Stocks are still having a relatively strong 2026, but the ride has been bumpy, particularly this summer, when the Nasdaq fell 10% from its peak to its low. The gyrations have gotten Jim Cramer’s attention, leading him to warn about a flood of IPOs fueled by year-to-date gains.
So far, the S&P 500, Dow Jones 30, and Nasdaq are up 12.6%, 11.2%, and 13.3%, respectively, in 2026, and investors clearly continue to have a huge appetite for new stocks.
SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO on June 12 is a testament to that: Elon Musk’s business started trading after pricing the largest U.S. IPO ever at $135 a share, according to Reuters; a deal that yielded nearly $85.7 billion. OpenAI and Anthropic are also filing confidentially to go public, according to TechCrunch.
However, that IPO optimism may have a downside that investors are overlooking.
In the August 19 Mad Money episode, veteran Wall Street pundit Jim Cramer, who has been tracking markets for nearly 40 years, argued that the renewed rush of companies into public markets might create a broader problem for stocks, drawing on lessons from earlier speculative booms.
Cramer says IPO boom could hit broader market
Cramer is warning investors not to overlook a simple market force: supply.
He urged stock market investors to be “extra wary of the IPO cycle,” as a surge in new listings could initially appear to signal healthy risk appetite while creating pressure elsewhere in the market.
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“We get this deluge of new deals,” Cramer said. “At first, many of them explode higher.”
Looking at SpaceX’s example, the stock eventually skyrocketed to nearly $225.64 on June 16, roughly 67% above the IPO price, before pulling back per Yahoo Finance data.
That sort of initial enthusiasm can encourage a lot more businesses to go public. Every IPO also adds many more shares competing for the same pool of investor capital.
As Cramer put it, new deals continue “flooding the market with new stock supply,” and that supply “ultimately drags us down.”
That effectively creates a major capital-allocation issue.
When investors pour money into newly listed companies, they’ll need to pull money out of existing ones. Portfolio managers might potentially trim existing holdings to make a lot more room for hotter new names, creating a ton of pressure that can spread beyond the IPO market itself.
“The stock market is like any other market,” Cramer said. “It’s all about supply and demand. Too much supply and prices are going to be lower.”
Moreover, the bigger risk comes when things go awry.
Cramer said successful IPOs create a “palpable sense of exuberance”. However, once newer deals no longer attract the same enthusiasm, that excitement can reverse.
“When the deals start attracting less interest, the exuberance turns into hostility,” he said. “And then the whole market, not just the IPOs, tends to get slammed.”
Cramer pointed to 2020 and 2021, when hundreds of traditional IPOs and SPAC mergers bombarded the stock market, and to the dot-com era, when speculative fervor collided with excessive supply.
According to Renaissance Capital, 397 traditional IPOs landed in 2021, the most in the past couple of decades, and more than double the roughly 178 annual average from 2014 through 2019.
Cramer says investors are watching the wrong risks
Beyond the IPO warning, Cramer made the broader point that investors tend to lose money, focusing too much on risks the market has already absorbed.
“When there’s a widely held consensus view about something, anything, be it positive or negative, you have to assume that view is already being discounted by the stock market,” he said. Once fear becomes universal, the likely damage is already reflected in the prices.
That’s a sentiment he also has for investors interpreting the economy, arguing that the pessimism is ill-founded because “two-thirds of our economy may be doing better,” as I covered in another piece
That’s why Cramer is encouraging investors to look for what the crowd might be missing.
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“The real threat is the one that you don’t see coming,” he said. That implies that the consensus worries could still be real, but they might no longer be the most useful guide for positioning.
Moreover, Cramer extended that thinking to individual stocks, warning investors tend to mistake dramatic price action for fundamental information.
A steep selloff could simply reflect overbought stocks cooling off, while a rally in a beaten-down name might be nothing more than an oversold bounce.
According to him, the more useful signals are often counterintuitive.
If a stock jumps following a downgrade, it might suggest bad news is already priced in. On the flip side, if a company reports a strong quarter and raises guidance but the shares fall, Wall Street might be signaling that earnings have peaked.
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Cramer’s recent recommendations suggest he’s getting a lot more selective about where the fundementals actually justify the enthusiasm.
Nvidia (NVDA) still remains the clearest example.
According to Cramer, who recently likened the stock to a macro indicator, Nvidia has repeatedly looked pricey based on forward estimates, only to “trump those estimates” so decisively that the stock later appeared cheap.
He called that pattern effectively “the secret to NVIDIA literally since 2012.”
That fits his broader enthusiasm for AI infrastructure names, where he has consistently pointed to persistent data center demand.
In August, Cramer said there was ample evidence that older Nvidia GPUs retained economic value, which added weight to his argument that mounting AI CapEx might not have a longer payoff period than the bears assume.
Among the AI hyperscalers, Amazon (AMZN) was a standout.
According to CNBC, Cramer praised CEO Andy Jassy for finally offering investors clarity on how it will monetize its enormous AI spending. Likewise, he remains constructive on Microsoft (MSFT) primarily due to Azure’s tremendous growth of late.
Another area Cramer urged investors to look at was beyond mega-cap tech, particularly cybersecurity.
With AI creating a lot more complex threats, he pointed to companies like Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) as major beneficiaries.
Another area he’s closely monitoring is healthcare.
In early August, Cramer said Eli Lilly (LLY) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) had delivered healthy quarterly results and deserved to be scooped on the weakness, describing them as examples of innovative “non-tech tech” companies as reported by Yahoo Finance.
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