. FinanceFeeds covered the capex funding and debt question in August, and the preview of this quarter flagged the staff reduction and the cash burn going in. The Q1 print did not resolve the question; it enlarged both sides of it.
Scenario table
Reference price for every level below is the $152.94 close on 10 September 2026. Note that these are scenarios, not forecasts, and each is tied to a named anchor.
| Scenario | Level | Anchor |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | ~$115 | A retest of the 52-week low of $114.50. The path: cash burn continues, the signalled capital raise dilutes or adds leverage into a weaker tape, and RPO conversion slips a quarter or two. This is roughly 25% below the current price. |
| Base | $155-175 | The stock holds around the extended-session level of roughly $159 and trades on FY27 delivery. Anchored on the guided $8.10 of adjusted FY27 EPS – the range implies roughly 19-22 times that number. |
| Bull | ~$241 | The 12-month average price target across 44 analysts compiled by stockanalysis.com. The Street’s own dispersion is extreme: MarketBeat’s 49-analyst average is about $261, the median is $257.55, and the published range runs from $156.55 to $420. Citizens’ Patrick Walravens reiterated Market Outperform with a $285 target on 9 September, before the print. |
The spread between the low ($156.55) and high ($420) published targets is itself the story. Analysts are not disagreeing about Oracle’s demand. They are disagreeing about what the build costs and who ultimately pays for it.
Quick Take
Oracle beat on revenue, EPS and backlog and raised full-year guidance, and the stock still fell 5.4% during the 10 September session before recovering about 4% after hours. The gap is capex: $28.5 billion in one quarter, free cash flow of negative $5.4 billion, and a majority of the record $664 billion RPO growth coming from prepay and bring-your-own-hardware arrangements. Oracle’s demand is not in question. Its funding model is. Watch net cash capex against the $70 billion full-year cap, and watch whether the after-hours recovery survives the 11 September open – it frequently does not.
Frequently asked questions
What did Oracle report for Q1 fiscal 2027?
Revenue of $19.3 billion, up 30% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $1.92, against consensus of roughly $19.14 billion and $1.74. GAAP net income was $4.7 billion, up 60%, and GAAP EPS was $1.56, up 55%. Results were released after the market close on 10 September 2026.
How fast is Oracle’s cloud business growing?
Total cloud revenue rose 62% to $11.6 billion. Cloud infrastructure (OCI) grew 121% to $7.4 billion, while cloud applications (SaaS) grew 10% to $4.2 billion. Multi-cloud database offerings grew 353%.
Why did ORCL stock fall if Oracle beat expectations?
The shares closed 10 September down 5.38% at $152.94. The concern is cash, not growth: capital expenditure of $28.5 billion in the quarter exceeded total revenue and drove free cash flow to negative $5.4 billion, compared with negative $362 million a year earlier. The stock recovered roughly 4% in extended trading after the release.
What is Oracle’s RPO and why does it matter?
Remaining performance obligations – contracted revenue not yet recognised – stood at $664 billion, up $209 billion year over year and about $33 billion above the StreetAccount consensus of $630.6 billion. It matters because it is the clearest evidence of booked AI infrastructure demand. The qualification is that Oracle’s own earnings presentation attributes the majority of the quarter’s RPO growth to prepay arrangements or bring-your-own-hardware models.
What is Oracle’s guidance for fiscal 2027?
At least $90 billion of total revenue and $8.10 of adjusted EPS. For the second quarter, Oracle guided revenue growth of 30-34% and cloud revenue growth of 65-71% in US dollars, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.85-$1.93.
How much is Oracle spending on capex this year?
Full-year fiscal 2027 capital expenditure guidance is $90-95 billion, with net cash capex – after customer prepayments and financing arrangements – guided not to exceed $70 billion. First-quarter capex was $28.5 billion against $8.5 billion a year earlier.
What do analysts think ORCL is worth?
Published 12-month targets diverge sharply. The average across 44 analysts compiled by stockanalysis.com is about $241; MarketBeat’s 49-analyst average is about $261 with a median of $257.55 and a range of $156.55 to $420. Citizens reiterated Market Outperform with a $285 target on 9 September. Oracle’s 52-week range is $114.50 to $345.72.
How far is Oracle below its highs?
At the 10 September close of $152.94, ORCL sits roughly 56% below its 52-week high of $345.72, with a market capitalisation of about $440 billion.
Sources
Oracle Corporation Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (Q1 FY2027 results); Oracle Q1 FY2027 earnings call presentation as reported by Investing.com; CNBC’s Q1 FY2027 earnings coverage (10 September 2026); Benzinga’s full Q1 2027 earnings call transcript; price and analyst-target data from stockanalysis.com and MarketBeat as of the 10 September 2026 close.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. FinanceFeeds does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security. Figures are accurate as of the date of publication and market prices change continuously. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.