To some investors, SpaceX (SPCX) shares have already lost their shine. Now a fresh warning is landing at the worst possible moment.
The stock closed at $134 on Thursday, Aug. 20, down about 6% over the past five days and roughly 17% for the year so far.
That is a long way from the $225.64 high it touched days after its June debut.
Most of Wall Street still tells clients to buy. One analyst in Germany just told them to sell.
That single call, paired with a wave of freshly unlocked shares hitting the market, is the reason SpaceX investors are paying close attention this week.
Here is what the warning says, and what it means if you own the stock.
Why DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner rates SpaceX a Sell
DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner started covering SpaceX with a Sell rating and a $100 price target, according to 24/7 Wall St.
From Aug. 20’s $134 close, that target points to a drop of about 25%.
Leistner warned of what he called “crash risk in the valuation orbit.”
His point is simple. The money SpaceX must spend to build its future businesses is so large that today’s price is hard to defend.
That view puts him nearly alone.
SPCX carries a Moderate Buy rating, with an average target of $228.59. Leistner sits at the very bottom of that range.
The spending problem behind the $100 SpaceX target
The core of Leistner’s argument is the cash SpaceX is spending.
SpaceX spent $18.37 billion on capital projects in the second quarter, with $15.83 billion of that going to AI computing infrastructure, Reuters reported.
The company’s management also guided the next two quarters to a similar level.
Capital expenditure is the money a company spends building long-term assets such as data centers and rockets. SpaceX is spending it faster than the business currently earns.
The company also lost $541 million in the second quarter, even as revenue jumped.
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Then there is the deal-making.
SpaceX closed a $60 billion all-stock purchase of AI coding platform Cursor on Aug. 14, issuing about 389 million new Class A shares, Investing.com reported.
When a company pays with new stock, existing shareholders own a smaller slice of the same business.
That is dilution, and it is a direct cost to current holders.
SpaceX also approached AI startup Cognition, valued near $26 billion, before those talks ended.
To Leistner, the pattern signals an appetite for large, stock-funded deals.
What the AI math has to prove
Leistner also questions the $28.5 trillion total addressable market SpaceX laid out in its IPO filing, a figure that counts space, connectivity, and AI.
A total addressable market is the full revenue a company could earn if it captured every possible customer. It is a ceiling, not a forecast.
AI makes up about 93% of that $28.5 trillion claim. Space and connectivity, the parts making real money today, are under 7%.
So the valuation leans heavily on a business that must still prove it can deliver years of profit.
The share unlock making the timing worse
The Sell call did not arrive on a quiet day.
SpaceX’s second post-IPO lockup tranche took effect on Aug. 20, freeing up to 319 million restricted shares.
That’s about 7% of the shares under the 180-day lock-up, GuruFocus reported.
A lockup expiration lets employees and early backers sell shares they were previously barred from selling. More sellers can mean more downward pressure on the price.
Related: Jim Cramer sees the writing on the wall for SpaceX investors
The first unlock on Aug. 6 was far larger at 911.5 million shares, and the market absorbed it without a collapse.
This time the added supply arrived alongside a high-profile Sell rating, and the stock slipped below its $135 IPO price.
More unlocks are coming. The lockup releases shares across more than a dozen dates rather than all at once, so holders face repeated waves of new supply into late 2026.
One name is not selling. CEO Elon Musk, who owns about 48% of SpaceX and controls more than four-fifths of the voting power, is restricted from selling until June 12, 2027.
Where DZ Bank sits against the rest of Wall Street
Leistner is the most bearish major voice, but he is not the only skeptic.
Five-star Phillip Securities analyst Glenn Thum holds a Sell rating and a $75 target, citing customer concentration and contracts that clients can exit on 90 days’ notice.
The bulls sit far higher. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas rates SpaceX a Buy with a $300 base target, pointing to Starlink cash flow and AI upside.
Here is how the split looks right now:
SpaceX price targets from bears to bulls
- DZ Bank (Markus Leistner): Sell, $100, due to heavy capital spending and dilutive deals
- Phillip Securities (Glenn Thum): Sell, $75, due to customer concentration and cancelable contracts
- Morgan Stanley (Adam Jonas): Buy, $300 base, due to Starlink cash flow and AI growth
- Wall Street average: $228.59
The distance between $75 and $300 is unusually wide, and it tells you how much division exists on what SpaceX is worth.
SpaceX stock vs. the S&P 500
A quick comparison shows how differently SpaceX has traded from the broad market.
Year to date, SpaceX is down about 17%. The S&P 500 has held up far better over the same stretch.
Over the past five days, SpaceX fell about 6%, while the index moved only modestly.
The point is that SpaceX swings much harder than the market in both directions, so it behaves like a high-growth technology bet rather than a steady industrial holding.
What SpaceX holders can do now
For anyone holding the stock, the practical questions come down to time frame and tolerance for large price swings.
Key points for SpaceX shareholders
- More supply is scheduled. Additional lockup tranches unlock across late 2026, which can keep pressure on the price, even without bad news.
- Spending must turn into profit. SpaceX guided to sustained multibillion-dollar capex, so the AI bet has to convert into durable earnings.
- The bull case is long-dated. Morgan Stanley’s target rests on growth years out, not this quarter.
None of this is a recommendation to buy or sell.
A long-term holder who believes in Starlink and the AI push may look past this unlock-driven weakness. To them, it is a short-term problem.
Anyone who prefers lower risk has real reasons for caution. The repeated share supply and the negative earnings are real risks, not distractions.
Two things are worth watching over the coming quarters.
- Whether SpaceX turns its cloud contracts into multi-year deals instead of ones clients can exit in 90 days
- Whether insiders actually sell as more shares unlock, or hold like they did after the Aug. 6 release
Those two answers will tell you more than any single price target.
Related: Louis Navellier sets eye-opening Nvidia stock price target for rest of this year