US stock futures were mixed on Friday, with Nasdaq 100 contracts outperforming as investors waited for the August jobs report to test Wall Street’s latest rebound.
Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 135 points 0.4%, S&P 500 contracts edged up 0.1% and Dow futures were little changed in early trading.
Stocks had rallied on Thursday after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signalled he could support holding rates steady this month if inflation keeps cooling.
That pushed the implied chance of a September increase back towards 50%, leaving payrolls as the next major test for markets before the Labor Day weekend.
5 things to know before Wall Street opens
1. Payrolls could reset the Fed debate
The August jobs report, due at 8:30 am ET, is the main event. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by about 53,000 after a 23,000 decline in July, with unemployment forecast to hold at 4.1%.
Another weak print would reinforce concerns that hiring has lost momentum and could make a September rate increase harder to justify.
A stronger report could revive pressure on Treasury yields and expensive growth stocks.
2. Waller has given markets breathing room
Waller said recent data showed signs of disinflation and indicated he would favour holding rates steady if that progress continues.
Markets responded quickly, with September hike odds falling to roughly 50% from about 63%.
Peter Williams of 22V Research said Waller still remains data-dependent but appears reluctant to tighten unless inflation forces the issue.
That stance helped rate-sensitive technology shares rebound on Thursday.
3. Nasdaq futures lead the premarket move
Nasdaq 100 futures gained around 0.4%, compared with a roughly 0.1% rise for the S&P 500, while Dow futures hovered near flat.
The S&P 500 was about 0.7% below its record closing high.
The move also matters for investors using ETF platforms to track broad US equity benchmarks, particularly technology-heavy funds.
Friday’s data could determine whether this week’s recovery develops into another push towards records or fades as bond yields rise again.
4. Lululemon and Adobe slide before the bell
Lululemon tumbled about 18% in premarket trading after cutting its full-year outlook for the second time this year, deepening concerns about weak sales in the Americas just days before incoming CEO Heidi O’Neill takes charge.
Adobe fell around 3% after naming Anil Chakravarthy as chief executive from December 1.
The investors had widely viewed creative-business head David Wadhwani as a likely successor to Shantanu Narayen, adding uncertainty around the transition.
5. September seasonality returns to the conversation
The Labor Day weekend also brings Wall Street’s difficult September history back into focus.
SimCorp’s Melissa Brown found that September has produced an average loss of 58 basis points over nearly 45 years, making it the weakest month of the year.
The negative performance has historically been concentrated in the second half, when average returns fall by more than 1%.
Brown cautioned that the pattern varies widely between years and should not be treated as a standalone sell signal.
With CPI and PPI data due next week, rates and inflation are likely to matter more than the calendar.
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